Interannual Variation in Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Fluxes in China from 1981 to 1998

A dynamic biogeochemical model was used to estimate the responses of China's terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 from 1981 to 1998. Results show that China's total NPP varied between 2.89 and 3.37 Gt C/a and had an increasing trend by 0.32% per year, HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C/a and grew by 0.40% per year, Annual NEP varied between -0.32 and 0.25 Gt C but had no statistically significant interannual trend. The positive mean NEP indicates that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon with a total carbon sequestration of 1.22 Gt C during the analysis period. The terrestrial NEP in China related to climate and atmospheric CO2 increases accounted for about 10% of the world's total and was similar to the level of the United States in the same period. The mean annual NEP for the analysis period was near to zero for most of the regions in China, but significantly positive NEP occurred in Northeast China Plain, the southeastern Xizang (Tibet) and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, and negative NEP occurred in the Da Hinggan Mountains, Xiao Hinggan Mountains, Loess Plateau and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. China's climate at the time was warm and dry relative to other periods, so the estimated NEP is probably lower than the average level. China's terrestrial NEP may increase if climate becomes wetter but is likely to continue to decrease if the present warming and drying trend sustains.

Responses of Vegetation and Primary Production in North-South Transect of Eastern China to Global Change Under Land Use Constraint

A regional model of vegetation dynamics was revised to include land use as a constraint to vegetation dynamics and primary production processes. The model was applied to a forest transect in eastern China (NSTEC, North-South transect of eastern China) to investigate the responses of the transect to possible future climatic change. The simulation result indicated that land use has profound effects on vegetation transition and primary production. In particular, land use reduced competition among vegetation classes and tended to result in less evergreen broadleaf forests but more shrubs and grasses in the transect area. The simulation runs with land use constraint also gave much more realistic estimation about net primary productivity as well as responses of the productivity to future climatic change along the transect. The simulations for future climate scenarios projected by general circulation models (GCM) with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted that deciduous broadleaf forests would increase, but conifer forests, shrubs and grasses would decrease. The overall effects of doubling CO2 and climatic changes on NSTEC were to produce an increased net primary productivity (NPP) at equilibrium for all seven GCM scenarios. The predicted range of NPP variation in the north is much larger than that in the south.

Carbon Turnover in a Crop Rotation Under Free Air CO_2 Enrichment (FACE)

Mostly based on assumptions derived from controlled-environment studies, predicted future atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] are expected to have considerable impacts on carbon （C） turnover in agro-ecosystems. In order to allow the in situ examination of C-transformations in the plant-soil system of arable crop rotations under future [002], a free air carbon dioxide enrichment （FACE） experiment （550 μmol mol^-1 CO2） was started at Braunschweig, Germany in 1999. The crop rotation under investigation comprised winter barley, a cover crop （ryegrass）, sugar beets and winter wheat. Assessments of CO2 effects included the determination of above- and belowground biomass production, measurements of canopy CO2- and H2O- fluxes, soil microbial biomass and in situ soil respiration. The results obtained during the 1st crop rotation cycle （3 years） showed that for the selected crops elevated [CO2] entailed significant positive effects （P 〈 0.05） on aboveground （6%-14% stimulation） and belowground biomass production （up to 90% stimulation）, while canopy evapotranspiration was reduced. This resulted in increased soil water content. Also, depending on crop type and season, high CO2 stimulated in situ soil respiration （up to 30%）, while soil microbial biomass did not show significant respouses to elevated [CO2] during the first rotation cycle.

Driving force and changing trends of vegetation phenology in the Loess Plateau of China from 2000 to 2010

Changes in vegetation phenology are key indicators of the response of ecosystems to climate change.Therefore,knowledge of growing seasons is essential to predict ecosystem changes,especially for regions with a fragile ecosystem such as the Loess Plateau.In this study,based on the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data,we estimated and analyzed the vegetation phenology in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2010 for the beginning,length,and end of the growing season,measuring changes in trends and their relationship to climatic factors.The results show that for 54.84% of the vegetation,the trend was an advancement of the beginning of the growing season(BGS),while for 67.64% the trend was a delay in the end of the growing season(EGS).The length of the growing season(LGS) was extended for 66.28% of the vegetation in the plateau.While the temperature is important for the vegetation to begin the growing season in this region,warmer climate may lead to drought and can become a limiting factor for vegetation growth.We found that increasedprecipitation benefits the advancement of the BGS in this area.Areas with a delayed EGS indicated that the appropriate temperature and rainfall in autumn or winter enhanced photosynthesis and extended the growth process.A positive correlation with precipitation was found for 76.53% of the areas with an extended LGS,indicating that precipitation is one of the key factors in changes in the vegetation phenology in this water-limited region.Precipitation plays an important role in determining the phenological activities of the vegetation in arid and semiarid areas,such as the Loess Plateau.The extended growing season will significantly influence both the vegetation productivity and the carbon fixation capacity in this region.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems in Northeast China

This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous forests has been increasing at an average rate of 3.9 d per decade. Regional warming favors the growth of temperate broad-leaved forests and has a detrimental effect on the growth of boreal coniferous forests. Over the past hundred years, the forest edge of the cool temperate zone in the southern Daxing＇anling region has retreated 140 km northward. From 1896 to 1986, the northern boundary of broad-leaved forests in Heilongjiang province has extended northwestward about 290 km. Future climatic changes （until 2060） may lead to the northern deciduous needle forests moving out of China＇s territory altogether. The occurrence cycles of pests and diseases have shortened; their distribution ranges have expanded. The life cycle of tent caterpillars （Malacosoma neustria testacea Motschulsky） has shortened from 14-15 years in the past to 8-10 years now. The pine caterpillar （Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu）, which has spread within western Liaoning province and the nearby areas, can now be found in the north and west. Lightning fires in the Daxing＇anling region have significantly increased since 1987, and August has become the month when lightning fires occur most frequently. Overall, the net primary productivity （NPP） of forest in Northeast China has increased. The NPP in 1981 was around 0.27 Pg C, and increased to approximately 0.40 Pg C in 2002. With the current climate, the broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem acts as a carbon sink, with a carbon sink capacity of 2.7 Mg C hm-2. Although the carbon sink capacity of the forest ecosystems in Northeast China has been weakened since 2003, the total carbon absorption will still increase. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China are likely to remain a significant carbon sink, and will play a positive role in the mitigation of climate change.

Simulating Net Carbon Budget of Forest Ecosystems and Its Response to Climate Change in Northeastern China Using Improved FORCCHN

As dominant biomes,forests play an important and indispensable role in adjusting the global carbon balance under climate change.Therefore,there are scientific and political implications in investigating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems and its response to climate change.Here we synthesized the most recent research progresses on the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems,and applied an individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model for China(FORCCHN) to simulate the dynamics of the carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.The FORCCHN model was further improved and applied through adding variables and modules of precipitation(rainfall and snowfall) interception by tree crown,understory plants and litter.The results showed that the optimized FORCCHN model had a good performance in simulating the carbon budget of forest ecosystems in the northeastern China.From 1981 to 2002,the forests played a positive role in absorbing carbon dioxide.However,the capability of forest carbon sequestration had been gradually declining during the the same period.As for the average spatial distri-bution of net carbon budget,a majority of the regions were carbon sinks.Several scattered areas in the Heilongjiang Province and the Liaoning Province were identified as carbon sources.The net carbon budget was apparently more sensitive to an increase of air temperature than change of precipitation.

More than Carbon Stocks:A Case Study of Ecosystem-based Benefits of REDD+ in Indonesia

During the 15th Conference of the Parties （COP 15）, Parties agreed that reducing emissions from deforesta- tion and forest degradation and enhancing ＇removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests＇ （REDD＋） in developing countries through positive incentives under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC） was capable of dealing with global emissions. As REDD＋ seeks to lower emissions by stopping deforestation and for- est degradation with an international payment tier according to baseline scenarios, opportunities for ecosystem benefits such as slowing habitat fragmentation, conservation of forest biodiversity, soil conservation may be also part of this effort. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate ecosystem-based benefits of REDD＋, and to identify the rela- tionships with carbon stock changes. To achieve this goal, high resolution satellite images are combined with Normal- ized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） to identify historical deforestation in study area of Central Kalimantan, In- donesia. The carbon emissions for the period of 2000-2005 and 2005-2009 are 2.73 ×10^5 t CO2 and 1.47× 10^6 t CO2 respectively, showing an increasing trend in recent years. Dring 2005-2009, number of patches （NP）, patch density （PD）, mean shape index distribution （SHAPE_MN） increased 30.8%, 30.7% and 7.6%. Meanwhile, largest patch index （LPI）, mean area （AREA MN）, area-weighted mean of shape index distribution （SHAPE_AM）, neighbor distance （ENN_MN） and interspersion and juxtaposition index （IJI） decreased by 55.3%, 29.7%, 15.8%, 53.4% and 21.5% re- spectively. The area regarding as positive correlation between carbon emissions and soil erosion was approximately 8.9 x l03 ha corresponding to 96.0% of the changing forest. These results support the view that there are strong syner- gies among carbon loss, forest fragmentation and soil erosion in tropical forests. Such mechanism of REDD＋ is likely to present opportunities for multiple benefits that fall outside the scope of carbon stocks.

Effect of Aspect on Climate Variation in Mountain Ranges of Shennongjia Massif, Central China

The aim of this study was to better understand the mechanisms of regional climate variation in mountain ranges with contrasting aspects as mediated by changes in global climate. It may help predict trends of vegetation variations in native ecosystems in natural reserves. As measures of climate response, temperature and precipitation data from the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges of Shennongjia Massif in the coldest and hottest months(January and July), different seasons(spring, summer, autumn, and winter) and each year were analyzed from a long-term dataset(1960 to 2003) to tested variations characteristics, temporal and spatial quantitative relationships of climates. The results showed that the average seasonal temperatures and precipitation in the north, east, and south aspects of the mountain ranges changed at different rates. The average seasonal temperatures change rate ranges in the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges were from –0.0210℃/yr to 0.0143℃/yr, –0.0166℃/yr to 0.0311℃/yr, and –0.0290 ℃/yr to 0.0084℃/yr, respectively, and seasonal precipitation variation magnitude were from –1.4940 mm/yr to 0.6217 mm/yr, –1.6833 mm/yr to 2.6182 mm/yr, and –0.8567 mm/yr to 1.4077 mm/yr, respectively. The climates variation trend among the three mountain ranges were different in magnitude and direction, showing a complicated change of the climates in mountain ranges and some inconsistency with general trends in global climate change. The climate variations were significantly different and positively correlated cross mountain ranges, revealing that aspects significantly affected on climate variations and these variations resulted from a larger air circulation system, which were sensitive to global climate change. We conclude that location and terrain of aspect are the main factors affecting differences in climate variation among the mountain ranges with contrasting aspects.

Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years.Climate change is most evident in the foothills;however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians,which reach approximately 350 meters, on average,what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.

Identifi cation of national priority areas for adaptation to climate change in China

The problem of global warming has been identif ied as the f irst in the list of the top ten environmental prob-lems in the world.As climate change will seriously affect the social and natural world that people live in,so it may lay serious repercussions on economic progress,social improvement,and sustainable development.International bodies everywhere and many of the countries' governments are responding urgently to this call.In recent years,climate change has affected different regions in China in different ways.In its national agenda,the Chinese government should address the problem of climate change and its negative impact on socio-economic development.In this endeavor the nation should introduce policies which will help its people and economy to adapt to these effects and changes.Priorityf ields of adaptation to climate change are the sensitive areas or departments which are more vulnerable to the negative influences of climate change.The negative impacts of climate change in some parts of China are considered to be very serious indeed as they affect the whole economy and community.As a result,priority should be given to these more affected regions for the limited state f inancing.This paper def ines adaptation and discusses the basic principles and programs in the identif ication of national priority areas where adaptation should be exercised.Based on the past studies,four priority areas in China are identif ied,namely,disaster prevention and mitigation,water resources,agriculture,and ecosystem.An analysis on the identifi cation procedures,and the reasons and tasks involved are given for each.

Primary Discussion of a Carbon Sink in the Oceans

As a consequence of global warming and rising sea levels, the oceans are becoming a matter of concern for more and more people because these changes will impact the growth of living organisms as well as people＇s living standards. In particular, it is extremely important that the oceans absorb massive amounts of carbon dioxide. This paper takes a pragmatic approach to analyzing the oceans with respect to the causes of discontinuities in oceanic variables of carbon dioxide sinks. We report on an application of chemical, physical and biological methods to analyze the changes of carbon dioxide in oceans. Based on the relationships among the oceans, land, atmosphere and sediment with respect to carbon dioxide, the foundation of carbon dioxide in shell-building and ocean acidification, the changes in carbon dioxide in the oceans and their impact on climate change, and so on, a vital conclusion can be drawn from this study. Specifically, under the condition that the oceans are not disturbed by external forces, the oceans are a large carbon dioxide sink. The result can also be inferred by the formula： C=A-B and G=E＋F when the marine ecosystem can keep a natural balance and the amount of carbon dioxide emission is limited within the calrying capacity of the oceans.

Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the A1B scenario, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves, and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38℃ per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

The Connection of Vegetation with Tourism Development and Economic Growth： A Case Study for Aruba

Vegetation is an important ecosystem on earth. It influences the earth system in many ways. Any influences on this fragile variable should be investigated, especially in a changing climate. Humans can have a positive or a negative influence on plants. This paper investigates the possible impact of tourism development and economic growth on vegetation health using cointegration and causality for Aruba. The proposed framework contributes to a better understanding on the use of remote sensing of vegetation response to tourism development and economic growth. Thereby, provide opportunities for improving the overall strategy for achieving sustainable development on a small island state. The calculations showed that there were relationships between the tourism demand and economic growth on the vegetation health on Aruba for the western part of the island. On the other hand, for the central part of the island, no relationships were found.

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

Counteracting the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Southeast Florida

Over the past 100 years, worldwide surface temperatures have increased at an unprecedented rate, contributing to warming of the oceans, melting ice fields and glaciers, and other adverse climatic effects. Southeast Florida＇s vulnerability derives from its geographic location, low elevation, porous geology, unusual ground and surface water hydrology, subtropical weather patterns, and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. The region is especially susceptible to sea level rise. After several millennia of stable sea levels prior to the 20th century, sea levels have been rising at accelerating rates due to thermal expansion of the oceans and from land-based ice melt The Everglades ecosystem and the water supplies for southeast Florida are particularly vulnerable as neither can be protected without significant expenditures of public dollars, and even these efforts may not prove to be successful. New approaches may be required to improve the resilience and prolong the sustainability of the region＇s water resources and ecosystem. The efforts to adapt to sea level changes in both the urban area and ecosystem as outlined herein are date and incident based-climate changes may occur earlier or later so instead of spending limited public dollars early, expenditures can be adjusted given future information.

Estimation of the Volga-Caspian Water Ecosystems Stability under the Possible Climate Change and Anthropogenic Load

In this article, possible consequences of the Volga-Caspian water ecosystems change as a result of climatic changes are stated according to the data scenarios of Worldwide Meteorological Organization.

Adaptability of Permanent Grassland to Drought

Continuing climate changes are strongly associated with status of water, threatening the majority of ecosystems, including the grass ecosystem. The climate changes primarily affect the botanical composition of grassland that is subsequently determined by production of above-ground phytomass which is used like feed for the ruminants. In our field experiment we assessed the impact of climate changes on grass ecosystem during the long-term period （23 years）. We obtained a picture of the preceding development of botanical composition in this stand, due to the assumption that expected climate changes are going to disturb the botanical composition of grassland especially in the grass biome. From the obtained results follows the significant change in botanical composition in grass-herbaceous vegetation with the low share of legumes. It is not possible to confirm strict relation between precipitation during vegetation season and the share of individual botanical group. Analysis of long-term development of the botanical composition of monitored grassland influenced by different pratotechnical interventions demonstrated the significant flexibility this plant community in the times of changing climatic conditions.

病毒防疫的生态屏障

为应对新冠疫情,世界各国实施了不同程度的防疫措施,从个人隔离到封城封国、从社交距离到停工停产.在肯定防疫成效的同时,一个不争的事实是经济遭受史无前例的打击.纵观人类历史,传染性疾病影响历史进程的例子屡见不鲜.21世纪的今天,发达的人类对付原始的病毒看似妙计百般,实则代价惨重.疫苗固然是杀手锏,但它的到来总在惨烈的牺牲之后."隔离"被证明是防止疫情初发最有效的途径.这给我们一个深刻启示:能否把"隔离人类"改为"隔离病毒"?本文提出观点,藉此抛砖引玉.

Using the response-effect trait framework to disentangle the effects of environmental change on the ecosystem services

Functional traits play a vital role in mediating the responses of ecosystem services to environmental changes and in predicting the functioning of the ecosystem.However,the connection between functional traits and ecosystem services has become increasingly intricate due to climate change and human activities for degraded ecosystems.To investigate this relationship,we selected 27 sampling sites in the Yanhe River Basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau,each containing two types of vegetation ecosystems:natural vegetation and artificial vegetation ecosystems.At each sampling site,we measured ecosystem services and calculated the composition index of community traits.We established a response–effect trait framework that included environmental factors such as climate,elevation and human activities.Our results showed that leaf tissue density(LTD)was the overlapping response and effect trait when responding to climate change.LTD is positively correlated with mean annual temperature and negatively correlated with supporting services.Under the influence of human activities,leaf nitrogen content and leaf dry matter content were carriers of environmental change.Comparing the two vegetation ecosystems,the relationship between functional traits and ecosystem services showed divergent patterns,indicating that human activities increased the uncertainty of the relationship between functional traits and ecosystem services.Trait-based ecology holds promise for enhancing predictions of ecosystem services responses to environmental changes.However,the predictive ability is influenced by the complexity of environmental changes.In conclusion,our study highlights the importance of understanding the complex connection between functional traits and ecosystem services in response to climate changes and human activities.

A review of ecological impacts of global climate change on persistent organic pollutant and mercury pathways and exposures in arctic marine ecosystems

Bioaccumulative and biomagnifying contaminants, such as persistent organic pollutants （POPs） and mercury （Hg）, have for decades been recognized as a health concern in arctic marine biota. In recent years, global climate change （GCC） and related loss of arctic sea ice have been observed to be driving substantial change in arctic ecosystems. This review summarizes findings documenting empirical links between GCC-induced ecological changes and alterations in POP and Hg exposures and pathways in arctic marine ecosystems. Most of the studies have reported changes in POP or Hg concentrations in tissue in relation to GCC-induced changes in species trophic interactions. These studies have typically focused on the role of changes in abun- dance, habitat range or accessibility of prey species, particularly in relation to sea ice changes. Yet, the ecological change that re- suited in contaminant trend changes has often been unclear or assumed. Other studies have successfully used chemical tracers, such as stable nitrogen and carbon isotope ratios and fatty acid signatures to link such ecological changes to contaminant level variations or trends. Lower sea ice linked-diet changes/variation were associated with higher contaminant levels in some popula- tions of polar bears, ringed seals, and thick-billed murres, but the influence of changing trophic interactions on POP levels and trends varied widely in both magnitude and direction. We suggest that future research in this new area of GCC-linked ecotox- icology should focus on routine analysis of ancillary ecological metrics with POP and Hg studies, simultaneous consideration of the multiple mechanisms by which GCC and contaminant interactions can occur, and targeted research on changing exposures and toxicological effects in species known to be sensitive to both GCC and contaminants [Current Zoology 61 （4）： 617-628, 2015].