The National Road RN 91 has been threatened for about twenty-five years by a huge landslide, located 25 km south-east to the town of Grenoble (France). If several million cubic meters of rock fall down, the debris wil...The National Road RN 91 has been threatened for about twenty-five years by a huge landslide, located 25 km south-east to the town of Grenoble (France). If several million cubic meters of rock fall down, the debris will dam the valley. Then the failure of the dam by overtopping and rapid erosion might result in a catastrophic flood and dramatic consequences for human life, environment and economy throughout the valley. The paper presents the hazard assessment based on geological and hydrological surveys, including small scale hydraulic tests, as well as the risk evaluation that has been performed. The risk management relies first upon a high level monitoring and an emergency plan; various mitigation strategies have been considered.展开更多
In this note,one kind of insurance risk models with the policies having multiple validity times are investigated.Explicit expressions for the ruin probabilities are obtained by using the martingale method.As a consequ...In this note,one kind of insurance risk models with the policies having multiple validity times are investigated.Explicit expressions for the ruin probabilities are obtained by using the martingale method.As a consequence,the obtained probability serves as an upper bound for the ruin probability of a newly developed entrance processes based risk model.展开更多
MASSIVE （mapping seismic vulnerability and risk of cities） is a GIS-based earthquake preparedness system that was developed under the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism project （GA No. 070401/2009/540429/SUB...MASSIVE （mapping seismic vulnerability and risk of cities） is a GIS-based earthquake preparedness system that was developed under the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism project （GA No. 070401/2009/540429/SUB/A4）, in order to provide civil protection authorities with accurate, and easily transferable tools for generating up-to-date maps of seismic hazard, seismic vulnerability and seismic risk of buildings, at the scale of the single building block. In addition, MASSIVE developed and ran state-of-the-art models to assess the risk for population evacuation in dense urban agglomerations given an earthquake event. The MASSIVE methodology was designed, implemented and validated considering two European pilot sites, heavily struck by recent earthquakes, which are the western part of the Larger Metropolitan Area of Athens （GR）, and the city of L＇ Aquila in the Abruzzo Region （IT）. The validation of the results using past earthquake records shows that the performance of MASSIVE is prosperous, achieving a correlation between the modeled and the on-site measured PGAs （peak ground accelerations） higher than 0.75, while the correlation between the on-site reported building damages and the ones predicted by the MASSIVE system has been of the order of 0.80.展开更多
文摘The National Road RN 91 has been threatened for about twenty-five years by a huge landslide, located 25 km south-east to the town of Grenoble (France). If several million cubic meters of rock fall down, the debris will dam the valley. Then the failure of the dam by overtopping and rapid erosion might result in a catastrophic flood and dramatic consequences for human life, environment and economy throughout the valley. The paper presents the hazard assessment based on geological and hydrological surveys, including small scale hydraulic tests, as well as the risk evaluation that has been performed. The risk management relies first upon a high level monitoring and an emergency plan; various mitigation strategies have been considered.
基金Supported by the Grant to Supervisors of Postgraduates with Universities in Gansu Province(1001-10)
文摘In this note,one kind of insurance risk models with the policies having multiple validity times are investigated.Explicit expressions for the ruin probabilities are obtained by using the martingale method.As a consequence,the obtained probability serves as an upper bound for the ruin probability of a newly developed entrance processes based risk model.
文摘MASSIVE （mapping seismic vulnerability and risk of cities） is a GIS-based earthquake preparedness system that was developed under the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism project （GA No. 070401/2009/540429/SUB/A4）, in order to provide civil protection authorities with accurate, and easily transferable tools for generating up-to-date maps of seismic hazard, seismic vulnerability and seismic risk of buildings, at the scale of the single building block. In addition, MASSIVE developed and ran state-of-the-art models to assess the risk for population evacuation in dense urban agglomerations given an earthquake event. The MASSIVE methodology was designed, implemented and validated considering two European pilot sites, heavily struck by recent earthquakes, which are the western part of the Larger Metropolitan Area of Athens （GR）, and the city of L＇ Aquila in the Abruzzo Region （IT）. The validation of the results using past earthquake records shows that the performance of MASSIVE is prosperous, achieving a correlation between the modeled and the on-site measured PGAs （peak ground accelerations） higher than 0.75, while the correlation between the on-site reported building damages and the ones predicted by the MASSIVE system has been of the order of 0.80.
