IPCC共享社会经济路径下中国和分省人口变化预估

基于2010年第六次中国人口普查数据,采用IPCC发布的可持续发展(SSP1)、中度发展(SSP2)、局部或不一致发展(SSP3)、不均衡发展(SSP4)、常规发展(SSP5)这5种共享社会经济路径,率定人口-发展-环境分析(PDE)模型中的人口生育率、死亡率、迁移率、教育水平等参数,对2011—2100年中国和31个省(区/市)人口变化进行预估。结果表明:1)不同SSP路径下,中国人口均呈先增加后减少的趋势,在高气候变化挑战的SSP3路径下人口最多,于2035年达到峰值,约14.27亿;在以适应挑战为主的SSP4路径下,人口出现最小值7.02亿。2)SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下人均寿命长,人口老龄化严重,其中SSP1和SSP5路径下人均教育水平高,到2100年教育水平在大学以上人口约占总人口的60%;SSP2路径下各年龄段分布比较均衡;SSP3路径下新生人口数量较多,劳动力充足,但教育水平较低。3)到2100年,SPP3路径下广西人口呈现最大值1.13亿,在其他路径下广东人口最多,达1.29亿。

Urban Hierarchy of Innovation Capability and Inter-city Linkages of Knowledge in Post-reform China

The 2000s has witnessed increasing interests in cities′role of innovation in the era of knowledge-based economy.Compared with substantial empirical analysis on the world city hierarchy of innovation,this paper attempts to examine the national urban hierarchy of innovation capability in China,in terms of ranking systems,spatial pattern and inter-city linkages of knowledge during the post-reform period since the late 1970s.Based on quantitative analysis such as principal component factor analysis and clustering analysis,this paper identifies the five-tier hierarchy of in-novation,which is headed by Beijing and Shanghai,followed by the capital cities of each province and regional centre cities.The development of China′s urban hierarchy of innovation capability has been driven by such factors as the scale of innovation,scientific scale,innovation potential and innovation environment.The paper further investigates the inter-city linkages of knowledge measured by the number of co-authored papers among the cities.Beijing is positioned in the central position of the knowledge diffusion and knowledge cooperation innovation.More knowledge diffusion among high level cities has occurred than that among the low level cities as well as between the low level cities and high level cities,and provincial capital cities and the regional central cities.

Function Zoning of the Major Function Development-optimized County:A Case in Shangyu,Zhejiang

The 11th Five Year Plan has divided national functional zones in the basic unit of county-level administrative region.After implementation of national Major Function-oriented Zones (MFOZ) at prefecture and county levels,the spatial development sequence must be specified,development intensity must be limited,oriented zones must be designated and "red line" areas of spatial governance must be defined.In view of the above,choosing a typical county area and exploring its functional zoning after orienting its major functions will supply reference for carrying out the national spatial planning in the 12th Five Year Period,and it will also provide experience for the study of function regionalization which is the theme of MFOZ in the present academic circles.In this paper,the authors take Shangyu County as an example to study the general principles,train of thought of county-level functional regionalization in development-optimized areas,and to explore its reasonable functional zoning plan.Consequently,the authors present five principles and suggest a function-oriented zoning plan with 2 levels and 4 types.

Study of Overseas Development and Construction of Sino- Russian Cooperation Agriculture Park of Jilin Province

Implement agricultural ＂going out＂ strategy, guide and promote agricultural enterprises＇ higher and wider participation in international agricultural division of labor and cooperation, foster transnational agricultural groups, which will help to speed up China＇s agricultural industrialization, internationalization and modernization, the promotion of domestic strategic adjustment of agricultural structure, the optimization and upgrading. Jilin Province shall make an integrated use of a variety of ways to strengthen the development strength of overseas market of agricultural resources and agricultural products, promote improved varieties, superior agricultural technology, equipment and agricultural products to ＂walk out＂, establish foreign grain, important industrial crop and fishery production base and independent logistics and trade system, and continuously improve the international competitiveness of China＇s agriculture. This thesis discusses the current research of overseas agriculture development and the major ways of the construction of Sino-Russian Cooperation Agriculture Park in Jilin Province. It also proposes the measures to accelerate the implementation of the development of Jilin Province Sino-Russian Cooperation Agriculture Park.

Export Competition in China： Evidence from Data at Provincial Level

Through an analysis of the effects of Guangdong on exports from other provinces, this paper examines China＇s interregional relationships regarding exports. We utilize provincial level data from 1998 to 2008 and apply the system GMM to estimate an empirical model derived from the gravity equation. The results indicate that Guangdong significantly crowds out exports from other provinces. Coastal provinces are less affected than their non-coastal counterparts. In coastal areas, the displacement effect on the Yangtze River Delta is less than that on the Pan Bohai Rim. Further research reveals that the improvements in service industries, labor productivity, capital-labor ratio, and agglomeration of manufacturing industries have significantly reduced export competition. Additionally, a province with a larger market potential or a lower degree of market disintegration is less affected by Guangdong＇s export competition.