Improved AVOA based on LSSVM for wind power prediction

Improving the prediction accuracy of wind power is an effective means to reduce the impact of wind power on power grid.Therefore,we proposed an improved African vulture optimization algorithm(AVOA)to realize the prediction model of multi-objective optimization least squares support vector machine(LSSVM).Firstly,the original wind power time series was decomposed into a certain number of intrinsic modal components(IMFs)using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Secondly,random numbers in population initialization were replaced by Tent chaotic mapping,multi-objective LSSVM optimization was introduced by AVOA improved by elitist non-dominated sorting and crowding operator,and then each component was predicted.Finally,Tent multi-objective AVOA-LSSVM(TMOALSSVM)method was used to sum each component to obtain the final prediction result.The simulation results show that the improved AVOA based on Tent chaotic mapping,the improved non-dominated sorting algorithm with elite strategy,and the improved crowding operator are the optimal models for single-objective and multi-objective prediction.Among them,TMOALSSVM model has the smallest average error of stroke power values in four seasons,which are 0.0694,0.0545 and 0.0211,respectively.The average value of DS statistics in the four seasons is 0.9902,and the statistical value is the largest.The proposed model effectively predicts four seasons of wind power values on lateral and longitudinal precision,and faster and more accurately finds the optimal solution on the current solution space sets,which proves that the method has a certain scientific significance in the development of wind power prediction technology.

粤港澳大湾区科技园地域性设计研究综述

文章综述了大湾区科技园地域性设计的理论研究进展;基于科技园地域性设计实践分类标准,对案例的类型及特点进行梳理;提出研究展望,以期为我国高质量发展背景下科技园的地域性设计提供参考。

对古文献中关于治疗夜盲方剂的研究

主要对古代中医文献中关于治疗夜盲/雀目的方剂进行总结分析,为治疗视网膜变性等相关疾病提供线索和经验。

花朦胧

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有一种品格叫“寡言”

现如今,有越来越多的年轻人不喜欢过农历新年。因为总会有一群血缘关系极近但平时不一定联络的亲戚,在过年时自以为热心地问出许多私人的话题,包括＂找到工作了没有呀？＂＂工作薪水怎么样呀？＂＂有没有对象呀？＂＂什么时候结婚呀？＂＂什么时候生小孩呀？＂这些唐突的问题,让许多年轻人很＂烦＂。事实上,如若没有建立在一定的亲密度与交情就去问这些私事实属失礼。也许问者无心,但由平时不太常相处的人骤然问之,确实颇不得体。说话,还真是一门学问。

Establishment and optimization of project investment risk income models on the basis of probability χ distribution

In this paper, two kinds of models are presented and optimized for project investment risk income on the basis of probability χ distribution. One kind of model being proved has only a maximal value and another kind being proved has no extreme values.

From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

Starting with the meanings of the terms “risk” and “uncertainty,””he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of “risk” and “uncertainty” interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective, and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

Geological uncertainty and risk:implications for the viability of mining projects

Computerized geological models are the basis of modern mine design,planning and production.A sound,validated geological model is essential to the success of a min- ing project.However,due to the complexity of geology surrounding deposits,geological models inherit uncertainty,or error.This geological uncertainty may significantly affect the risk profile of a mining project during its design and operational phases.Methodologies for quantifying geological uncertainty and risk have been developed by CRC Mining and the University of Queensland,Australia and successfully applied to case studies.This paper discussed the implications of geological uncertainty and risk to a coal mining project,and presents advances for quantifying geological/geotechnical uncertainty and risk.A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the technology developed.

THE INVESTMENT RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A SURFACE MINE

It is stipulated in the China national document, named'The Economical Appraisal Methods for Construction Projects' that dynamic analysis should dominate the project economical appraisal methods. This paper has set up a dynamic investment forecast model for Yuanbaoshan Surface Coal Mine. Based on this model, the investment reliability using simulation and analytic methods has been analysed, and the probability that the designed internal rate of return can reach 8.4%, from economic points of view, have been also studied.

Sex-Related Larval Susceptibility of Diamondback Moth, Plutella xylostella （Lepidoptera：Plutellidae） to some Reduced-Risk Insecticides

Five reduced-risk insecticides were compared for their toxicities to male and female third instar larvae of diamondback moth （DBM）, Plutella xylostella L. （Lepidoptera：Plutellidae） obtained from a laboratory colony. Leaf-dip bioassays were used to assess larval mortality at different insecticides rates （ranging from 0.01 mg AI/L to 100 mg A1/L） and exposure times （24, 48 and 72 h after treatment）. Toxicity of the insecticides generally increased with rate and exposure time. At 72 h after treatment, median lethal concentrations （LCs0s） of methoxyfenozide, spinosad, novaluron, indoxacarb and Bacillus thuringiensis （Bt） against the male third instar larvae of P, xylostella were 0.0524, 0.1117, 0.9149, 1.1939 and 4.4983 mg AI/L, respectively, and were 0.1008, 0.2583, 1.0649, 0.2850 and 5.3053 mg AI/L against female third instar larvae, respectively. At 0.1% of the approximate recommended field rates, methoxyfenozide （60%-75%） and spinosad （53%-57%） were the most toxic, while Bt （30%-45% mortality） was the least toxic to male and female P. xylostella larvae. Spinosad was the fastest acting and the only insecticide that caused significant larval mortality （17%） at 24 h after exposure. Significant sexual differences were recorded in the susceptibility of P. xylostella larvae to two of the insecticides： spinosad and indoxacarb. Male larvae were two-fold more susceptible to spinosad but 10-fold more tolerant to indoxacarb than female larvae.

Risk Threats in a Creative Funding Scheme for Infrastructure Project in Indonesia： Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan Toll Road Project Case

A creative solution to financial gap in Indonesian infrastructure development is the Public Private Partnership （PPP） scheme. One of the constraints in PPP implementation in toll road infrastructure is the lack of interest from the private sector, which are caused by the uncertainties defined as risks surrounding the project. This urges the importance of risk analysis on project investment to describe the measurement of risk allocated to the private sector. This paper aims at measuring the risks impacts on the project viability using Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan （Cisumdawu） Toll Road section as the case and finding some creative way out. By employing Monte Carlo risk analysis technique we are able to measure the risk impact perceived by the private sector through probability distribution of the project NPV and IRR. Based on the result of Monte Carlo analysis on the Cisumdawu toll road, the overall risk impact perceived by the private sector is too much to bear. The risks considered as high-impact are risks on land acquisition, risks on construction, risks on toll revenue, risks on interest rates and disaster risks on post construction phase. The result shows the importance of decreasing the risk level on the mentioned risk that can be done through the increased participation of local government in managing the toll road projects. A creative solution again is needed to strike balance between the interest of private sector and that of public sector to deal with risks.

Cost Risk Appraisal： An Application of Project RiskManagement Process in Libyan Construction Projects

Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.

Analysis of Risk Factors for Highway Construction Projects in Egypt

Egypt construction projects are associated with different levels of risks. The lack of familiarity of project management standards is one of the common risks in the construction industry in Egypt. The main aim of this paper is to identify the most significant risk factors affecting highway construction project in Egypt to decrease the likelihood and impact of those risks. The research method starts with extensive literature review to provide a prime risk factors list which was also augmented to expertise to reach final risk factor list which contains all risks that may be faced during highway construction. Subsequently, a set of 12 risk groups consisting of 73 risks was selected and a questionnaire survey was conducted to determine the likelihood and consequences of the identified risks. Later, a software application was developed using MATLAB to facilitate risk evaluation of highways projects. Results indicated that the risk factors arise from owner side is one of the most common risk factors in the construction industry in Egypt as the owner in the majority of construction project in Egypt is the governmental sector, however, the overall project risk of highway construction projects in Egypt is considered as at a medium level.

Delays to Large Construction Projects in Ghana： A Risk Overview

Delay to large scale projects, which is as a result of actions or inactions of some project stakeholders, is becoming a global phenomena and Ghana is no exception. The objective of the research is to identify, rate and rank the most significant risk factors that causes delay on projects and examine the social impact of these delays to recommend modalities to help mitigate these risk factors. The study adopted quantitative methods with the distribution of 144 questionnaires to built environment professionals receiving a response rate of 75.7%. The instrument listed 58 common factors under eight categories that contribute to the causes of delay for respondents to rate. Analysis of data non-parametric test revealed that client, contractor, material and finance category factors significantly resulted in the schedule delay of large infrastructural projects. The survey analysis revealed that micro-factors that result in delays to large construction projects are time constraint, cost overrun, payment problems, dispute and litigation. The research recommended the following modalities to minimize such delays： availability of resources, improved communication and coordination, proper scope definition and feasibilities, utilization of modern technology, appropriate application of technologically based systems and competent project management＇s structures.

Model of generic project risk element transmission theory based on data mining

In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.

Risk Analysis for Mega Shopping Mall Projects in Egypt

Mega shopping mall projects have seen dramatic growth and great development in recent years in Egypt. Many new mega shopping mall projects are under construction and expecting to start working in the few coming years. In the absence of researches studying the Egyptian mega shopping mall projects, this study tries to highlight the most critical risks that face these projects and the associated most effective response methods to be employed. The scope covers the analysis from different perspectives by including owners/developers, designers, consultants, project managers, and contractors that have previous experience in large-scale projects such as shopping mall projects. In this study, 30 construction project risks are classified into six main categories according to their type and 150 risk mitigation/elimination measures are introduced to overcome the impact of risks under each of these risk categories. The results reveal that the main risk category that faces the mega shopping mall projects in Egypt is the one including the financial risk factors. The most critical risk factor that faces these projects is the financial ability of the client. These results are similar to findings by previous researches conducted for large projects in other countries.

The risk analysis and prevention on the pro-poverty-tourism category BOT project

BOT is a new investment and financing model to find favor with many countries because of its own characteristics and advantages. The paper takes analysis on its characteristics and the main risk factors of the Chinese pro-poverty-tourism category BOT project based on the projects related to the domestic and international risk management, and gives some relevant preventive measures.

AN IMPACT STUDY OF A NEW TYPE OF DATA OF ADAPTIVE OR TARGETING OBSERVATION ON TYPHOON FORECAST

There was a new concept of ‘adaptive or targeting observation’ in recent years, which is anadditional and targeting observation based on the existing and fixed observing network for the atmosphere on theimpacted region. Dropsonde is one of the important observing instruments in the adaptive or targetingobservation. In this paper, GRAPES, the next generation of numerical weather prediction system of China hasbeen used. The impacts on the typhoon Dujuan (No.200315) forecast in experiments with dropsonde have beenstudied and experiments on sensitivity have also been done. It was found that the forecasts of the elements havebeen improved obviously with the use of dropsonde, such as the path, the center location, and the intensity oftyphoon. It was also found in the sensitivity studies that the setting of deviation structure also has obviousimpacts on the forecast for typhoons. It is not true that the simulation is better when the proportion of the data ofdropsonde is larger in the course to modify the background.

Risk Management： A New Project Management Perspective

Risk management in Botswana has been very ineffective at assisting projects to be on time, on budget, and meeting client＇s/buyer＇s expectations. Traditional risk management attempts to manage, control, and direct a project through various phases, from planning and design, through procurement, and to construction. However, the risk management in Botswana seems to be either not implemented or not successful. The project performance in Botswana has a poor performance record. The researchers are attempting to identify why the traditional project/risk management is not working. In analyzing the problem in Botswana, the researchers discovered that the traditional risk management model was theoretically unsound, and designed a new project and risk model, with an entirely different approach to risk. The new model is an outgrowth of the highly successful Performance Information Procurement System （PIPS） and the Information Measurement Theory （IMT）/Kashiwagi Solution Model （KSM） concepts. The approach has been presented to some Botswana clients and academics and has received a favorable response. The development of the new risk model will lead to a huge change in the paradigm for delivering projects in Botswana. The theoretical development of the new risk model is ongoing at the University of Botswana as a part of a doctoral dissertation.