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基于生态模型的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分析 被引量:1
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作者 杨安吉 颜忠诚 《首都师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2021年第2期42-49,共8页
为了研究和解释新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的变化趋势,本研究利用生态增长模型对实际数据进行拟合分析.收集COVID-19疫情的相关数据,构建确诊患者例数、治愈患者例数和死亡患者例数3项数值的logistic模型,并预测世界6个区域内的疫... 为了研究和解释新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的变化趋势,本研究利用生态增长模型对实际数据进行拟合分析.收集COVID-19疫情的相关数据,构建确诊患者例数、治愈患者例数和死亡患者例数3项数值的logistic模型,并预测世界6个区域内的疫情发展趋势.截至2020年4月18日,logistic增长曲线的拟合数值与实际观测数据差异较小,且曲线的决定系数(R2)均>0.9970.全国COVID-19疫情的累计确诊患者例数、累计治愈患者例数和累计死亡患者例数变化趋势基本符合logistic增长曲线;全球COVID-19疫情分析显示,世界各地区的感染、暴发有时间差异,通过对现有数据进行曲线拟合,预测不同区域在具有不同拐点时的最终确诊患者例数.本研究证实logistic曲线可以模拟COVID-19疫情的变化趋势,也可以对疫情做出粗略预测,为未来的疫情防治工作提供一些帮助. 展开更多
关键词 新型冠状病毒肺炎 生态增长模型 变化趋势 回归分析 logistic曲线
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Ecological Footprint and Endogenous Economic Growth in the Poyang Lake Area in China Based on Empirical Analysis of Panel Data Model 被引量:2
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作者 何宜庆 车婷 王芸 《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 CSCD 2012年第4期367-372,共6页
In this paper, ecological footprint methods were used to calculate the ecological footprint of six cities (Nanchang, Jingdezhen, Jiujiang, Xinyu, Yingtan and Fuzhou) in the Poyang Lake Area, Jiangxi, China from 1991... In this paper, ecological footprint methods were used to calculate the ecological footprint of six cities (Nanchang, Jingdezhen, Jiujiang, Xinyu, Yingtan and Fuzhou) in the Poyang Lake Area, Jiangxi, China from 1991 to 2010. Ecological footprint was the input factor for ecological resources and the contribution of this and other factors such as labor and capital to economic growth were analyzed. The results showed that, from 1991 to 2010, ecological footprints in the six cities increased year by year. The amount of land for fossil energy, under cultivation and grassland influenced total ecological footprint in each city. The contribution of ecological resources, labor factors and capital factors to economic growth showed regional differences. Nanchang, Jiujiang, Xinyu, and Yingtan are capital-orientated and capital factor had a great influence on the economic growth rates, whereas, Jingdezhen and Fuzhou were labor-orientated. The contribution of ecological resources to economic growth in the six cities was the lowest of all three factors, meaning that efficiency of ecological resource utilization is low. Total productivity plays a key role in economic development; however, the overall level of total factor productivity for the six cities was low and indicates that the technological content of Poyang Lake Area’s economic growth is low and the utilization of input factors extensive. In summary, we suggest changing the mode of economic growth and developing tertiary industry in the region. 展开更多
关键词 Poyang Lake Area ecological footprint endogenous economic growth panel data model
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