Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other st...Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other studies have analyzed this model directly or nearly directly. This article empirically examines the New Keynesian model focusing on inflation forecast. Generalized method of moments （GMM） is used to examine whether the typical Keynesian model with Taylor rule is empirically appropriate for the US, UK, Euro area, and Japan. The results showed： （1） the New Keynesian model fits well in most cases and explains the real economy well. Taylor rule also fits well for most cases; （2） Rational expectations for inflation rates may not be useful based on this model When AR （1） （time series analysis） model is used to capture inflation expectations instead of one-time ahead real values, the model fits well. With measured expectations, the relative weight of the forward-looking terms increase on the cost of lagged inflation and output terms, even up to the point at which the lagged inflation terms are no longer needed to rescue the new Keynesian model; and （3） Forward-looking variables play more important roles than backward-looking ones in economic activity. Results with expectations with forward-looking terms perform better in general. This New Keynesian model may reduce the importance of lagged output in some cases展开更多
文摘Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other studies have analyzed this model directly or nearly directly. This article empirically examines the New Keynesian model focusing on inflation forecast. Generalized method of moments （GMM） is used to examine whether the typical Keynesian model with Taylor rule is empirically appropriate for the US, UK, Euro area, and Japan. The results showed： （1） the New Keynesian model fits well in most cases and explains the real economy well. Taylor rule also fits well for most cases; （2） Rational expectations for inflation rates may not be useful based on this model When AR （1） （time series analysis） model is used to capture inflation expectations instead of one-time ahead real values, the model fits well. With measured expectations, the relative weight of the forward-looking terms increase on the cost of lagged inflation and output terms, even up to the point at which the lagged inflation terms are no longer needed to rescue the new Keynesian model; and （3） Forward-looking variables play more important roles than backward-looking ones in economic activity. Results with expectations with forward-looking terms perform better in general. This New Keynesian model may reduce the importance of lagged output in some cases
