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基于灰色线性回归-加权模糊马尔可夫链模型的电力能源需求预测 被引量:4
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作者 方欢欢 姬洪博 田书欣 《电子器件》 CAS 北大核心 2020年第5期997-1003,共7页
电力能源系统是一个具有多利益主体的复杂系统,其需求总量变化趋势的预测是新能源规划决策的重要基础,对新常态下我国经济的可持续发展具有重要的指导意义。结合电力能源需求总量历史样本数据特征,提出一种基于灰色线性回归-加权模糊马... 电力能源系统是一个具有多利益主体的复杂系统,其需求总量变化趋势的预测是新能源规划决策的重要基础,对新常态下我国经济的可持续发展具有重要的指导意义。结合电力能源需求总量历史样本数据特征,提出一种基于灰色线性回归-加权模糊马尔可夫链模型的电力能源需求预测新方法。首先,利用线性回归理论对电力能源需求灰色预测数据进行平滑处理,剖析电力能源需求时间序列中的线性变化特性,进而基于灰色线性回归方程对电力能源需求的未来变化趋势进行预测;引入加权模糊理论对马尔科夫链理论进行改进,构建灰色线性回归预测残差的状态转移加权模糊概率矩阵,实现对灰色预测结果残差的修正,解决电力能源需求预测中的局部波动变化问题。最后,以我国H电网区域的电力能源需求预测为实际算例,验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。 展开更多
关键词 电力能源需求 灰色线性回归 加权模糊 马尔可夫链 残差
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China's INDC and non-fossil energy development 被引量:7
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作者 HE Jian-Kun 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第3期210-215,共6页
Global climate change promotes the energy system reform. Achieving a high proportion of renewable energy becomes the major countries' energy strategy. As proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions ... Global climate change promotes the energy system reform. Achieving a high proportion of renewable energy becomes the major countries' energy strategy. As proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), China intends to raise the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to about 20% by 2030. That ambitious goal means the non-fossil energy supplies by 2030 will be 7-8 times that of 2005, and the annual increase rate is more than 8% within the 25 years. Besides, the capacity of wind power, solar power, hy- dropower and nuclear power reaches 400 GW, 350 GW, 450 GW, and 150 GW respectively, and China's non-fossil power capacity is even greater than the U.S.'s total power capacity. In addition, the scale of natural gas increases. Consequently, by 2030, the proportion of coal falls from the current 70% to below 50%, and the CO2 intensity of energy consumption decreases by 20% compared with the level of 2005, which play important roles in significantly reducing the CO2 intensity of GDE Since China has confirmed to achieve the CO2 emissions peak around 2030, at that time, the newly added energy demand will be satisfied by non-fossil energy, and the consumption of fossil fuel will stop growing. By 2030, non-fossil energy accounts for 20%, and the large scale and sound momentum of new and renewable energy industry will support the growth of total energy demand, which plays a key role in CO2 emissions peaking and beginning to decline, and lays the foundation for establishing a new energy system dominated by new and renewable energy in the second half of the 21 st century as well as finally achieving the CO2 zero-emission. 展开更多
关键词 Climate change Non-fossil energy CO2 emissions peak Energy revolution
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Solar Radiation and Temperature Measurement of Solar Dish Concentrator System
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作者 Y. Rafeeu M.Z.A.A. Kadir +1 位作者 S.M. Abdulla N.M. Adam 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2010年第2期15-19,共5页
Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies could be one of the major contributor to worlds future energy needs and which would be cheap and clean sources of energy. This would improve energy utilization, higher co... Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies could be one of the major contributor to worlds future energy needs and which would be cheap and clean sources of energy. This would improve energy utilization, higher conversion efficiency with reliable and affordable supply of electricity to the public. The proposed approach is using 18 inch diameter of solar dish concentrator to measure the solar radiation using the aluminium foil as a reflector. In this paper, solar radiation is collected to investigate the solar fraction on incoming solar energy in wet climate. 展开更多
关键词 Concentrating solar power solar energy olar fraction.
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Saudi Arabia's Growing Demand for Electricity: Some Strategic Recommendations
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作者 Yasir Abdulkarim Alturki Abdel-Aty Edris 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2015年第3期296-302,共7页
Demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia is growing at a significant annual rate of nearly 8%. It is expected that, by 2030, the demand will increase to about 120 GW per year, approximately three times the 2010 load. Sa... Demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia is growing at a significant annual rate of nearly 8%. It is expected that, by 2030, the demand will increase to about 120 GW per year, approximately three times the 2010 load. Satisfying this demand will require a significant investment in the power grid at an estimated cost, over the next 10 years, ofSAR (Saudi Arabia Riyal) 500 billion. Existing power plants rely on oil and natural gas, it is anticipated that meeting the demand in 2030 will consume 3 million barrels ofoil each day, which significantly impacting the economy by reducing the country's income from oil exports, which is a hot button for Saudi decision makers. This paper reviews the responses of various countries in meeting their loads, and therefore, draws recommendations for some resources that should, and should not, be considered best-candidate options for Saudi Arabia economically, technically and environmentally. The discussion primarily examines renewable and nuclear resources. 展开更多
关键词 Load growth nuclear power RENEWABLE Saudi Arabia.
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Electricity Sector Development Trends in an After-war Country: Afghanistan Aspiration for an Independent Energy Country
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作者 Mir Sayed Shah Danish Najib Rahman Sabory +4 位作者 Sayed Mir Shah Danish Tomonobu Senjyu Gul Ahmad Ludin Ahmad Samim Noorzad Atsushi Yona 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2017年第8期553-557,共5页
The rapid change in economic growth and human civilization has led to a dramatic increase in energy utilization and electricity demand. That faces nations with the challenge of maintaining cost-effective and clean pow... The rapid change in economic growth and human civilization has led to a dramatic increase in energy utilization and electricity demand. That faces nations with the challenge of maintaining cost-effective and clean power energy production. This paper aims to present Afghanistan electricity sector development and energy resources exploitation in a broad context. With the global growing interest in Afghanistan rehabilitation, this paper presents energy development trends in Afghanistan. Besides, the future outlook up to 2032 and the challenges that face electricity sector are highlighted. This study tries to emerge the historical development, current status, and future direction of Afghanistan electricity sector till 2032, in a precise collection. 展开更多
关键词 Afghanistan electricity electricity development trends electricity sector challenges electricity policy.
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