期刊文献+
共找到2篇文章
< 1 >
每页显示 20 50 100
生物多样性与生态系统服务情景模拟研究进展 被引量:11
1
作者 刘焱序 于丹丹 +2 位作者 傅伯杰 曹铭昌 陈吉星 《生态学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2020年第17期5863-5873,共11页
生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟是指对未来生物多样性和生态系统服务变化轨迹的定量估计,二者相互关联并为长期、稳定的保护和恢复生态系统提供了重要科学依据。梳理生物多样性以及生态系统服务预测情景的核心观点,讨论基于生物多样... 生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟是指对未来生物多样性和生态系统服务变化轨迹的定量估计,二者相互关联并为长期、稳定的保护和恢复生态系统提供了重要科学依据。梳理生物多样性以及生态系统服务预测情景的核心观点,讨论基于生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟的保护决策支持途径,以期服务于我国生物多样性与生态系统服务预测研究的发展和深化。研究凝练结果如下:物种分布模型需要进行更规范的评价以明晰其对具体对象的适用性,生态系统预测模型亟待在关系结构的基础上嵌入更多的生态系统过程和社会经济过程,生态系统服务评估模型有必要强化对生物多样性、生态系统服务、人类福祉级联特征的刻画;全球气候变化驱动了未来区域生物多样性的大幅改变;土地利用则是陆地生态系统服务预测中的核心驱动变量。生态区划与区域尺度情景模拟、景观尺度下的生态安全格局构建、基于社会生态网络的社区适应三点重要展望方向将对基于情景模拟的我国生态系统保护决策提供重要的理论和实践支持。 展开更多
关键词 生物多样性情景 生态系统服务情景 预测模型 气候变化 决策支持
下载PDF
Evaluation of Water Yield and Soil Erosion in the Three-River-Source Region under Different Land-Climate Scenarios 被引量:4
2
作者 GAO Min XIAO Yan HU Yunfeng 《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 CSCD 2020年第1期13-26,共14页
Exploring the water yield and soil conservation in the Three-River-Source region is of great significance for evaluating both the ecological stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yellow River basin,Yangtze River basi... Exploring the water yield and soil conservation in the Three-River-Source region is of great significance for evaluating both the ecological stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yellow River basin,Yangtze River basin and Lancang River basin and the sustainable development of human society.The data sources for this study were land use/cover data from four phases(2000,2005,2010 and 2015),daily precipitation and temperature datasets,and the 1:1000000 Chinese soil database.These data were combined with vector data,such as data on settlements,roads,and rivers,along with population,economic raster datasets and CCSM4 common climate model prediction results.The Three-River-Source region was taken as the study area,and four land use/cover development scenarios and two climate change scenarios were designed based on the FLUS model and the downscaling correction method.The InVEST model was used to quantitatively simulate the water yield and soil erosion under different scenarios in the study area in 2030.The results showed the following:(1)Under different land use/cover development scenarios,grassland remained the dominant land use/cover type in the Three-River-Source region,and the area ratio was always greater than 67%.(2)Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario,the annual water yield and soil erosion increased by more than 7%and 3.9%,respectively.Under the RCP8.5 climate scenario,the annual water yield and soil erosion decreased by more than 3.3%and 1.3%,respectively.(3)Climate change played a leading role in the changes in water yield and soil erosion.Climate change contributed as much as 89.97%–98.00%to the change in water yield and 60.49%–95.64%to the change in the soil erosion modulus.However,the contribution of land use/cover changes to the change in regional water yield was only 2.00%–10.03%,and the contribution of the soil erosion modulus change was 4.36%–39.91%.Therefore,the land use development strategy in the Three-River-Source region should comprehensively consider issues such as regional development,the input of returning farmland to forest and grassland,and the resulting ecological benefits. 展开更多
关键词 ecosystem services scenario simulation regional water yield soil erosion trade-off
原文传递
上一页 1 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部