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相似偏差订正法在短期温度预报中的应用研究 被引量:1
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作者 程胡华 王益柏 +2 位作者 赵亮 武帅 智茂林 《气象研究与应用》 2020年第3期21-26,共6页
为提高温度预报精度,本文提出一种新的相似偏差订正法建立短期温度预报模型,并与气象业务常用的多元回归法、BP神经网络法进行对比。结果表明:(1)温度预报精度均具有明显日变化特征,午后精度较高,而凌晨精度偏低;(2)基于20:00起报资料... 为提高温度预报精度,本文提出一种新的相似偏差订正法建立短期温度预报模型,并与气象业务常用的多元回归法、BP神经网络法进行对比。结果表明:(1)温度预报精度均具有明显日变化特征,午后精度较高,而凌晨精度偏低;(2)基于20:00起报资料得到的温度预报精度略高于08:00起报资料;(3)温度预报精度由高到低的顺序依次为相似偏差订正法、BP神经网络法、多元回归法和ECMWF模式产品的2 m温度,若从制作短期逐时温度预报的精度、合理性及运行效率等方面考虑,相似偏差订正法优于BP神经网络法和多元回归法。 展开更多
关键词 相似偏差订正法 多元回归 BP神经网络 短期温度预报
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湖北省短期温度预报的神经网络方法应用研究 被引量:2
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作者 胡江林 李才媛 李劲 《湖北气象》 2000年第2期4-7,共4页
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的 50 0hPa高度场、850hPa温度场、海平面气压场和地面报文资料 ,采用人工神经网络方法建立了湖北省 76个县 (市 )气象台站短期最高和最低温度的预报模型。经 1999年 9~ 11月试验发现 ,该模型预报效果较好 ,... 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的 50 0hPa高度场、850hPa温度场、海平面气压场和地面报文资料 ,采用人工神经网络方法建立了湖北省 76个县 (市 )气象台站短期最高和最低温度的预报模型。经 1999年 9~ 11月试验发现 ,该模型预报效果较好 ,特别是在气温变化较大的强冷空气爆发过程中的预报效果比一般线性预报方法更佳。 展开更多
关键词 最高温度 最低温度 人工神经网络 短期温度预报
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Determination of Effective Degree-Day for Supporting Chemical Control Against Cutworms (Lep. Noctuinae) in the Sugar Beet
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作者 Magdalena Jakubowska Felicyta Walczak JerzyJ6zefatLipa 《Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(A)》 2012年第3期314-326,共13页
The aim of the research was to connect two methods of the chemical control. The first chemical treatments were applied according to the signalling method. The second method was applied according to the phonological cr... The aim of the research was to connect two methods of the chemical control. The first chemical treatments were applied according to the signalling method. The second method was applied according to the phonological criterion i.e., on the basis of the values of effective temperatures sums or heat sums for cutworms. The studies on cutworms infesting sugar beet crops were carried out in the years 2005-2008. The observation performed during the moth flights from May to September included two species, turnip moth (Agrotis segetum Den. & Schiff.) and heart-and-dart moth (A. exclamationis L.). The dynamics of moth flights was recorded in reference to readings of climatic conditions registered with the field meteorological stations set up near the light traps. Observations on cutworm occurrence during the vegetation season were done every 5-7 days. Moreover, additional studies were conducted under control conditions in the growth chambers at three programmed temperatures (17°C, 20 °C, 24 °C) and relative humidity (50%-70%). Based on the results the values for the heat sum of 501.1 °C and effective temperatures sum of 230.0 °C were determined for the developmental stages of cutworm. On the base of the results obtained it can be stated that the improved method of short-term forecasting can be an alternative solution in the integrated protection management against pest. 展开更多
关键词 Cutworms monitoring DEGREE-DAY sums of effective temperatures light trap sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.).
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