相识方式与婚姻稳定性——基于CFPS数据的事件史研究

中国离婚率的走高引起了社会各界的广泛关注,夫妻相识方式对婚姻稳定性的影响有待进一步探究。在当前自由恋爱式为主流的婚配背景下,学习和工作场域成为适婚个体在婚姻市场认识潜在对象最重要的两个场域,因此在学校或工作场所相识成为夫妻相识的主要方式。文章基于2010~2018年五期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,采用事件史分析方法研究“学校相识”和“工作场所相识”两类相识方式对婚姻稳定性的影响。研究发现:(1)“学校相识”比“工作场所相识”的婚姻稳定性显著更高,前者的离婚风险约为后者的39.043%;(2)“工作场所相识”的离婚风险峰值出现更早,约在婚后7年,而“学校相识”的峰值出现在13年左右;(3)分教育程度看,高教育程度群体在“学校相识”比“工作场所相识”的婚姻稳定性更高,其中前者的离婚风险约为后者的45.611%,而低教育程度群体内不存在该差异;(4)分出生队列看,相识方式对婚姻稳定性的效用在不同出生队列组中均显著且比较稳健。在理论和实证分析基础上,文章呈现了夫妻不同相识方式对婚姻稳定性的影响,讨论集中于婚姻稳定性维度。然而,稳定的婚姻不一定是令人满意的、幸福的婚姻。因此,研究结论并不能代表“学校相识”或“工作场所相识”的婚姻幸福度,不应被视为鼓励寻求特定类别对象的证据。

Temporal-spatial cross-correlation analysis of non-stationary near-surface wind speed time series

Temporal-spatial cross-correlation analysis of non-stationary wind speed time series plays a crucial role in wind field reconstruction as well as in wind pattern recognition.Firstly,the near-surface wind speed time series recorded at different locations are studied using the detrended fluctuation analysis(DFA),and the corresponding scaling exponents are larger than 1.This indicates that all these wind speed time series have non-stationary characteristics.Secondly,concerning this special feature( i.e.,non-stationarity)of wind signals,a cross-correlation analysis method,namely detrended cross-correlation analysis(DCCA) coefficient,is employed to evaluate the temporal-spatial cross-correlations between non-stationary time series of different anemometer pairs.Finally,experiments on ten wind speed data synchronously collected by the ten anemometers with equidistant arrangement illustrate that the method of DCCA cross-correlation coefficient can accurately analyze full-scale temporal-spatial cross-correlation between non-stationary time series and also can easily identify the seasonal component,while three traditional cross-correlation techniques(i.e.,Pearson coefficient,cross-correlation function,and DCCA method) cannot give us these information directly.