寻找社会治理与舆论治理的最佳切口

社会治理强调对社会逻辑的包容与尊重,把社会力量纳入公共治理框架,从而让社会主体性得到尊重和体现。社会舆论是社会公众意见、意愿的汇合。社会治理与舆论治理在理论上本应一致。但在当下中国,社会治理与舆论治理是错位的,社会治理按社会治理的轨道运作,舆论治理则按舆论治理的轨道运作,二者之间缺少必要的"交集",致使"软风险"和"硬风险"处于高位态势。因此,有效进行社会治理和舆论治理,需要找到二者之间的最佳切口。

试论粗放式创新、致毁创新、可持续创新理论与知识安全学

本文简要论述了粗放式创新、致毁创新、软风险、硬风险、容负容废、可持续创新、新科学观等新概念和可持续创新理论、创新人才评鉴法、知识安全学,力图在概念、理论、学科、人才等方面充实和发展社会可持续发展理论与战略研究。

Which prognostic factors should be used in pulmonary arterial hypertension in elderly patients？

In recent times, the prevalence of pulmonary arterial hypertension creased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, obesity, arterial stiffness, （PAH） is more commonly seen among elderly populations. The inas well as diastolic dysfunction, may cause endothelial dysfunction and affect pulmonary vasculature. Furthermore, older patients have certain differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes. In this article the special characteristics of aging in PAH patients have been reviewed, while the risk predictors of elderly patients are also discussed.

Pediatric nonalcoholic fatty liver disease,metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) encompasses a range of liver histology severity and outcomes in the absence of chronic alcohol use.The mildest form is simple steatosis in which triglycerides accumulate within hepatocytes.A more advanced form of NAFLD,nonalcoholic steatohepatitis,includes inflammation and liver cell injury,progressive to cryptogenic cirrhosis.NAFLD has become the most common cause of chronic liver disease in children and adolescents.The recent rise in the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity likely explains the NAFLD epidemic worldwide.NAFLD is strongly associated with abdominal obesity,type 2 diabetes,and dyslipidemia,and most patients have evidence of insulin resistance.Thus,NAFLD shares many features of the metabolic syndrome(MetS),a highly atherogenic condition,and this has stimulated interest in the possible role of NAFLD in the development of atherosclerosis.Accumulating evidence suggests thatNAFLD is associated with a significantly greater overall mortality than in the general population,as well as with increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease(CVD),independently of classical atherosclerotic risk factors.Yet,several studies including the pediatric population have reported independent associations between NAFLD and impaired flow-mediated vasodilatation and increased carotid artery intimal medial thickness-two reliable markers of subclinical atherosclerosis-after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors and MetS.Therefore,the rising prevalence of obesity-related MetS and NAFLD in childhood may lead to a parallel increase in adverse cardiovascular outcomes.In children,the cardiovascular system remains plastic and damage-reversible if early and appropriate interventions are established effectively.Therapeutic goals for NAFLD should address nutrition,physical activity,and avoidance of smoking to prevent not only end-stage liver disease but also CVD.

Prediction of risk of cardiovascular events in patients with mild to moderate coronary artery lesions using naive Bayesian networks

Background This prospective study integrated multiple clinical indexes and inflammatory markers associated with coronary atherosclerotic vulnerable plaque to establish a risk prediction model that can evaluate a patient with certain risk factors for the likelihood of the occurrence of a coronary heart disease event within one year. Methods This study enrolled in 2686 patients with mild to moderate coronary artery lesions. Eighty-five indexes were recorded, included baseline clinical data, laboratory studies, and procedural characteristics. During the 1-year follow-up, 233 events occurred, five patients died, four patients suffered a nonfatal myocardial infarction, four patients underwent revascularization, and 220 patients were readmitted for angina pectoris. The Risk Estimation Model and the Simplified Model were conducted using Bayesian networks and compared with the Single Factor Models. Results The area under the curve was 0.88 for the Bayesian Model and 0.85 for the Simplified Model, while the Single Factor Model had a maximum area under the curve of 0.65. Conclusion The new models can be used to assess the short-term risk of individual coronary heart disease events and may assist in guiding preventive care.

Subclinical atherosclerosis is linked to small intestinal bacterial overgrowth via vitamin K2-dependent mechanisms

To assess the rate of matrix Gla-protein carboxylation in patients with small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO) and to decipher its association with subclinical atherosclerosis.METHODSPatients with suspected SIBO who presented with a low risk for cardiovascular disease and showed no evidence of atherosclerotic plaques were included in the study. A glucose breath test was performed in order to confirm the diagnosis of SIBO and vascular assessment was carried out by ultrasound examination. Plasma levels of the inactive form of MGP (dephosphorylated-uncarboxylated matrix Gla-protein) were quantified by ELISA and vitamin K2 intake was estimated using a food frequency questionnaire.RESULTSThirty-nine patients were included in the study. SIBO was confirmed in 12/39 (30.8%) patients who also presented with a higher concentration of dephosphorylated-uncarboxylated matrix Gla-protein (9.5 μg/L vs 4.2 μg/L; P = 0.004). Arterial stiffness was elevated in the SIBO group (pulse-wave velocity 10.25 m/s vs 7.68 m/s; P = 0.002) and this phenomenon was observed to correlate linearly with the levels of dephosphorylated-uncarboxylated matrix Gla-protein (β = 0.220, R2 = 0.366, P = 0.03). Carotid intima-media thickness and arterial calcifications were not observed to be significantly elevated as compared to controls.CONCLUSIONSIBO is associated with reduced matrix Gla-protein activation as well as arterial stiffening. Both these observations are regarded as important indicators of subclinical atherosclerosis. Hence, screening for SIBO, intestinal decontamination and supplementation with vitamin K2 has the potential to be incorporated into clinical practice as additional preventive measures.

Particular evolution in a 72-year-old diabetic patient with acute coronary syndrome

Diabetes mellitus is an important risk factor for coronary atherosclerosis and many patients present extensive coronary stenosis at coronarography. However, in patients with diabetes, endothelial and microvascular dysfunction also participate in chronic and acute myocardial ischemia. Although the majority of diabetic patients with myocardial infarction have angiographic evidence of significant coronary artery disease.

Decreased expression of Klotho in cardiac atria biopsy samples from patients at higher risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Background Klotho proteins （α- and β） are membrane-based circulating proteins that regulate cell metabolism, as well as the lifespan modulating activity of Fibroblast Growth Factors （FGFs）. Recent data has shown that higher plasma circulating Klotho levels reduce cardio- vascular risk, suggesting Klotho has a protective role in cardiovascular diseases. However, although so far it has been identified in various organs, it is unknown whether cardiomyocytes express Klotho and FGFs, and whether high cardiovascular risk could affect cardiac expres- sion ofKlotho, FGFs and other molecules. Methods We selected 20 patients with an estimated 10-year high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and 10 age-matched control subjects with an estimated 10-year low risk undergone cardiac surgery for reasons other than coronary artery by-pass. In myocardial biopsies, we evaluated by immuno-histochemistry whether Klotho and FGFs were expressed in cardiomyo- cytes, and whether higher cardiovascular risk influenced the expression of other molecules involved in endoplasmic reticulum stress, oxida- tive stress, inflammation and fibrosis. Results Only cardiomyocytes of patients with a higher cardiovascular risk showed lower expression of Klotho, but higher expressions of FGFs. Furthermore, higher cardiovascular risk was associated with increased expression of oxidative and endoplasmic reticular stress, inflammation and fibrosis. Conclusions This study showed for the first time that Klotho proteins are ex- pressed in human cardiomyocytes and that cardiac expression of Klotho is down-regulated in higher cardiovascular risk patients, while expression of stress-related molecules were significantly increased.

Beneficial effect of sulphate-bicarbonate-calcium water on gallstone risk and weight control

AIM： To investigate the effect of drinking sulphate-bi- carbonate-calcium thermal water （TW） on risk factors for atherosclerosis and cholesterol gallstone disease.

Clinical features and treatment options for mitral regurgitation in elderly inpatients

Objective To summarize clinical characteristics and treatment strategy of Chinese elderly mitral regurgitation （MR） inpatients under the current guidelines, and to identify factors related to treatment options in them. Methods A single center retrospective study was conducted in which patients hospitalized in Fuwai hospital from May ist of 2014 to April 30 of 2015 with moderate to severe MR assessed by transthoraeic echocardiography were enrolled consecutively （n = 1741）. Patients 〉 60 years old were grouped as elderly group （n = 680） and patients 〈 60 years were grouped as control group （n = 1061）. The elderly group was categorized into two subgroups based on surgical status. Results The mean age of the elderly group was 66.98 i 5.94 years. The most common reason of MR in elderly group was degenerative MR （41.18%）. Atherosclerotic risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes or hyperlipidaemia were more commonly observed in elderly group than the control group （45.44% vs. 25.17%, P 〈 0.001; 19.56% vs. 8.48%, P 〈 0.001; 35.29% vs. 19.51%, P 〈 0.001）. Elderly group had higher Enroscore Ⅱ score （5.54 ± 2.42 vs. 3.15 ± 1.66）, greater left ventricular end diastolic diameter （LVEDD） （57.72±12.3 vs. 57.33 ± 10.19 ram） and a lower surgery rate （54.71% vs. 63.91%）; P 〈 0.05. Age, left ventricular ejection fraction （LVEF）, regurgitation grade, Eu- roScore-Ⅱ high risk stratification and having diabetes were identified as factors associated with therapy decisions in elderly MR patients. Conclusions Valve surgery was denied in 45.29% of elderly MR inpatients. Older age, impaired LVEF, lower regurgitation grade, Euro- Score-Ⅱ high risk stratification, and having diabetes were factors most significantly associated with surgery denial among elderly Chinese inpatients with MR.

Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

AIM:To evaluate the incidence of contrast-induced nephropathy(CIN)in cirrhotic patients and to identify risk factors for the development of CIN.METHODS:We performed a retrospective review of 216 consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent computed tomography(CT)with intravenous contrast at the University of Rochester between the years 2000-2005.We retrospectively examined factors associated with a high risk for CIN,defined as a decrease in creatinine clearance of 25%or greater within one week after receiving contrast.RESULTS:Twenty-five percent of our patients developed CIN,and 74%of these patients had ascites seen on CT.Of the 75%of patients who did not develop CIN,only 46%had ascites.The presence of ascites was a significant risk factor for the development of CIN(P=0.0009,OR 3.38,95%CI 1.55-7.34)in multivariate analysis.Patient age,serum sodium,Model for End-stage Liver Disease score,diuretic use,and the presence of diabetes were not found to be significant risk factors for the development of CIN.Of the patients who developed CIN,11%developed chronic renal insufficiency,defined as a creatinine clearance less than baseline for 6 wk.CONCLUSION:Our results suggest that in hospitalized cirrhotic patients,especially those with ascites,the risk of CIN is substantial.

Cardiovascular risk after orthotopic liver transplantation, a review of the literature and preliminary results of a prospective study

Improved surgical techniques and greater efficacy of new anti-rejection drugs have significantly improved the survival of patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation(OLT). This has led to an increased incidence of metabolic disorders as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases as causes of morbidity and mortality in OLT patients. In the last decade, several studies have examined which predisposing factors lead to increased cardiovascular risk(i.e., age, ethnicity, diabetes, NASH, atrial fibrillation, and some echocardiographic parameters) as well as which factors after OLT(i.e., weight gain, metabolic syndrome, immunosuppressive therapy, and renal failure) are linked to increased cardiovascular mortality. However, currently, there are no available data that evaluate the development of atherosclerotic damage after OLT. The awareness of high cardiovascular risk after OLT has not only lead to the definition of new but generally not accepted screening of high risk patients before transplantation, but also to the need for careful patient follow up and treatment to control metabolic and cardiovascular pathologies after transplant. Prospective studies are needed to better define the predisposing factors for recurrence and de novo occurrence of metabolic alterations responsible for cardiovascular damage after OLT. Moreover, such studies will help to identify the timing of disease progression and damage,which in turn may help to prevent morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular diseases. Our preliminary results show early occurrence of atherosclerotic damage, which is already present a few weeks following OLT, suggesting that specific, patient-tailored therapies should be started immediately post OLT.

Treatment of dyslipidemia in the elderly

Dyshpidemia is a well-established risk factor for atherosclerosis. Treating dyslipidemia in elderly patients requires specific knowledge and understanding of common dyslipidemias and the relative safety of various pharmacologic agents in the presence of possible multiple comorbidities. Lifestyle modification remains the first step in the treatment of dyslipidemia; however, it can be difficult to sustain and achieve acceptable compliance in the elderly and it is best used in combination with drug therapy. Statins are widely accepted as the first-line therapy. Several recent studies have demonstrated that statins are safe and effective in the elderly. However, it is important to note that there is very limited data regarding the effects of dyslipidemia treatment on morbidity and mortality in patients over 85 years of age. In summary, the clinicians must recognize that the presence of dyslipidemia in the elderly poses substantial risk of coronary events and stroke. The available evidence has demonstrated that in most elderly patients who are at increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, treatment of dyslipidemia with appropriate therapy reduces the risk, and when used carefully with close monitoring for safety, the treatment is generally well tolerated. With increasing life expectancy, it is critical for physicians to recognize the importance of detection and treatment of dyslipidemia in the elderly.

Chronic kidney disease as a predictor of clinical risk in the elderly

Facing the needs of an increasingly ageing population is rapidly becoming a major public health issue in western countries, Chronic kidney disease （CKD）, whose current prevalence is estimated around 10%-15% in the general population, with considerably higher figures in at-risk groups, is widely known to increase with age. In the elderly, renal impairment is often concomitant or secondary to several other systemic disorders such as hypertension, atherosclerosis,

宏观审慎政策调控住房市场的有效性研究

如何调控住房市场以防范金融系统性风险和经济硬着陆风险,已成为各国政府和经济学家们的棘手难题。在构建的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中引入以动态贷款价值比为宏观审慎政策工具的宏观审慎政策,研究宏观审慎政策调控住房市场的有效性。研究结果表明:(1)宏观审慎政策的实施能很好地达到稳定住房价格的目标,从而有效防范金融系统性风险。(2)宏观审慎政策的实施会使住房偏好冲击和技术冲击下住房市场的财富效应影响更显著,能有效防范住房偏好冲击和技术冲击引发的经济硬着陆风险。(3)宏观审慎政策的实施会使货币政策冲击和通货膨胀冲击下住房市场的财富效应影响更不显著,不能有效防范货币政策冲击和通货膨胀冲击引发的经济硬着陆风险。

Predicting lifetime risk for developing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in Chinese population:the China-PAR project

Evidence on the lifetime risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease （ASCVD） is insufficient; yet, estimating an individual＇s lifetime risk allows for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD burden. We developed and validated lifetime risk prediction equations for ASCVD using four large and ongoing prospective cohorts of Chinese, the China-PAR project （Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China）. Sexspecific equations were developed using two cohorts （as the derivation cohort） of 21,320 participants. Two other independent cohorts with 14,123 and 70,838 participants were used for their external valida- tion, respectively. We evaluated both calibration and discrimination measures for model performance. Furthermore, we estimated ASCVD-ffee years lost or excess absolute risk attributable to high 10-year risk （≥10.0%） and]or high lifetime risk （≥32.8%）. After 12.3 years＇ follow-up of the derivation cohort, 1048 ASCVD events and 1304 non-ASCVD deaths were identified. Our sex-specific equations had good internal validation, with discriminant C statistics of 0.776 （95% confidence interval [CI]： 0.757-0.794） and 0.801 （95% CI： 0.778-0.825）, and calibration Z2 of 9.2 （P = 0.418） and 5.6 （P = 0.777） for men and women, respectively. Good external validation was also demonstrated with predicted rates closely matched to the observed ones. Compared with men having both low 10-year and low lifetime risk, men would develop ASCVD 3.0, 4.6 and 8.6 years earlier if they had high 10-year risk alone, high lifetime risk alone, or both high 10-year and high lifetime risk at the index age of 35 years, respectively. We developed well- performed lifetime risk prediction equations that will help to identify those with the greatest potential to avert ASCVD burden after implementation of innovative clinical and public health interventions in China.

Relationship between Framingham risk score and subclinical atherosclerosis in carotid plaques： an in vivo study using multi-contrast MRI

The assessment and management of early-stage atherosclerosis are important for the prevention of cardiovascular disease(CVD).In this study,we used multi-contrast magnetic resonance imaging(MRI) to investigate the carotid plaque feature in asymptomatic,at-risk subjects;we also evaluated the correlation between MRI findings and Framingham risk score(FRS).One hundred sixty-six asymptomatic individuals with risk factors for CVD underwent multi-contrast MRI.After the arterial morphology and plaque components were outlined,the differences in carotid plaque burden among the various risk categories were analyzed.The FRS analysis showed that high-risk individuals had thicker vessel wall and higher plaque lipid content than did low risk participants.A substantial proportion of advanced carotid plaques occurred in low and intermediate-risk groups.Multi-contrast MRI may provide incremental value to the FRS in managing asymptomatic at-risk population.