Research results of prediction of urban construction land scale were sum- marized from the aspects of influencing factors of construction land expansion and prediction models of construction land scale, and their char...Research results of prediction of urban construction land scale were sum- marized from the aspects of influencing factors of construction land expansion and prediction models of construction land scale, and their characteristics and deficiencies of these studies were analyzed to provide reference for deep research on pre- diction of urban construction land scale in China. The results show that there are few studies on basic theories about total scale of construction land presently, and there is no theoretical framework in studies on influencing factors. A single model has been used to conduct prediction on a small scale in most studies, but there have been few studies on iarge-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the exploration of basic theory and mechanism of urban construction land prediction, study iarge-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit, and strengthen the comprehensive application of econometric analysis, spatial analysis and information technology analysis.展开更多
The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the...The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow展开更多
The principles of the third theory of quantification were discussed. The concept and calculation method of reaction degree were put forward, which have extended the applying range and scientificalness of the primary r...The principles of the third theory of quantification were discussed. The concept and calculation method of reaction degree were put forward, which have extended the applying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun mine as an example, the geological factors affecting coal and gas outburst were researched. Eight sensitive factors for the outburst of coal and gas were screened out from 11 geological factors using the method of unit classification and the third theory of quantification. On the basis of this, the Zhongmacun coal mine was classified into several divisions. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geological factors of gas outburst forecast.展开更多
Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken ...Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.展开更多
Industrial sites are selected in many of the developing countries without taking into consideration some pertinent criteria that are directly affecting the sustainability of such industries in the locations after comm...Industrial sites are selected in many of the developing countries without taking into consideration some pertinent criteria that are directly affecting the sustainability of such industries in the locations after commissioning. Industries are located in some areas based on political influence rather than facility availability that support industry's productivity. In this study a criteria model was developed for assessing the present industrial site locations based on predetermined influencing factors called criteria. In the model provision was made for the sorting out of deficient influencing factors for the purpose of upgrading them to the minimum level required called benchmark through periodical allocation of appropriate funds. In validating the model, identified industrial sites located in selected States of Nigeria were surveyed. Data were collected on factors such as power supply, marketability and raw malerial availability which were considered influential to the sustainability of industry's site in the respective areas. Data were analysed for the criteria identified along the line of industrial categories which included large-, medium-, and small-scales. Benchmarks, as well as levels of criteria in the respective regions were determined using statistical weighted averages and the results were used as input to the model. The output results of the model showed that none of the industrial sites located in the selected six States of the South-Western Nigeria were productivity supportive. However, a good performance was achieved in a site with a budget of S13 million (US Dollars) for the upgrading of the deficient facilities in the next three years.展开更多
In the territory of Poland the manner of urban space management is defined by a planning document called LLUP (local land use plan). When analyzing the development process of Polish cities, an obvious conclusion eme...In the territory of Poland the manner of urban space management is defined by a planning document called LLUP (local land use plan). When analyzing the development process of Polish cities, an obvious conclusion emerges about the lack of complex studies and researches of the environment concerning the issue of acoustic climate. The procedures of development of local land use plan involve merely a general diagnosis of an environment excluding measured values of pollution, including noise levels. The main aim of this article is to introduce the issue of the influence that acoustic climate has on the urban space planning with the application of SNM (strategic noise mapping). The map enables holistic assessment of the degree to which urban areas are exposed to noise, determines its sources and forecasts variations of its levels. Preliminary research results confirmed the necessity of including noise level influence in the procedures related to urban space planning especially concerning its forecasted levels resulting from estimates of local land use plans. Applying SNM in verification of conceptual space arrangements in terms of protection against noise in the preparation of LLUP as well as their further application in the plan is a considerable advantage.展开更多
The characteristics and dynamics associated with the distribution, intensity, and triggering factors of local severe precipitation in Zhejiang Province induced by Super Typhoon Soudelor(2015) were investigated using m...The characteristics and dynamics associated with the distribution, intensity, and triggering factors of local severe precipitation in Zhejiang Province induced by Super Typhoon Soudelor(2015) were investigated using mesoscale surface observations, radar reflectivity, satellite nephograms, and the final(FNL) analyses of the Global Forecasting System(GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP). The rainfall processes during Soudelor's landfall and translation over East China could be separated into four stages based on rainfall characteristics such as distribution, intensity, and corresponding dynamics. The relatively less precipitation in the first stage resulted from interaction between the easterly wind to the north flank of this tropical cyclone(TC) and the coastal topography along the southeast of Zhejiang Province, China. With landfall of the TC in East China during the second stage, precipitation maxima occurred because of interaction between the TC's principal rainbands and the local topography from northeastern Fujian Province to southwestern Zhejiang Province. The distribution of precipitation presented significant asymmetric features in the third stage with maximal rainfall bands in the northeast quadrant of the TC when Soudelor's track turned from westward to northward as the TC decayed rapidly. Finally, during the northward to northeastward translation of the TC in the fourth stage, the interaction between a mid-latitude weather system and the northern part of the TC resulted in transfer of the maximum rainfall from the north of Zhejiang Province to the north of Jiangsu Province,which represented the end of rainfall in Zhejiang Province. Further quantitative calculations of the rainfall rate induced by the interaction between local topography and TC circulation(defined as "orographic effects") in the context of a one-dimensional simplified model showed that orographic effects were the primary factor determining the intensity of precipitation in this case,and accounted for over 50% of the total precipitation. The asymmetric distribution of the TC's rainbands was closely related to the asymmetric distribution of moisture resulted from changes of the TC's structure, and led to asymmetric distribution of local intense precipitation induced by Soudelor. Based on analysis of this TC, it could be concluded that local severe rainfall in the coastal regions of East China is closely related to changes of TC structure and intensity, as well as the outer rainbands. In addition, precipitation intensity and duration will increase correspondingly because of the complex interactions between the TC and local topography, and the particular TC track along large-scale steering flow. The results of this study may be useful for the understanding, prediction, and warning of disasters induced by local extreme rainfall caused by TCs, especially for facilitating forecasting and warning of flooding and mudslides associated with torrential rain caused by interactions between landfalling TCs and coastal topography.展开更多
Water table over an arid region can be elevated to a critical level to sustain terrestrial ecosystem along the natural channel by the stream water conveyance. Estimation of water table depth and soil moisture on river...Water table over an arid region can be elevated to a critical level to sustain terrestrial ecosystem along the natural channel by the stream water conveyance. Estimation of water table depth and soil moisture on river channel profile may be reduced to a two-dimensional moving boundary problem with soil water-groundwater interaction. The two-dimensional soil water flow with stream water transferred is divided into an unsaturated vertical soil water flow and a horizontal groundwater flow. Therefore, a prediction model scheme for water table depths under the interaction between soil water and groundwater with stream water transferred is presented, which includes a vertical soil water movement model, a horizontal groundwater movement model, and an interface model. The synthetic experiments are conducted to test the sensitivities of the river elevation, horizontal conductivity, and surface flux, and the results from the experiments show the robustness of the proposed scheme under different conditions. The groundwater horizontal conductivity of the proposed scheme is also calibrated by SCE-UA method and validated by data collected at the Yingsu section in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, which shows that the model can reasonably simulate the water table depths.展开更多
文摘Research results of prediction of urban construction land scale were sum- marized from the aspects of influencing factors of construction land expansion and prediction models of construction land scale, and their characteristics and deficiencies of these studies were analyzed to provide reference for deep research on pre- diction of urban construction land scale in China. The results show that there are few studies on basic theories about total scale of construction land presently, and there is no theoretical framework in studies on influencing factors. A single model has been used to conduct prediction on a small scale in most studies, but there have been few studies on iarge-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the exploration of basic theory and mechanism of urban construction land prediction, study iarge-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit, and strengthen the comprehensive application of econometric analysis, spatial analysis and information technology analysis.
基金Supported by Project of Special Foundation for Outstanding Scientists of Beijing, China(No.20051D1100205)
文摘The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow
文摘The principles of the third theory of quantification were discussed. The concept and calculation method of reaction degree were put forward, which have extended the applying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun mine as an example, the geological factors affecting coal and gas outburst were researched. Eight sensitive factors for the outburst of coal and gas were screened out from 11 geological factors using the method of unit classification and the third theory of quantification. On the basis of this, the Zhongmacun coal mine was classified into several divisions. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geological factors of gas outburst forecast.
基金funded jointly by National Science&Technology Pillar Program,China(Grant No.2012BAK19B01)the Task-oriented Contract for Seismic Regime Monitoring(2010020304)
文摘Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.
文摘Industrial sites are selected in many of the developing countries without taking into consideration some pertinent criteria that are directly affecting the sustainability of such industries in the locations after commissioning. Industries are located in some areas based on political influence rather than facility availability that support industry's productivity. In this study a criteria model was developed for assessing the present industrial site locations based on predetermined influencing factors called criteria. In the model provision was made for the sorting out of deficient influencing factors for the purpose of upgrading them to the minimum level required called benchmark through periodical allocation of appropriate funds. In validating the model, identified industrial sites located in selected States of Nigeria were surveyed. Data were collected on factors such as power supply, marketability and raw malerial availability which were considered influential to the sustainability of industry's site in the respective areas. Data were analysed for the criteria identified along the line of industrial categories which included large-, medium-, and small-scales. Benchmarks, as well as levels of criteria in the respective regions were determined using statistical weighted averages and the results were used as input to the model. The output results of the model showed that none of the industrial sites located in the selected six States of the South-Western Nigeria were productivity supportive. However, a good performance was achieved in a site with a budget of S13 million (US Dollars) for the upgrading of the deficient facilities in the next three years.
文摘In the territory of Poland the manner of urban space management is defined by a planning document called LLUP (local land use plan). When analyzing the development process of Polish cities, an obvious conclusion emerges about the lack of complex studies and researches of the environment concerning the issue of acoustic climate. The procedures of development of local land use plan involve merely a general diagnosis of an environment excluding measured values of pollution, including noise levels. The main aim of this article is to introduce the issue of the influence that acoustic climate has on the urban space planning with the application of SNM (strategic noise mapping). The map enables holistic assessment of the degree to which urban areas are exposed to noise, determines its sources and forecasts variations of its levels. Preliminary research results confirmed the necessity of including noise level influence in the procedures related to urban space planning especially concerning its forecasted levels resulting from estimates of local land use plans. Applying SNM in verification of conceptual space arrangements in terms of protection against noise in the preparation of LLUP as well as their further application in the plan is a considerable advantage.
基金supported by the Huadong Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Innovation Fund Collaborative Project (Grant No. QYHZ201404)the Development of Social Welfare Project of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. 2013C33037)+2 种基金the Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. LY18D050001)United States Office of Naval Research Project (Grant No. N000140910526)the Development of Social Welfare Key Project of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. 2017C03035)
文摘The characteristics and dynamics associated with the distribution, intensity, and triggering factors of local severe precipitation in Zhejiang Province induced by Super Typhoon Soudelor(2015) were investigated using mesoscale surface observations, radar reflectivity, satellite nephograms, and the final(FNL) analyses of the Global Forecasting System(GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP). The rainfall processes during Soudelor's landfall and translation over East China could be separated into four stages based on rainfall characteristics such as distribution, intensity, and corresponding dynamics. The relatively less precipitation in the first stage resulted from interaction between the easterly wind to the north flank of this tropical cyclone(TC) and the coastal topography along the southeast of Zhejiang Province, China. With landfall of the TC in East China during the second stage, precipitation maxima occurred because of interaction between the TC's principal rainbands and the local topography from northeastern Fujian Province to southwestern Zhejiang Province. The distribution of precipitation presented significant asymmetric features in the third stage with maximal rainfall bands in the northeast quadrant of the TC when Soudelor's track turned from westward to northward as the TC decayed rapidly. Finally, during the northward to northeastward translation of the TC in the fourth stage, the interaction between a mid-latitude weather system and the northern part of the TC resulted in transfer of the maximum rainfall from the north of Zhejiang Province to the north of Jiangsu Province,which represented the end of rainfall in Zhejiang Province. Further quantitative calculations of the rainfall rate induced by the interaction between local topography and TC circulation(defined as "orographic effects") in the context of a one-dimensional simplified model showed that orographic effects were the primary factor determining the intensity of precipitation in this case,and accounted for over 50% of the total precipitation. The asymmetric distribution of the TC's rainbands was closely related to the asymmetric distribution of moisture resulted from changes of the TC's structure, and led to asymmetric distribution of local intense precipitation induced by Soudelor. Based on analysis of this TC, it could be concluded that local severe rainfall in the coastal regions of East China is closely related to changes of TC structure and intensity, as well as the outer rainbands. In addition, precipitation intensity and duration will increase correspondingly because of the complex interactions between the TC and local topography, and the particular TC track along large-scale steering flow. The results of this study may be useful for the understanding, prediction, and warning of disasters induced by local extreme rainfall caused by TCs, especially for facilitating forecasting and warning of flooding and mudslides associated with torrential rain caused by interactions between landfalling TCs and coastal topography.
基金supported by National Basic Research Program (Grant Nos. 2010CB428403, 2010CB951001)Chinese COPES Project (Grant No. GYHY200706005)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2009AA12Z129)
文摘Water table over an arid region can be elevated to a critical level to sustain terrestrial ecosystem along the natural channel by the stream water conveyance. Estimation of water table depth and soil moisture on river channel profile may be reduced to a two-dimensional moving boundary problem with soil water-groundwater interaction. The two-dimensional soil water flow with stream water transferred is divided into an unsaturated vertical soil water flow and a horizontal groundwater flow. Therefore, a prediction model scheme for water table depths under the interaction between soil water and groundwater with stream water transferred is presented, which includes a vertical soil water movement model, a horizontal groundwater movement model, and an interface model. The synthetic experiments are conducted to test the sensitivities of the river elevation, horizontal conductivity, and surface flux, and the results from the experiments show the robustness of the proposed scheme under different conditions. The groundwater horizontal conductivity of the proposed scheme is also calibrated by SCE-UA method and validated by data collected at the Yingsu section in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, which shows that the model can reasonably simulate the water table depths.