Objective To construct a model of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) for forecasting the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China, and provide valuable reference ...Objective To construct a model of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) for forecasting the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China, and provide valuable reference information for JE control and prevention. Methods Theoretically epidemiologic study was employed in the research process. Monthly incidence data on JE for the period from Jan 2005 to Sep 2014 were obtained from a passive surveillance system at the Center for Diseases Prevention and Control in Xianyang, Shaanxi province. An optimal SARIMA model was developed for JE incidence from 2005 to 2013 with the Box and Jenkins approach. This SARIMA model could predict JE incidence for the year 2014 and 2015. Results SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 was considered to be the best model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, Mean Absolute Error values, the highest R2, and a lower Mean Absolute Percent Error. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 was stationary and accurate for predicting JE incidence in Xianyang. The predicted incidence, around 0.3/100 000 from June to August in 2014 with low errors, was higher compared with the actual incidence. Therefore, SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 appeared to be reliable and accurate and could be applied to incidence prediction. Conclusions The proposed prediction model could provide clues to early identification of the JE incidence that is increased abnormally (≥0.4/100 000). According to the predicted results in 2014, the JE incidence in Xianyang will decline slightly and reach its peak from June to August.The authors wish to thank the staff from the CDCs from 13 counties of Xianyang, Shaanxi province, China, for their contribution to Japanese encephalitis cases reporting.展开更多
Objective: To evaluate the influence of osteoporosis on the middle and late periods of fracture healing process through observing the histomorphological changes, bone mineral density and biomechanical properties in ov...Objective: To evaluate the influence of osteoporosis on the middle and late periods of fracture healing process through observing the histomorphological changes, bone mineral density and biomechanical properties in ovariectomized rats. Methods: Eighty-four female SD rats of 4 months old were randomly divided into osteoporosis group and sham operation group, 42 in each. Rats in osteoporosis group were performed ovariectomy operation while those in sham operation group were given sham operation. A midshaft tibia fracture model was established 10 weeks after ovariectomy. Tibias were harvested 2, 4, 6, 12, 18 weeks after fracture for bone mineral density, histomorphological and biomechanical evaluation. Results: Compared with the sham operation group, callus bone mineral density was 12.8%, 18.0%, 17.0% lower in osteoporosis group 6, 12, 18 weeks after fracture, respectively (P< 0.05); callus failure load was 24.3%, 31.5%, 26.6%, 28.8% lower in osteoporosis group, and callus failure stress was 23.9%, 33.6%, 19.1%, 24.9% lower in osteoporosis group 4, 6, 12, 18 weeks after fracture, respectively (P< 0.05). In osteoporosis group, endochondral bone formation was delayed, more osteoclast cells could be seen around the trabecula, and the new bone trabecula arranged loosely and irregularly. Conclusions: Osteoporosis influences the middle and late periods of fracture healing in the rat osteoporotic model. The impairment is considered to be the result of combined effects of prolonged endochondral calcification, high activated osteoclast cell and the deceleration of the increase in bone mineral density.展开更多
OBJECTIVE: To study the therapeutic effect Bufei granule, which is a traditional Chinese drug that can enhance the immune function of the lung, on patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).METHO...OBJECTIVE: To study the therapeutic effect Bufei granule, which is a traditional Chinese drug that can enhance the immune function of the lung, on patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).METHODS: This is a randomized, double blinded,placebo-controlled, and multicenter clinical study.Three medical centers in Tianjin, China, participated in the trial. A total of 140 patients with stable COPD were enrolled and randomized into two groups, with 70 patients in each. The treatment group was treated with Bufei granule, while the control group received Bufei placebo. The pharmacological treatment lasted for 12 weeks from the date of enrollment. Then, the indexes of patients were observed. Data were analyzed to study the effect of Bufei granule, with the frequency of acute exacerbation as the primary outcome. Traditional Chinese Medicine syndromes,Modified British Medical Research Council dyspnea scale score, St.George's respiratory questionnaire scores, pulmonary function, and serum inflammatory marker levels [including interleukin-6(IL-6), interleukin-8, tumor necrosis factor-α, and transformation growth factor-β1]were the secondary outcomes.RESULTS: During the 12-week treatment, treatment and control groups had no adverse reactions.The analysis of the indexes obtained from all patients showed that the therapeutic effect in the treatment group was significantly better than that in the control group because most of the similar probabilities of primary and secondary outcomes were less than 0.05,except for the level of IL-6.CONCLUSION: Bufei granule can treat patients with stable COPD by lowering the frequency of acute exacerbation, improving the quality of life,and alleviating the severity of inflammation.展开更多
基金Supported by the Youth Project of Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine(2015QN05)
文摘Objective To construct a model of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) for forecasting the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China, and provide valuable reference information for JE control and prevention. Methods Theoretically epidemiologic study was employed in the research process. Monthly incidence data on JE for the period from Jan 2005 to Sep 2014 were obtained from a passive surveillance system at the Center for Diseases Prevention and Control in Xianyang, Shaanxi province. An optimal SARIMA model was developed for JE incidence from 2005 to 2013 with the Box and Jenkins approach. This SARIMA model could predict JE incidence for the year 2014 and 2015. Results SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 was considered to be the best model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, Mean Absolute Error values, the highest R2, and a lower Mean Absolute Percent Error. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 was stationary and accurate for predicting JE incidence in Xianyang. The predicted incidence, around 0.3/100 000 from June to August in 2014 with low errors, was higher compared with the actual incidence. Therefore, SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)12 appeared to be reliable and accurate and could be applied to incidence prediction. Conclusions The proposed prediction model could provide clues to early identification of the JE incidence that is increased abnormally (≥0.4/100 000). According to the predicted results in 2014, the JE incidence in Xianyang will decline slightly and reach its peak from June to August.The authors wish to thank the staff from the CDCs from 13 counties of Xianyang, Shaanxi province, China, for their contribution to Japanese encephalitis cases reporting.
文摘Objective: To evaluate the influence of osteoporosis on the middle and late periods of fracture healing process through observing the histomorphological changes, bone mineral density and biomechanical properties in ovariectomized rats. Methods: Eighty-four female SD rats of 4 months old were randomly divided into osteoporosis group and sham operation group, 42 in each. Rats in osteoporosis group were performed ovariectomy operation while those in sham operation group were given sham operation. A midshaft tibia fracture model was established 10 weeks after ovariectomy. Tibias were harvested 2, 4, 6, 12, 18 weeks after fracture for bone mineral density, histomorphological and biomechanical evaluation. Results: Compared with the sham operation group, callus bone mineral density was 12.8%, 18.0%, 17.0% lower in osteoporosis group 6, 12, 18 weeks after fracture, respectively (P< 0.05); callus failure load was 24.3%, 31.5%, 26.6%, 28.8% lower in osteoporosis group, and callus failure stress was 23.9%, 33.6%, 19.1%, 24.9% lower in osteoporosis group 4, 6, 12, 18 weeks after fracture, respectively (P< 0.05). In osteoporosis group, endochondral bone formation was delayed, more osteoclast cells could be seen around the trabecula, and the new bone trabecula arranged loosely and irregularly. Conclusions: Osteoporosis influences the middle and late periods of fracture healing in the rat osteoporotic model. The impairment is considered to be the result of combined effects of prolonged endochondral calcification, high activated osteoclast cell and the deceleration of the increase in bone mineral density.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Fund of China(No.30672681)International Cooperation Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2011DFA32750)
文摘OBJECTIVE: To study the therapeutic effect Bufei granule, which is a traditional Chinese drug that can enhance the immune function of the lung, on patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).METHODS: This is a randomized, double blinded,placebo-controlled, and multicenter clinical study.Three medical centers in Tianjin, China, participated in the trial. A total of 140 patients with stable COPD were enrolled and randomized into two groups, with 70 patients in each. The treatment group was treated with Bufei granule, while the control group received Bufei placebo. The pharmacological treatment lasted for 12 weeks from the date of enrollment. Then, the indexes of patients were observed. Data were analyzed to study the effect of Bufei granule, with the frequency of acute exacerbation as the primary outcome. Traditional Chinese Medicine syndromes,Modified British Medical Research Council dyspnea scale score, St.George's respiratory questionnaire scores, pulmonary function, and serum inflammatory marker levels [including interleukin-6(IL-6), interleukin-8, tumor necrosis factor-α, and transformation growth factor-β1]were the secondary outcomes.RESULTS: During the 12-week treatment, treatment and control groups had no adverse reactions.The analysis of the indexes obtained from all patients showed that the therapeutic effect in the treatment group was significantly better than that in the control group because most of the similar probabilities of primary and secondary outcomes were less than 0.05,except for the level of IL-6.CONCLUSION: Bufei granule can treat patients with stable COPD by lowering the frequency of acute exacerbation, improving the quality of life,and alleviating the severity of inflammation.