Nowadays IPP＇s power plant construction is encouraged by the current deregulatory climate. The financing technique employed to implement these projects is often the project financing formula. Under such condition an ...Nowadays IPP＇s power plant construction is encouraged by the current deregulatory climate. The financing technique employed to implement these projects is often the project financing formula. Under such condition an investor consortium, usually foreigner plan, build, operate the power plant and sell the generated electricity to the host utility. The sale price is determined from the expected IPP＇s production cost, enhanced from the expected welfare obtainable by selling electricity. This paper proposes a methodology for linking the uncertainty of the future production cost with the price of the electricity generated by an IPP. This is a stochastic approach to the sale price definition problem, while usually conducted through a deterministic procedure.展开更多
The principal means of conserving water and utilizing hydropower in China is to exploit the use of a series of reservoirs in a cascade. This method and its inherent engineering safety problems are receiving increasing...The principal means of conserving water and utilizing hydropower in China is to exploit the use of a series of reservoirs in a cascade. This method and its inherent engineering safety problems are receiving increasing attention nowadays. In the field of engineering safety analysis, much work has focused on single reservoir projects in the past few years, but there is little research available on the safety risk analysis of cascade reservoirs, either within China or internationally. Therefore, a framework for risk analysis on the cascade reservoir system based on the theory of system engineering is constructed in this article. A cascading failure model is established and the connection degree factor discussed. In addition, the importance degree of the subsystem, which can be calculated by combining the analytical hierarchy process and the entropy weight method, is explained. According to brittleness theory of a complex system, brittle risk entropy is proposed as a performance index for measuring the collapse uncertainty of the cascade reservoir system. In addition, the brittle risk of the cascade reservoir system is predicted, which provides a reference for safety analysis in water conservation and hydropower construction projects in China.展开更多
文摘Nowadays IPP＇s power plant construction is encouraged by the current deregulatory climate. The financing technique employed to implement these projects is often the project financing formula. Under such condition an investor consortium, usually foreigner plan, build, operate the power plant and sell the generated electricity to the host utility. The sale price is determined from the expected IPP＇s production cost, enhanced from the expected welfare obtainable by selling electricity. This paper proposes a methodology for linking the uncertainty of the future production cost with the price of the electricity generated by an IPP. This is a stochastic approach to the sale price definition problem, while usually conducted through a deterministic procedure.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Plan(Grant No.2013BAB06B01)the Graduate Student Scientific Research Innovation Projects of Regular Institutions of Jiangsu Province(Grant Nos.CXZZ11_0439&CXZZ13_0236)
文摘The principal means of conserving water and utilizing hydropower in China is to exploit the use of a series of reservoirs in a cascade. This method and its inherent engineering safety problems are receiving increasing attention nowadays. In the field of engineering safety analysis, much work has focused on single reservoir projects in the past few years, but there is little research available on the safety risk analysis of cascade reservoirs, either within China or internationally. Therefore, a framework for risk analysis on the cascade reservoir system based on the theory of system engineering is constructed in this article. A cascading failure model is established and the connection degree factor discussed. In addition, the importance degree of the subsystem, which can be calculated by combining the analytical hierarchy process and the entropy weight method, is explained. According to brittleness theory of a complex system, brittle risk entropy is proposed as a performance index for measuring the collapse uncertainty of the cascade reservoir system. In addition, the brittle risk of the cascade reservoir system is predicted, which provides a reference for safety analysis in water conservation and hydropower construction projects in China.
