Based on the coal demand under the 1.5 ℃ scenario, the amount of coal production in China was estimated in this study. According to the mutual relationship between the factors influencing coal production, an economet...Based on the coal demand under the 1.5 ℃ scenario, the amount of coal production in China was estimated in this study. According to the mutual relationship between the factors influencing coal production, an econometric model was constructed based on simultaneous equations, and the synergistic effect of each factor on the coal industry was estimated under the 1.5 ℃ scenario. Then, predictions were respectively made in the five aspects： coal production, coal science and technology progress, employment number, safe production level, and occupational health level, in different scenarios from 2016 to 2050. The results showed that before 2040, the comprehensive negative effect of the 1.5 ℃ situation is more than or equals to the positive effect. The 1.5 ℃ scenario has the biggest negative impact on employment, whose solution should be the focus. By 2050, the positive effects of the 1.5℃ scenario exceed the negative effect because of the enhancement in technical level and in the attention given to the whole production. Safety is improved, and health defects decline and the most obvious positive effect is on the ecological environment. The decrease of coal production will reduce the ecological environmental damage and significantly improve the ecological environment. In general, the prediction of 1.5 ℃ scenario promotes the increase of scientific production capacity and promotes the orderly development of coal. It has strengthened the safety and health protection degree, made the coal industry more efficient and competitive, and avoided or reduced the impact of coal development on the ecological environment and achieved environmental friendliness. However, the 1.5 ℃ situation also increases the employment pressure of the society, which affects the economic development of the major coal producing areas, but the situation can be overcome through the transformation and upgrading of the region. Finally, the impacts of various factors under the 1.5 ℃ scenario were evaluated through a unified comparison of the synergistic effect monetization using the cost and payment willingness methods. Based on the research results, suggestions on the regulation of coal production were proposed relating to resettlement of workers, protection of the ecological environment, and improvement of workers＇ health.展开更多
Combined with recent historical climate data and two periods of land use datasets from remote sensing data, we test the net primary productivity (NPP) data sets in North Chinamodelled by the satellite data-driven Glob...Combined with recent historical climate data and two periods of land use datasets from remote sensing data, we test the net primary productivity (NPP) data sets in North Chinamodelled by the satellite data-driven Global Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM) for detecting thewidespread spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of climate and land use change onthe regional NPP. Our results show that over the past 20 years, the mean annual temperature in thestudy region has remarkably increased by more than 0.064 ℃, but over the same period, there hasbeen a 1.49 mm decrease in annual precipitation and decrease in NPP by an annual rate of 6.9 TgC.The NPP changes in the study region were greatly affected by the average temperature andprecipitation by ten-day periods as well as the seasonal temperature and precipitation in the studyregion. The correlation between seasonal NPP and seasonal precipitation and temperature is highlyconsistent with land cover spatially, and the correlation coefficient changes with the changes ofvegetation types. The analysis reveals that the related areas in land use change only take up 5.45%of the whole studied region, so the climate changes dominate the impacts on the NPP in the wholestudy region (90% of the total). However, land use plays an absolute dominative role in areas withland cover changes, accounting for 97% of the total. From 1981 to 2000, the NPP in the whole studyregion remarkably reduced due to obvious precipitation decrease and temperature rise. Between twoperiods of land use (about 10 years), the changes in climate are predicted to promote a decrease inNPP by 78 ( + -0.6) TgC, and integrated impacts of climate changes and land use to promote adecrease in NPP by 87(+-0.8) TgC.展开更多
Considering the importance of the anticipated intelligence issue on the current scenario, this article aims at understanding the scientific production about the subject, contributing to future researchers with greater...Considering the importance of the anticipated intelligence issue on the current scenario, this article aims at understanding the scientific production about the subject, contributing to future researchers with greater academic knowledge about the productivity in the area. Therefore, a bibliometric research was carried out on weak signals and correlated matters between 1980 and 2010 and was supported by the literature review about the subject. The suggested analysis contributes to greater academic knowledge on productivity in the field, providing a broad perspective for future researchers who catch sight of this subject as a potential for further studies.展开更多
Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and i...Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.展开更多
Comparative performance analysis of four irrigation schemes within Cagayan River Basin was assessed using comparative performance indicators between the years 2008 and 2012. The objectives were to establish benchmarks...Comparative performance analysis of four irrigation schemes within Cagayan River Basin was assessed using comparative performance indicators between the years 2008 and 2012. The objectives were to establish benchmarks for both productivity and performance of irrigation schemes along the valley and to inquire whether small schemes function better than large schemes. The performance evaluation study of the systems composed of three general performance indicators, based on three domains-（1） system operation performance; （2） agricultural productivity and economics; （3） financial performance. Each indicator was assessed based on the prescribed descriptors used by the International Water Management Institute （IWMI） and Food and Agriculture Organization （FAO）. Analysis showed an overall system performance efficiency of 59%, 55%, 47% and 36% for Magat River Integrated Irrigation System （MARI1S）, Lucban, Garab and Divisoria Communal Irrigation Systems （CIS）, respectively. In terms of annual productivity performance, Lucban CIS dominates the three other systems with 0.35 kg/m3, which was classified as moderately performing system, while the rest were classified with low productivity index. Financial sustainability of the systems were extremely poor with cost recovery ratio of 0, 0.33, 0.41 and 0.49 for Divisoria, Garab, Lucban and MARIIS, respectively, which were exceptionally below the standard value of at least one. Also, analysis of the indicators revealed that on average, large schemes performed similarly to small-scale schemes, but small schemes were more variable, particularly in input-use efficiency. The benchmarking study will provide strategic information to policy makers of agricultural and irrigation agencies on the existing weaknesses of irrigation systems in the country and determine in a more quantifiable terms levels of potential improvement and intervention targets.展开更多
文摘Based on the coal demand under the 1.5 ℃ scenario, the amount of coal production in China was estimated in this study. According to the mutual relationship between the factors influencing coal production, an econometric model was constructed based on simultaneous equations, and the synergistic effect of each factor on the coal industry was estimated under the 1.5 ℃ scenario. Then, predictions were respectively made in the five aspects： coal production, coal science and technology progress, employment number, safe production level, and occupational health level, in different scenarios from 2016 to 2050. The results showed that before 2040, the comprehensive negative effect of the 1.5 ℃ situation is more than or equals to the positive effect. The 1.5 ℃ scenario has the biggest negative impact on employment, whose solution should be the focus. By 2050, the positive effects of the 1.5℃ scenario exceed the negative effect because of the enhancement in technical level and in the attention given to the whole production. Safety is improved, and health defects decline and the most obvious positive effect is on the ecological environment. The decrease of coal production will reduce the ecological environmental damage and significantly improve the ecological environment. In general, the prediction of 1.5 ℃ scenario promotes the increase of scientific production capacity and promotes the orderly development of coal. It has strengthened the safety and health protection degree, made the coal industry more efficient and competitive, and avoided or reduced the impact of coal development on the ecological environment and achieved environmental friendliness. However, the 1.5 ℃ situation also increases the employment pressure of the society, which affects the economic development of the major coal producing areas, but the situation can be overcome through the transformation and upgrading of the region. Finally, the impacts of various factors under the 1.5 ℃ scenario were evaluated through a unified comparison of the synergistic effect monetization using the cost and payment willingness methods. Based on the research results, suggestions on the regulation of coal production were proposed relating to resettlement of workers, protection of the ecological environment, and improvement of workers＇ health.
基金National 973 Project No.2002CB412507+5 种基金 National Natural Science Foundation of China No.90202002 Knowledge Innovation Project of IGSNRR CAS No.CXIOG-E01-02-04 One Hundred Talents Program of CAS.
文摘Combined with recent historical climate data and two periods of land use datasets from remote sensing data, we test the net primary productivity (NPP) data sets in North Chinamodelled by the satellite data-driven Global Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM) for detecting thewidespread spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of climate and land use change onthe regional NPP. Our results show that over the past 20 years, the mean annual temperature in thestudy region has remarkably increased by more than 0.064 ℃, but over the same period, there hasbeen a 1.49 mm decrease in annual precipitation and decrease in NPP by an annual rate of 6.9 TgC.The NPP changes in the study region were greatly affected by the average temperature andprecipitation by ten-day periods as well as the seasonal temperature and precipitation in the studyregion. The correlation between seasonal NPP and seasonal precipitation and temperature is highlyconsistent with land cover spatially, and the correlation coefficient changes with the changes ofvegetation types. The analysis reveals that the related areas in land use change only take up 5.45%of the whole studied region, so the climate changes dominate the impacts on the NPP in the wholestudy region (90% of the total). However, land use plays an absolute dominative role in areas withland cover changes, accounting for 97% of the total. From 1981 to 2000, the NPP in the whole studyregion remarkably reduced due to obvious precipitation decrease and temperature rise. Between twoperiods of land use (about 10 years), the changes in climate are predicted to promote a decrease inNPP by 78 ( + -0.6) TgC, and integrated impacts of climate changes and land use to promote adecrease in NPP by 87(+-0.8) TgC.
文摘Considering the importance of the anticipated intelligence issue on the current scenario, this article aims at understanding the scientific production about the subject, contributing to future researchers with greater academic knowledge about the productivity in the area. Therefore, a bibliometric research was carried out on weak signals and correlated matters between 1980 and 2010 and was supported by the literature review about the subject. The suggested analysis contributes to greater academic knowledge on productivity in the field, providing a broad perspective for future researchers who catch sight of this subject as a potential for further studies.
文摘Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.
文摘Comparative performance analysis of four irrigation schemes within Cagayan River Basin was assessed using comparative performance indicators between the years 2008 and 2012. The objectives were to establish benchmarks for both productivity and performance of irrigation schemes along the valley and to inquire whether small schemes function better than large schemes. The performance evaluation study of the systems composed of three general performance indicators, based on three domains-（1） system operation performance; （2） agricultural productivity and economics; （3） financial performance. Each indicator was assessed based on the prescribed descriptors used by the International Water Management Institute （IWMI） and Food and Agriculture Organization （FAO）. Analysis showed an overall system performance efficiency of 59%, 55%, 47% and 36% for Magat River Integrated Irrigation System （MARI1S）, Lucban, Garab and Divisoria Communal Irrigation Systems （CIS）, respectively. In terms of annual productivity performance, Lucban CIS dominates the three other systems with 0.35 kg/m3, which was classified as moderately performing system, while the rest were classified with low productivity index. Financial sustainability of the systems were extremely poor with cost recovery ratio of 0, 0.33, 0.41 and 0.49 for Divisoria, Garab, Lucban and MARIIS, respectively, which were exceptionally below the standard value of at least one. Also, analysis of the indicators revealed that on average, large schemes performed similarly to small-scale schemes, but small schemes were more variable, particularly in input-use efficiency. The benchmarking study will provide strategic information to policy makers of agricultural and irrigation agencies on the existing weaknesses of irrigation systems in the country and determine in a more quantifiable terms levels of potential improvement and intervention targets.
