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广东水稻生产风险评估研究 被引量:9
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作者 白林 段东霞 万忠 《西南农业学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2014年第4期1762-1767,共6页
广东省作为全国第一人口大省和粮食调入区,有着庞大的水稻需求量,但广东省的水稻生产量却远远落后于水稻需求量,对处于"典型气候脆弱区"的广东省而言,生产风险评估对水稻生产、水稻保险、粮食安全等工作的开展具有重要意义。... 广东省作为全国第一人口大省和粮食调入区,有着庞大的水稻需求量,但广东省的水稻生产量却远远落后于水稻需求量,对处于"典型气候脆弱区"的广东省而言,生产风险评估对水稻生产、水稻保险、粮食安全等工作的开展具有重要意义。通过利用直线滑动平均和非参数信息扩散模型对广东省各市早晚稻生产风险进行评估,评估结果表明:1晚稻风险大于早稻风险;2珠三角非沿海地区、粤东粤北粤西内陆地区和沿海地区水稻生产风险依次升高;3广东省水稻单产减产10%以上的概率较小。 展开更多
关键词 广东 水稻生产风险 风险评估 生产损失率
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气候变化背景下甘肃农牧交错带玉米气候生产潜力和资源利用效率变化特征 被引量:2
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作者 王钧 李广 +2 位作者 闫丽娟 刘强 聂志刚 《应用生态学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第1期160-168,共9页
为评估辐射、积温、降水和气候资源变化对甘肃农牧交错带玉米气候资源利用效率的影响,基于研究区45个气象站点1971—2020年玉米生育期内气象资料,结合玉米生育期数据,利用作物生产潜力逐级订正模型和指数化处理方法对研究区玉米气候生... 为评估辐射、积温、降水和气候资源变化对甘肃农牧交错带玉米气候资源利用效率的影响,基于研究区45个气象站点1971—2020年玉米生育期内气象资料,结合玉米生育期数据,利用作物生产潜力逐级订正模型和指数化处理方法对研究区玉米气候生产潜力损失率以及光能、热量、降水和气候资源综合利用效率的变化特征进行分析。结果表明:研究期间,甘肃农牧交错带玉米生育期内太阳总辐射量以-22.03 MJ·m^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1)的速率呈波动下降趋势,≥11℃积温以60.89℃·(10 a)^(-1)的速率呈显著上升趋势,降水量以2.05 mm·(10 a)^(-1)的速率呈缓慢上升趋势。甘南地区和陇中北部地区分别因温度和降水限制导致玉米气候生产潜力损失率较高,陇东大部分地区玉米气候生产潜力损失率较低;除中部地区和陇东部分地区外,研究区其他地区因温度和降水限制导致的气候生产潜力损失率分别以-2.0%·(10 a)^(-1)和-0.6%·(10 a)^(-1)的速率呈下降趋势。陇中北部、南部以及甘南部分地区为光能和热量资源利用效率的低值区,甘南地区为降水资源利用效率的低值区,兰州市和白银市气候资源综合利用效率较低,分别为0.41和0.47;陇东地区最适宜玉米种植,该地区4种气候资源利用效率均最高,然后依次为甘南和陇中地区;研究区光能、热量、降水以及气候资源综合利用效率的平均倾向率均呈上升趋势,分别为0.1%·(10 a)^(-1)、0.07 kg·hm^(-2)·℃^(-1)·d^(-1)·(10 a)^(-1)、1.17 kg·hm^(-2)·mm^(-1)·(10 a)^(-1)和0.05·(10 a)^(-1),表现出玉米增产的良好潜力。 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 气候生产潜力损失率 气候资源利用效率 甘肃农牧交错带
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Economic burden of irritable bowel syndrome in China 被引量:36
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作者 Fang Zhang Wei Xiang +1 位作者 Chun-yan Li Shu-Chuen Li 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2016年第47期10450-10460,共11页
AIM To estimate annual direct and indirect costs for patients diagnosed with irritable bowel syndrome(IBS) and subtypes.METHODS Patients completed a standardized questionnaire concerning usage of healthcare resources,... AIM To estimate annual direct and indirect costs for patients diagnosed with irritable bowel syndrome(IBS) and subtypes.METHODS Patients completed a standardized questionnaire concerning usage of healthcare resources, travel costs, meals, and productivity loss of patients when seeking treatment for IBS. Total annual costs per patient were calculated as the sum of direct(including medical and nonmedical) and indirect costs. Total annual costs per patient among various IBS subtypes were compared. Analysis of variance and bootstrapped independent sample t-tests were performed to determine differences between groups after controlling for IBS subtypes.RESULTS A total of 105 IBS patients(64.80% female), mean age of 57.12 years ± 10.31 years), mean disease duration of 4.31 years ± 5.40 years, were included. Total annual costs per patient were estimated as CNy18262.84(USD2933.08). Inpatient and outpatient healthcare use were major cost drivers, accounting for 46.41%and 23.36% of total annual costs, respectively. Productivity loss accounted for 25.32% of total annual costs. The proportions of direct and indirect costs were similarto published studies in other countries. Nationally, the total costs of managing IBS would amount to CNy123.83 billion(USD1.99 billion). Among the IBS subtypes, total annual costs per patient of IBS-M was highest at CNy18891.18(USD3034). Furthermore, there was significant difference in productivity loss among IBS subtypes(P = 0.031).CONCLUSION IBS imposes a huge economic burden on patients and healthcare systems, which could account for 3.3% of the total healthcare budget for the entire Chinese nation. More than two-thirds of total annual costs of IBS consist of inpatient and outpatient healthcare use. Among the subtypes, IBS-M patients appear to have the greatest economic burden but require further confirmation. 展开更多
关键词 Irritable bowel syndrome Burden of illness Direct and indirect medical and nonmedical costs Irritable bowel syndrome subtype Productivity loss
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The SLA (Second Law Analysis) in Convective Heat Transfer Processes
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作者 Heinz Herwig 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2016年第5期283-286,共4页
In all convective heat transfer situations, losses occur in the flow field (by dissipation) as well as in the temperature field (by conduction). Typically these losses are more or less quantified by the friction f... In all convective heat transfer situations, losses occur in the flow field (by dissipation) as well as in the temperature field (by conduction). Typically these losses are more or less quantified by the friction factorfwith respect to losses in the flow field, and the Nusselt number Nu for the heat transfer quality. Assessing the process of convective heat transfer as a whole, then becomes problematic because two different non-dimensional quantities, f and Nu, have to be combined somehow. From a thermodynamics point of view, there is a reasonable alternative: Since all losses become manifest in corresponding entropy generation rates, these rates are determined in the velocity as well as in the temperature field. Based on the integration of the entropy generation fields, an energy devaluation number is introduced. It basically determines how much oftbe so-called entropic potential of the energy involved in a convective heat transfer process is used within it. This approach is called SLA (second law analysis). 展开更多
关键词 Second law analysis energy devaluation number entropic potential.
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Prospect of the Seawater Desalination Technology
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作者 Kong Lingbin 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2017年第8期511-516,共6页
This article classifies the seawater desalination technology into four types of hot method, membrane method, electric field method and solvent method. Electric field method and solvent method still remain experimental... This article classifies the seawater desalination technology into four types of hot method, membrane method, electric field method and solvent method. Electric field method and solvent method still remain experimental stage, while hot method and membrane method have been realized in commercialization but are difficult to be promoted. The problem lies in high water-producing cost. It is difficult for membrane method seawater desalination technology to reduce the water-producing cost. The heat utilization efficiency is not high for the current hot method seawater desalination technology and there is large amount of heat lost with the emission of concentrated seawater. The new hot method seawater desalination technology and new solar-powered seawater desalination technology can divide the seawater into fresh water and solid salt without any emission of concentrated seawater so that the heat utilization efficiency can reach theoretical limit to multiply reduce the water-producing cost. They will become the mainstream technology for seawater desalination and can totally eliminate the global water crisis. 展开更多
关键词 Seawater desalination membrane method hot method solar energy.
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The influence of viscous heating on the entransy in two-fluid heat exchangers 被引量:11
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作者 GUO JiangFeng XU MingTian CHENG Lin 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第5期1267-1274,共8页
In the present work, water and olive oil are taken as working fluids to study the influence of viscous heating on the entransy dissipation caused by heat transfer in two-fluid heat exchangers. The results show that th... In the present work, water and olive oil are taken as working fluids to study the influence of viscous heating on the entransy dissipation caused by heat transfer in two-fluid heat exchangers. The results show that the influence of viscous heating on the entransy loss associated with heat transfer can not be neglected for the liquids having large dynamic viscosity. The viscous heating effect maintains the heat transfer ability of the working fluids, relatively reduces the entransy loss in heat exchangers; the viscous heating effect relatively augments the entropy generation due to heat transfer and the available energy destruction in heat exchangers. For the working fluid having large dynamic viscosity, the increasing rates of the entransy and entropy generation contributed by the viscous heating are even larger than those contributed by heat transfer, when the mass flow rate of working fluid reaches a certain value under the fixed heat transfer area condition. Thus, the entransy loss rate decreases and the growth rate of entropy generation increases as the mass flow rate of the working fluid increases. Under the same other conditions, the heat transfer entransy loss rate and entropy generation rate per unit heat transfer rate obtained when the fluid having a smaller heat capacity rate is cold fluid are less than those obtained when the fluid having a smaller heat capacity rate is hot fluid. 展开更多
关键词 entransy entransy dissipation viscous heating heat exchanger entropy generation
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