山东省工业用地量多元回归预测

为对山东省工业用地量进行定量预测,选择GDP,固定资产投资额,规模以上工业产值为自变量,以工业用地量为因变量,构建多元回归模型。利用MATLAB7. 0软件为计算工具,通过以历年样本为训练集,确定了模型的系数,对模型精度进行了检验,并利用模型进行了工业用地量的相关预测,预测结果可作为土地利用规划决策的参考。

基于“五量用地法”的建设用地管控评估方法研究——以金山区张堰镇为例

"五量用地法"已成为上海市土地管理的新思路。本文基于该思路,从"总量、增量、存量、流量、质量"五个方面构建了一套建设用地管控评估方法,并以金山区张堰镇为例进行实证研究。

交通影响分析中逆四阶段用地反馈模型探讨

在交通影响分析中 ,关键是确定开发项目对周围地区是否产生了交通影响 ,据此将拟开发地块用地量和研究范围内还可用于开发的用地量的比较作为判断是否产生影响的依据 ,并建立了相应的用地反馈模型 .

Vertical variation and storage of nitrogen in an aquic brown soil under different land uses

The vertical variation and storage of nitrogen in the depth of 0-150 cm of an aquic brown soil were studied under 14 years of four land use patterns, i.e., paddy field, maize field, fallow field and woodland in Shenyang Experimental Station of Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences in November of 2003. The results showed that different land uses had different profile distributions of soil total nitrogen (STN), alkali N, ammonium (NH4+-N) and nitrate (NO3--N). The sequence of STN storage was woodland >maize field > fallow field > paddy field, while that of NO3--N content was maize field > paddy field > woodland > fallow field, suggesting the different root biomass and biological N cycling under various land uses. The STN storage in the depth of 0-100 cm of woodland averaged to 11.41 thm-1, being 1.65 and 1.25 times as much as that in paddy and maize fields, respec-tively, while there was no significant difference between maize and fallow fields. The comparatively higher amount of NO3--N in maize and paddy fields may be due to nitrogen fertilization and anthropogenic disturbance. Soil alkali N was significantly related with STN, and the correlation could be expressed by a linear regression model under each land use (R20.929, p<0.001). Such a correlation was slightly closer in nature (woodland and fallow field) than in agro ecosystems (paddy and maize fields). Heavy N fertilization induced an excess of crop need, and led to a comparatively higher amount of soil NO3--N in cultivated fields than in fallow field and woodland. It is suggested that agroforestry practices have the potential to make a significant contribution to both crop production and environment protection.

快速城市化条件下的西安市土地利用变化研究

选择西安市作为研究对象,采用1996—2005年的统计数据,研究了快速城市化条件下的西安市土地利用变化情况。首先从变化幅度、变化速度和变化程度3个不同的角度分析西安市的土地利用变化,发现10 a内,西安市的耕地、牧草地、未利用土地面积均不断减少,而园地、林地、居民点及工矿用地、交通用地,水域面积分别呈增长态势。其中,耕地面积递减速度最快,牧草地次之,接着为未利用土地,而交通用地为增长最快的土地利用类型,居民点及工矿用地次之,依次为园地、林地和水域。因此西安市土地利用处于发展期,也处于调整期。通过引入"城市化下的边际城镇用地扩张量"指标,建立线性回归模型,研究了西安市城市化进程与土地利用变化之间的相关性。结果显示,西安市城市化下的边际城镇用地扩张量总体是一个增大的过程。这说明西安市城镇居民点、工矿用地及交通用地面积扩张的过程比城市化率增大的过程要快,土地资源的缺乏已严重阻碍并将继续制约西安市未来的城市化进程。最后提出了协调城市化与土地可持续利用相互关系的政策建议。

Seasonal Dynamics of Biomass under Different Land Use Patterns

[Objective] The aim was to study seasonal dynamics of biomass under different land use patterns. [Methed] Aboveground biomass and underground biomass of plants under 3 different surface cover conditions of Stipa krylovii, Leymus chinensis and farmland were determined in growing season （ from May to October） of 2008. [ Result ] The aboveground biomass of Stipa krylovii, Leymus chinensis and farmland in August all reached the highest value, which of Stipa krylovii, Leymus chinensis and farmland was 287.91,117.05 and 193.59 g/m2, respectively. The total biomass of plant roots of the 3 plots in July all reached the highest value, which of Stipa krylovii, Leymus chinensis and farmland was 1 683.9, 1 601.9 and 513.9 g/m2, respectively. Leymus chinensis had the biggest biomass ratio of upper plant roots （0 - 15 cm） to lower plant roots （15 -30 cm）, Stipa krylovii took second place, and farmland had the smallest one. ~ Conclusion The research provides theoretical basis for the ecological environment protection of ecological fragile area.

Population Density and Habitat Utilization of Ibex(Capra ibex)in Tomur National Nature Reserve,Xinjiang,China

Surveys was conducted to study the population density and habitat utilization of the ibex （Capra ibex） in Tomur National Nature Reserve during October- December 2005. The results are as follows： ① The mean group size of the ibex in Tomur Nature Reserve is 8.43 and the population density is 269.76/100 km^2; ② The ibex prefer areas with steep slope （between 30° -45°）, broken substrates and cliffs nearby （ 〈 100 m）. They avoid grasslands and fiat hillsides; ③The probable reason for this habitat selection is serf-protection.

Study on Influences of Different Land Use Types on Soil Qualities in Plateau Karst Depression

[Objective] The aim was to study influences of different land use ways on soil qualities in plateau karst depression.[Method] Different land use types were divided by topographic map of 1∶10 000 scales and soil properties of physics and chemistry were analyzed.[Result] The results showed that the variation trend of soil depth(A+B stratum)was slope plough(include returning farm to forest)land>natural forest land>planted forest land>shrub forest land,and relative indexes changing regularities of soil...

Assessing Sustainability of Land Management Using a Risk Identification Model

New Zealand is highly dependent on its soil resource for continued agricultural production. To avoiddepleting this resource, there is a need to identify soils and associated land management practices wherethere is a risk of soil degradation. Environmental integrity and ecosystem services also need to be maintained.Accordingly, to ensure sustainable production, the on- and off-site environmental impacts of land managementneed to be identified and managed. We developed a structural vulnerability index for New Zealand soils. Thisindex ranks soils according to their inherent susceptibility to physical degradation when used for agricultural(pasture, forestry and cropping) purposes. We also developed a rule-based model to assess soil compactionvulnerability by characterising the combined effects of resistance and resilience. Other soil attributes havebeen appraised using seven chemical, physical and biological indicators of soil quality. These indicators havebeen applied in a nation-wide project involving data collection from over 500 sites for a range of land uses.These soil quality data can be interpreted via the World Wide Web - through the interactive decision-support tool SINDI. The land-use impact model is a framework to assess agricultural land management andenvironmental sustainability, and may be applied to land units at any scale. Using land resource data andinformation the model explicitly identifies hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity. It utilisesqualitative expert and local knowledge and quantitative model-based evaluations to assess the potentialenvironmental impacts of land-management practices. The model is linked to a geographic informationsystem (GIS), allowing model outputs, such as the environmental impacts of site-specific best managementpractices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner. The model has been tested in New Zealand in anarea of pastoral land use. Advantages of this risk identification model include: utilising current knowledge ofthe causes and effects of land-management practices on soil degradation; linking land management practiceto both on- and off-site environmental consequences; identifying important gaps in local knowledge; andproviding spatially explicit information on the environmental impact of land-management practices.

Conversion of Natural Ecosystems to Cropland Increases the Soil Net Nitrogen Mineralization and Nitrification in Tibet

A comparative study was conducted to determine the NH4+ and NO3- concentrations in soil profiles and to examine the net nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification in adjacent forest, grassland, and cropland soils on the Tibetan Plateau. Cropland soil showed significantly higher inorganic N concentrations in soil profiles compared with forest and grassland soils. NO3- -N accounted for 70%–90% of inorganic N in cropland soil, while NH4+ -N was the main form of inorganic N in forest and grassland soils. The average net N mineralization rate at 0–20 cm depth was approximately twice in cropland soil (1.48 mg kg-1 d-1) as high as in forest (0.83 mg kg-1 d-1) or grassland soil (0.72 mg kg-1 d-1). Cropland showed strong net nitrification, with the net rate almost equal to the total net N mineralization. Urea addition stimulated soil respiration, particularly in forest soil. Most urea-N, however, remained as NH4+ in forest and grassland soils, while NO3- was the main form of inorganic N to increase in cropland soil. Higher rates of net nitrification in cropland soils suggest that land use change on the Tibetan Plateau may lead to high N losses through nitrate leaching.

Application of Hilbert-Huang Transform to the Analysis of the Landslides Triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake

A steep rock hill with two side slopes located at DK30＋256 of National Road 213 was used as a prototype for analysis. The full process from initial deformation to sliding of the slope during ground shaking was simulated by using a new Continuum-based Discrete Element Method. During the earthquake, when shaking amplitudes were lower, the stress concentration points firstly appeared at the top of the slip mass, and then some tension failure points appeared, followed by shear failure points. At the same time, both the instantaneous frequencies of accelerations in the bedrock and that in the slip mass basically stayed in two different ranges. The energy transmittance coefficients of the sliding surface also stayed in a high range. As the ground shaking lasted, the number of failure points gradually increased until landslide occurrence. The instantaneous frequencies of accelerations in the slip mass and the energy transmittance coefficients of sliding surface gradually decreased, and both finally converged to a lower range. And then, the reasons triggering landslides are analysis in the joint time-frequency domain using Hilbert-Huang Transform, as follows： the differenees of distribution and dissipation of the earthquake energy and the inconsistency of movements between the slip mass and the bedrock were the two major influence factors.

Effect of land use on microbial biomass－C, －N and －P in red soils

Eleven red soils varying in land use and fertility status were used to examine the effect of land use on microbial biomass C, N and P. Microbial biomass C in the red soils ranged from about 68 mg C/kg to 225 mg C/kg, which is generally lower than that reported from other types of soil, probably because of low organic matter and high acidity in the red soils. Land use had considerable effects on the amounts of soil C mic . The C mic was the lowest in eroded fallow land, followed by woodland, tea garden, citrus grove and fallow grassland, and the highest in vegetable and paddy fields. There was significant correlation between C mic and organic matter content, suggesting that the influence of land use on C mic is mainly related to the input and accumulation of organic matter. Microbial biomass N in the soils ranged from 12.1 Nmg/kg to 31.7 Nmg/kg and was also affected by land use. The change of N mic with land use was similar to that of C mic . The microbial C/N ratio ranged from 5.2 to 9.9 and averaged 7.6. The N mic was significantly correlated with soil total N and available N. Microbial biomass P in the soils ranged from 4.5 mg P/kg to 52.3 mg P/kg. The microbial C/P ratio was in the range of 4-23. The P mic was relatively less affected by land use due to differences in fertilization practices for various land use systems.

Integrated Indicators-based Gradation of Cultivated Land Quality in Mountainous Region of Southwestern China

The gradation of cultivated land is to assess the suitability of cultivated land for agricultural production in terms of natural and economic properties of land. It can be used to evaluate sustainability of land use and soil management practices. Formal and informal surveys, Delphi and comprehensive index method are adopted to identify appropriate integrated indicators, and measure the gradation of cultivated land quality. The determination of integrated indicators presents three basic features of cultivated land quality： stable plant productivity, social acceptability and maintenance of environmental quality. Pronounced concentration-dissipation law of total function score value occurs in paddy field units, with three ranges, i.e., 79-68.5, 68.5-59 and 59-51. Total function score value in dryland units mainly ranges from 40 to 70, but slight concentration-dissipation law of each unit is still observed, with four ranges, i.e., 79-68, 68-51, 51-37 and 37-15. Paddy field quality is divided into three gradations, and the scales are 18 220.9 ha, 5410.6 ha and 2890.9 ha. Dryland quality is classified into four gradations, and the scales are 1548.6 ha, 8153.8 ha, 3316.3 ha and 685.2 ha. The total function score value of every gradation unit is conformed to the results of farmers＇ assessment. Research results meet with the needs of accurate degree of the gradation of cultivated land quality. Integrated indicators-based gradation of cultivated land assessment accords with the characteristics of land resources and human preference in the mountains of southwestern China. This study will be useful to promote the monitoring of cultivated land quality, and to supply fine ground and knowledge for establishing appropriate cultivated land management practices in Southwestern China.

Phosphorus Sorption-desorption Characteristics of Ditch Sediments from Different Land Uses in a Small Headwater Catchment in the Central Sichuan Basin of China

Investigation of phosphorus (P) sorption-desorption characteristics of drainage ditch sediments is important for better understanding on sediment P transport behaviors in ditches. Surface ditch sediment samples were collected from headwater sub-catchment of forestland, sloping cropland, paddy field, and residential area in a representative catchment in the central Sichuan Basin. These sediment samples were used for determination of P sorption-desorption characteristics by a batch equilibrium technique. Results showed that the maximum P sorption capacities (Qm) in the sediments ranged from 159.7 to 263.7 mg/kg, while higher Qm were observed in the ditch sediments from the paddy fields. The Qm was significantly and positively correlated with oxalate-extractable Fe and Al oxides (r=0.97 and 0.98, p < 0.01), clay fraction (r = 0.78, p < 0.05) and organic matter (r = 0.95, p < 0.01). Sediment pH, clay and organic matter influenced the P sorption through amorphous Fe and Al oxides. CaCO3 content was negatively correlated with the Qm (r = -0.83, p < 0.05), implying that saturated CaCO3 (> 50 g/kg) would not increase P sorption capacity in the ditch sediments. The ditch sediments featured a linear desorption curve, suggesting that P release risk would be enhanced with the increase of the P adsorption. The P desorption rate was positively correlated with Olsen P (r = 0.94, p < 0.01), but negatively related to the fine particle-size fractions (r = -0.92, p < 0.01), the sum of the amorphous Fe and Al oxides (r = -0.67, p < 0.05) and the P sorption capacity (r = -0.59, p < 0.05). The ditch sediments from residential area had a higher P release risk than that from the other ditches of forestland, sloping cropland and paddy field. The P sorption index (PSI) derived from single-point measurement was significantly correlated with the P sorption capacity (r = 0.99, p < 0.01), and could be used for estimating Qm as 1.64 times PSI plus 24.0 (Qm = 1.64 PSI + 24.0) for similar sediments with highly calcareous soils and sediments. Ditch cleaning and sediment removal for the ditch in residential area were recommended in this area to reduce the P release risk.

Is changing footstrike pattern beneficial to runners?

Some researchers, running instructors, and coaches have suggested that the "optimal" footstrike pattern to improve performance and reduce running injuries is to land using a mid-or forefoot strike. Thus, it has been recommended that runners who use a rearfoot strike would benefit by changing their footstrike although there is little scientific evidence for suggesting such a change. The rearfoot strike is clearly more prevalent. The major reasons often given for changing to a mid-or forefoot strike are(1) it is more economical;(2) there is a reduction in the impact peak and loading rate of the vertical component of the ground reaction force; and(3) there is a reduction in the risk of a running-related injuries. In this paper,we critique these 3 suggestions and provide alternate explanations that may provide contradictory evidence for altering one's footstrike pattern.We have concluded, based on examining the research literature, that changing to a mid-or forefoot strike does not improve running economy, does not eliminate an impact at the foot-ground contact, and does not reduce the risk of running-related injuries.

China’s Potential of Grain Production Due to Changes in Agricultural Land Utilization in Recent Years

The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×109kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×109kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China’s current condition of food security is good.

Quantitative Simulation of Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land in Areas of Reclamation and Returning Cultivated Land to Forest or Pastures under RCPs Climate Scenarios

Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.

Changing Concentrations of Heavy Metals in Stream Water as a Result of Slurry Application to Soil

Several studies focused on nutrients have shown that land use and management practices have a strong influence on stream chemistry. Much less is known about the relationship between heavy metal concentrations in stream water and land use. We compared the variability of trace element concentrations in the stream of a catchment exposed to different types of management practices and land use. This is a small catchment with previous agricultural diffuse and accidental pollution mainly due to the spreading of slurry. The agricultural land was reforested in July 1998. The concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn in dissolved phase from surface water samples collected at the catchment outlet were determined over a period of approximately six years. The results suggest that dissolved metal concentrations, especially Cu and Mn, are controlled by the land use and management practices. The median concentrations of studied metals were the highest in the agricultural period. It was also during this period when they all presented the highest concentration peaks, coinciding with a time of heavy application of manure to the soil. Dissolved Fe and Mn showed high dependence of flow rate, whereas Cu and Zn concentrations seemed to be independent of flow.

A Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model for Analyzing Impacts of Land Cover Change on Flow Regimes

The Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source for Beijing Municipality, the capital of China with a population of more than 12 million. In recent decades, the inflow to the reservoir has shown a decreasing trend, which has seriously threatened water use in Beijing. In order to analyze the influents of land use and cover change (LUCC) upon inflow to Miyun Reservoir, terrain and land use information from remote sensing were utilized with a revised evapotranspiration estimation formula; a water loss model under conditions of human impacts was introduced; and a distributed monthly water balance model was established and applied to the Chaobai River Basin controlled by the Miyun Reservoir. The model simulation suggested that not only the impact of land cover change on evapotranspiration, but also the extra water loss caused by human activities, such as the water and soil conservation development projects should be considered. Although these development projects were of great benefit to human and ecological protection, they could reallocate water resources in time and space, and in a sense thereby influence the stream flow.

An Assessment of Climate Change and Available Water Resources in the Lowveld Region, Swaziland

Long-term climatic data （maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall and evaporation） for Big Bend in the Lowveld, a semi-arid region of Swaziland, were analysed for any changes or variations. Evaporation and rainfall data were analysed to assess water resources availability in the region. Analysis of the available data shows that there is no indication of decrease in rainfall with time, but the results show that there has been a steady increase in minimum temperatures over the last 25 years. The average effective water resources index, measured as the difference between mean annual rainfall and mean annual evaporation, for the region in the period from 1965 to 2001 was -1,500 mm. The large negative index implies low available water for the region, a situation that is likely to affect agricultural, hydropower and other water related development activities in the region. The negative effective water index implies deficits in the region＇s water resources which call for better management of the region＇s water resources. In the agriculture sector, this requires promoting technologies and practices that provide for water saving, improved water use performance and high water productivity. These include soil conservation tillage, wastewater reuse, runoff harvesting and soil fertility interventions through application of fertilizers, manures and mulches, and agronomic management. There is need for more analysis for the other regions in order to get a countrywide picture of the climate as well as water resources situations.