通过电能质量监测系统(power quality monitoring system,PQMS)中蕴含的电网历史故障变化、趋势等重要信息,对未来电压暂降进行预测,可为用户和电网公司合理规划生产,避免经济损失提供有力帮助。该文提出一种基于隐马尔可夫模型的电压...通过电能质量监测系统(power quality monitoring system,PQMS)中蕴含的电网历史故障变化、趋势等重要信息,对未来电压暂降进行预测,可为用户和电网公司合理规划生产,避免经济损失提供有力帮助。该文提出一种基于隐马尔可夫模型的电压暂降发生时间(occurrence time of voltage sag,OTVS)预测方法。首先对电压暂降发生时间的变量可预测性、数据冗余性、事件混沌性进行分析,揭示电压暂降监测数据特性;然后针对这三种特性,提出基于模糊C-均值聚类算法(fuzzy C-means algorithm,FCMA)和赤池信息准则(Akaike information criterion,AIC)的电压暂降历史状态识别与划分方法,以区间型变量刻画监测数据中的历史变化信息;建立考虑暂降历史变化信息和电网扰动变化信息的隐马尔可夫模型,实现对未来电压暂降的预测。最后,利用中部某省10个监测点的历史数据进行验证,所提方法的预测准确率最高可达92.85%,所提方法的预测性能较其他典型预测方法约高5%~30%。展开更多
Outburst floods caused by breaches of landslide dams may cause serious damages and loss of lives in downstream areas; for this reason the study of the dynamic of the process is of particular interest for hazard and ri...Outburst floods caused by breaches of landslide dams may cause serious damages and loss of lives in downstream areas; for this reason the study of the dynamic of the process is of particular interest for hazard and risk assessment. In this paper we report a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment conducted in Nantou County, in the central of Taiwan.The seismic signal generated during the dam failure was monitored using a broadband seismometer and the signal was used to study the dam failure process.We used the short-time Fourier transform(STFT) to obtain the time–frequency characteristics of the signal and analyzed the correlation between the power spectrum density(PSD) of the signal and the water level. The results indicate that the seismic signal generated during the process consisted of three components: a low-frequency band(0–1.5 Hz), an intermediate-frequency band(1.5–10 Hz) and a highfrequency band(10–45 Hz). We obtained the characteristics of each frequency band and the variations of the signal in various stages of the landslide dam failure process. We determined the cause for the signal changes in each frequency band and its relationship with the dam failure process. The PSD sediment flux estimation model was used to interpret the causes of variations in the signal energy before the dam failure and the clockwise hysteresis during the failure. Our results show that the seismic signal reflects the physical characteristics of the landslide dam failure process. The method and equipment used in this study may be used to monitor landslide dams and providing early warnings for dam failures.展开更多
In order to study the evolution laws during the development process of the coal face overburden rock mining-induced fissure,we studied the process of evolution of overburden rock mining-induced fissures and dynamicall...In order to study the evolution laws during the development process of the coal face overburden rock mining-induced fissure,we studied the process of evolution of overburden rock mining-induced fissures and dynamically quantitatively described its fractal laws,based on the high-precision microseismic monitoring method and the nonlinear Fractal Geometry Theory.The results show that:the overburden rock mining-induced fissure fractal dimension experiences two periodic change processes with the coal face advance,namely a Small→ Big→ Small process,which tends to be stable;the functional relationship between the extraction step distance and the overburden rock mining-induced fissure fractal dimension is a cubic curve.The results suggest that the fractal dimension reflects the evolution characteristics of the overburden rock mining-induced fissure,which can be used as an evaluation index of the stability of the overburden rock strata,and it provides theoretical guidance for stability analysis of the overburden rock strata,goaf roof control and the support movements in the mining face.展开更多
This paperdescribes the development and applications of a fiber-optic electric current sensing technique with the stable properties and compact, simple, and flexible structure of the sensing device. The special charac...This paperdescribes the development and applications of a fiber-optic electric current sensing technique with the stable properties and compact, simple, and flexible structure of the sensing device. The special characteristics of the sensors were achieved by use of the special low birefringence fiber as the Faraday-effect sensing element and were also achieved with creation of sensing schemes which matched with the features of the fiber. Making use of the excellent features of the sensing technique, various current monitoring devices and systems were developed and applied practically for the control and maintenance in the electric power facility. In this paper, the design and performance of the sensing devices are introduced first. After that, examples of the application systems practically applied are also introduced, including fault section/point location systems for power transmission cable lines.展开更多
文摘通过电能质量监测系统(power quality monitoring system,PQMS)中蕴含的电网历史故障变化、趋势等重要信息,对未来电压暂降进行预测,可为用户和电网公司合理规划生产,避免经济损失提供有力帮助。该文提出一种基于隐马尔可夫模型的电压暂降发生时间(occurrence time of voltage sag,OTVS)预测方法。首先对电压暂降发生时间的变量可预测性、数据冗余性、事件混沌性进行分析,揭示电压暂降监测数据特性;然后针对这三种特性,提出基于模糊C-均值聚类算法(fuzzy C-means algorithm,FCMA)和赤池信息准则(Akaike information criterion,AIC)的电压暂降历史状态识别与划分方法,以区间型变量刻画监测数据中的历史变化信息;建立考虑暂降历史变化信息和电网扰动变化信息的隐马尔可夫模型,实现对未来电压暂降的预测。最后,利用中部某省10个监测点的历史数据进行验证,所提方法的预测准确率最高可达92.85%,所提方法的预测性能较其他典型预测方法约高5%~30%。
基金financially supported by the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Co-operation,Chinese Academy of Sciences(131551KYSB20130003)the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Technology of Barrier Lake Project of China Communications Construction Company Limited(2013318J01100)+2 种基金the Key Technologies R&D Program of Sichuan Province in China(2014SZ0163)the Special Program for International S&T Cooperation projects of China(Grant No.2012DFA20980)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51479179)
文摘Outburst floods caused by breaches of landslide dams may cause serious damages and loss of lives in downstream areas; for this reason the study of the dynamic of the process is of particular interest for hazard and risk assessment. In this paper we report a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment conducted in Nantou County, in the central of Taiwan.The seismic signal generated during the dam failure was monitored using a broadband seismometer and the signal was used to study the dam failure process.We used the short-time Fourier transform(STFT) to obtain the time–frequency characteristics of the signal and analyzed the correlation between the power spectrum density(PSD) of the signal and the water level. The results indicate that the seismic signal generated during the process consisted of three components: a low-frequency band(0–1.5 Hz), an intermediate-frequency band(1.5–10 Hz) and a highfrequency band(10–45 Hz). We obtained the characteristics of each frequency band and the variations of the signal in various stages of the landslide dam failure process. We determined the cause for the signal changes in each frequency band and its relationship with the dam failure process. The PSD sediment flux estimation model was used to interpret the causes of variations in the signal energy before the dam failure and the clockwise hysteresis during the failure. Our results show that the seismic signal reflects the physical characteristics of the landslide dam failure process. The method and equipment used in this study may be used to monitor landslide dams and providing early warnings for dam failures.
基金Financial support for this work,provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51304154)the Natural Science Foundation Anhui Province(No.1408085MKL92)
文摘In order to study the evolution laws during the development process of the coal face overburden rock mining-induced fissure,we studied the process of evolution of overburden rock mining-induced fissures and dynamically quantitatively described its fractal laws,based on the high-precision microseismic monitoring method and the nonlinear Fractal Geometry Theory.The results show that:the overburden rock mining-induced fissure fractal dimension experiences two periodic change processes with the coal face advance,namely a Small→ Big→ Small process,which tends to be stable;the functional relationship between the extraction step distance and the overburden rock mining-induced fissure fractal dimension is a cubic curve.The results suggest that the fractal dimension reflects the evolution characteristics of the overburden rock mining-induced fissure,which can be used as an evaluation index of the stability of the overburden rock strata,and it provides theoretical guidance for stability analysis of the overburden rock strata,goaf roof control and the support movements in the mining face.
文摘This paperdescribes the development and applications of a fiber-optic electric current sensing technique with the stable properties and compact, simple, and flexible structure of the sensing device. The special characteristics of the sensors were achieved by use of the special low birefringence fiber as the Faraday-effect sensing element and were also achieved with creation of sensing schemes which matched with the features of the fiber. Making use of the excellent features of the sensing technique, various current monitoring devices and systems were developed and applied practically for the control and maintenance in the electric power facility. In this paper, the design and performance of the sensing devices are introduced first. After that, examples of the application systems practically applied are also introduced, including fault section/point location systems for power transmission cable lines.
