基于PVAR模型的我国石油工业投资、碳排放和经济增长关系研究

为研究石油工业投资、石油工业碳强度和经济增长三者之间的关系,建立了"石油工业投资-碳强度-经济增长"三元交互影响结构,数据来源于我国27个省、市、自治区。Johansen协整检验结果表明,三者存在长期的稳定关系;面板自向量回归模型(PVAR)结果表明:石油工业碳强度与石油工业投资互为Granger原因,且两者存在较为显著的反向关系,即石油工业碳强度降低对石油工业投资有显著促进作用,石油工业投资增长会促进经济增长,而经济增长又会推动石油工业碳强度降低;脉冲响应图和方差分解结果表明各变量自身具备较为显著的惯性作用,即各自的变化对自身的影响贡献度最大;变系数模型检验结果表明各省、市、自治区间石油工业碳强度对石油工业投资的促进作用存在区域性差异。在此基础上,为我国石油工业发展提出增加低碳技术投资、加强低碳技术创新投资、平衡石油工业碳排放的区域性差异、健全低碳经济相关法律法规、发挥政府部门监督调控作用等建议。

石油工业上中游投资的协整关系研究

利用1995年~2014年石油工业上中游投资数据对石油工业上中游投资进行协整分析,发现石油工业上游投资和中游投资之间存在长期的正向均衡关系,误差修正模型的结果表明石油工业上游投资既受到石油工业中游投资的推动作用,又受到其制约作用,因此在石油工业投资决策中,应该对石油工业上中游的投资规模进行合理配置,以充分发挥石油工业中游投资对上游投资的促进作用,实现整体投资效果的最优。

Progress in Foreign Cooperation of China's Oil Industry

In 2015, China＇s oil companies＇ overseas equity oil has grown steadily to approximately 150 million tonnes. State-owned oil majors have turned from scale-oriented to profit-oriented by adjusting investment speed and optimizing portfolio to improve operating profit of overseas business. The overseas investment of private oil companies mainly focused on two fields： the first is to invest in countries along the Belt and Road （the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road）, and the second is to enter the oil industry of the developed countries by M＆A. Limited progress has been made in ＆e foreign cooperation of domestic upstream sector, while new changes emerged in the foreign cooperation of upstream sector. Some planned projects were postponed or delayed due to domestic or international market changes. Private oil companies, however, began to cooperate with foreign companies in the downstream sector after the former got the right to import crude oil.