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中国生活能源热力消费的ARIMA模型及预测
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作者 张宁 李星野 《金融经济(下半月)》 2013年第6期150-152,共3页
本文利用ARIMA模型,对1980-2009年中国生活能源热力消费量序列进行分析,建立了差分自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(1,2,0)。检验结果表明,ARIMA(1,2,0)模型对原始数据序列有着较好的似合效果,模型的预测效果良好,可用于短期内中国生活能源热... 本文利用ARIMA模型,对1980-2009年中国生活能源热力消费量序列进行分析,建立了差分自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(1,2,0)。检验结果表明,ARIMA(1,2,0)模型对原始数据序列有着较好的似合效果,模型的预测效果良好,可用于短期内中国生活能源热力消费量的预测。在此基础上,对我国2010-2014年的生活能源热力消费量进行了预测,最后给出了结论及建议。 展开更多
关键词 ARIMA模型 生活能源热力消费 预测
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One Year Minergie-A--Switzerlands Big Step towards Net ZEB
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作者 Monika Hall 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2013年第1期11-19,共9页
The first available label standardizing a zero-balanced type of building is the Swiss Standard Minergie-A. The standard prescribes an annual net zero primary energy balance for heating, domestic hot water and ventilat... The first available label standardizing a zero-balanced type of building is the Swiss Standard Minergie-A. The standard prescribes an annual net zero primary energy balance for heating, domestic hot water and ventilation. Electricity consumption for appliances and lighting is excluded. Additionally, Minergie-A is the first standard worldwide which includes a requirement in regard to embodied energy. Based on an analysis of 39 Minergie-A buildings, this paper shows that a wide range of different energy concepts and embodied energy strategies are possible in the scope of the label. The basis of all Minergie-A buildings is a well-insulated building envelope. However, the step from the Swiss Standard Minergie-A to a Net ZEB (net zero energy building) standard which includes electricity consumption for appliances and lighting is not a very big one. Increasing the size of the photovoltaic system is sufficient in most cases. Anyway, some of the Minergie-A buildings evaluated are also Net ZEBs. In this paper, it is also shown that the net zero balance during the operational phase of Net ZEBs clearly outweighs the increased embodied energy for additional materials in a life cycle energy analysis. 展开更多
关键词 Net zero energy building net zero energy balance embodied energy life cycle energy primary energy.
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