矿区地下水位的混沌时间序列局域法预测

矿区地下水系统是一个非线性演化系统,地下水位的变化也是一个不可积的过程,随着采矿的进行,其演化过程会通过一定的轨道进入混沌状态。对杨庄煤矿1号奥灰水位的水文地质长观孔观测时间序列数据进行了分析,根据Pacard和Takens提出的相空间重构技术,首先采用自相关函数法计算其时间延迟,并计算其最佳嵌入维数,然后利用Wolf提出的方法,从单变量中提取出了最大Lyapunov指数,由计算结果得出时间序列具有混沌特性。在此基础上,采用混沌时间序列的局域法对水位做了6步预测,结果表明,混沌时间序列方法对混沌序列的预测具有较高的精度。

Influence of drainage of aquifer on settling of ground surface in mining area with high ground water level

Based on the basic principles of hydrogeology and soil mechanics, studied thegenesis mechanism and control factors of settling of ground surface caused by the drainageof the aquifer in the construction of coal mines, and put forward a corresponding calculatingmodel demonstrated by practical example.The study provides mining areas,which are covered with a very thick Quaternary soil layer and abundant ground water, witha theoretical basis aimed at forecasting the settling of ground surface.