Taking variability and uncertainty involved in performance prediction into account, in order to make the prediction reliable and meaningful, a distribution-based method is developed to predict future PSI. This method,...Taking variability and uncertainty involved in performance prediction into account, in order to make the prediction reliable and meaningful, a distribution-based method is developed to predict future PSI. This method, which is based on the AASHTO pavement performance model, treats predictor variables as random variables with certain probability distributions and obtains the distribution of future PSI through the method of Monte-Carlo simulation. A computer program PERFORM using Monte Carlo simulation is developed to implement the numerical computation. Simulation results based on pavement and traffic parameters show that traffic, surface layer material property, and initial pavement performance are the most significant factors affecting pavement performance. Once the distribution of future PSI is determined, statistics such as the mean and the variance of future PSI are readily available.展开更多
股票市场具有变化快、干扰因素多、周期数据不足等特点,股票交易是一种不完全信息下的博弈过程,单目标的监督学习模型很难处理这类序列化决策问题。强化学习是解决该类问题的有效途径之一。提出了基于深度强化学习的智能股市操盘手模型I...股票市场具有变化快、干扰因素多、周期数据不足等特点,股票交易是一种不完全信息下的博弈过程,单目标的监督学习模型很难处理这类序列化决策问题。强化学习是解决该类问题的有效途径之一。提出了基于深度强化学习的智能股市操盘手模型ISTG(Intelligent Stock Trader and Gym),融合历史行情数据、技术指标、宏观经济指标等多数据类型,分析评判标准和优秀控制策略,加工长周期数据,实现可增量扩展不同类型数据的复盘模型,自动计算回报标签,训练智能操盘手,并提出直接利用行情数据计算单步确定性动作值的方法。采用中国股市1400多支的有10年以上数据的股票进行多种对比实验,ISTG的总体收益达到13%,优于买入持有总体−7%的表现。展开更多
Bianchi type I string dust cosmological models in the presence and absence of magnetic field in the frame work of Lyra geometry are investigated. To get the deterministic model of the universe, we assume that the eige...Bianchi type I string dust cosmological models in the presence and absence of magnetic field in the frame work of Lyra geometry are investigated. To get the deterministic model of the universe, we assume that the eigenvalue （σ^11） of shear tensor （σ^ii） is proportional to expansion （θ）. This leads to A = （BC）^n, where A, B, C are metric potentials and n is a constant. To discuss the results in terms of cosmic time t, we have considered n = 1. The physical and geometrical aspects＇ of the models and singularities in the models are also discussed.展开更多
The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has...The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has become one of the core contents of the income approach. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, such as strict conditions of assumption and the complexity of environment. However, the current valuation practice in this aspect varies greatly and sometimes depends on personally experienced judgment of appraisers. Therefore, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach, and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）.展开更多
In this paper, we conduct research on the cause and dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Laizhou bay. To consider modelling the Laizhou bay, we should then take the listed tools into consideration. In actual engineer...In this paper, we conduct research on the cause and dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Laizhou bay. To consider modelling the Laizhou bay, we should then take the listed tools into consideration. In actual engineering, wave is a complicated stochastic process. If the numerical value of wave model is a little too large, the wave attenuation should be considered sufficiently, such as wave refraction caused by terrain change, wave attenuation due to submarine friction, wave into the very shallow waters of the broken and small wind area. We integrate the current conition of the Laizhou bay and the further model the seawater intrusion steps. The uncertainty research of ground water solute migration is at present a ground water research area quite popular topic, but the seawater intrusion is the variable density class solute migration issue, applies the uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion simulation also to have certain difficulty the existing research results. In the future, more simulation will be down to verify the effectiveness.展开更多
The inherent nonlinearities of the rudder servo system(RSS) and the unknown external disturbances bring great challenges to the practical application of fault detection technology. Modeling of whole rudder system is a...The inherent nonlinearities of the rudder servo system(RSS) and the unknown external disturbances bring great challenges to the practical application of fault detection technology. Modeling of whole rudder system is a challenging and difficult task. Quite often, models are too inaccurate, especially in transient stages. In model based fault detection, these inaccuracies might cause wrong actions. An effective approach, which combines nonlinear unknown input observer(NUIO) with an adaptive threshold, is proposed. NUIO can estimate the states of RSS asymptotically without any knowledge of external disturbance. An adaptive threshold is used for decision making which helps to reduce the influence of model uncertainty. Actuator and sensor faults that occur in RSS are considered both by simulation and experimental tests. The observer performance, robustness and fault detection capability are verified. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed fault detection scheme is efficient and can be used for on-line fault detection.展开更多
Agriculture is a leading strategic sector in Turkey as it is in entire world. Despite this strategic significance, risks, and uncertainties, the dependence on natural conditions turns agriculture into a disadvantaged ...Agriculture is a leading strategic sector in Turkey as it is in entire world. Despite this strategic significance, risks, and uncertainties, the dependence on natural conditions turns agriculture into a disadvantaged sector. Just because of these disadvantages, agriculture is protected by various support policies throughout the world. Agricultural policies of Turkey have initiated with institutionalization policies of the Republican period and progressed through product supports, input supports, and low-interest credit implementations of the planned period. These policies experienced serious reforms at the beginning of 2000s. Within the scope of Agricultural supports and Reforms Implementation Project （ARIP）, agricultural supports tried to be gathered under a single roof and Direct Income Support （DIS） implementations started. The DIS implementations lasted for eight years and terminated in 2008. The aim of this study is to examine agricultural supports in Turkey and their shares in the public budget. As material, macroeconomic data are used in this study. The data consist of transfers from the ministry of food, agriculture, and livestock to agriculture and budget numbers. The results of the study reveal that current agricultural policy tools are implemented as area-based supports, subsidiary payments, rural development, and agricultural insurance supports. The budget allocated to agriculture and the share of agricultural supports in Gross Domestic Product （GDP） of Turkey does not exhibit much change in years. Considering the policies and supports provided in developed countries and especially in European Union （EU） countries, it recommend for Turkey that the share of agricultural supports in total budget should be increased to levels in those countries.展开更多
基金The US National Science Foundation (No. CMMI-0408390,CMMI-0644552)the American Chemical Society Petroleum Research Foundation(No. PRF-44468-G9 )+2 种基金Chang Jiang Scholars Program,the Fok Ying-Tong Education Foundation (No. 114024 )the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No. SBK200910046 )the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No.0901005C)
文摘Taking variability and uncertainty involved in performance prediction into account, in order to make the prediction reliable and meaningful, a distribution-based method is developed to predict future PSI. This method, which is based on the AASHTO pavement performance model, treats predictor variables as random variables with certain probability distributions and obtains the distribution of future PSI through the method of Monte-Carlo simulation. A computer program PERFORM using Monte Carlo simulation is developed to implement the numerical computation. Simulation results based on pavement and traffic parameters show that traffic, surface layer material property, and initial pavement performance are the most significant factors affecting pavement performance. Once the distribution of future PSI is determined, statistics such as the mean and the variance of future PSI are readily available.
文摘股票市场具有变化快、干扰因素多、周期数据不足等特点,股票交易是一种不完全信息下的博弈过程,单目标的监督学习模型很难处理这类序列化决策问题。强化学习是解决该类问题的有效途径之一。提出了基于深度强化学习的智能股市操盘手模型ISTG(Intelligent Stock Trader and Gym),融合历史行情数据、技术指标、宏观经济指标等多数据类型,分析评判标准和优秀控制策略,加工长周期数据,实现可增量扩展不同类型数据的复盘模型,自动计算回报标签,训练智能操盘手,并提出直接利用行情数据计算单步确定性动作值的方法。采用中国股市1400多支的有10年以上数据的股票进行多种对比实验,ISTG的总体收益达到13%,优于买入持有总体−7%的表现。
文摘Bianchi type I string dust cosmological models in the presence and absence of magnetic field in the frame work of Lyra geometry are investigated. To get the deterministic model of the universe, we assume that the eigenvalue （σ^11） of shear tensor （σ^ii） is proportional to expansion （θ）. This leads to A = （BC）^n, where A, B, C are metric potentials and n is a constant. To discuss the results in terms of cosmic time t, we have considered n = 1. The physical and geometrical aspects＇ of the models and singularities in the models are also discussed.
文摘The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has become one of the core contents of the income approach. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, such as strict conditions of assumption and the complexity of environment. However, the current valuation practice in this aspect varies greatly and sometimes depends on personally experienced judgment of appraisers. Therefore, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach, and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）.
文摘In this paper, we conduct research on the cause and dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Laizhou bay. To consider modelling the Laizhou bay, we should then take the listed tools into consideration. In actual engineering, wave is a complicated stochastic process. If the numerical value of wave model is a little too large, the wave attenuation should be considered sufficiently, such as wave refraction caused by terrain change, wave attenuation due to submarine friction, wave into the very shallow waters of the broken and small wind area. We integrate the current conition of the Laizhou bay and the further model the seawater intrusion steps. The uncertainty research of ground water solute migration is at present a ground water research area quite popular topic, but the seawater intrusion is the variable density class solute migration issue, applies the uncertainty analysis of seawater intrusion simulation also to have certain difficulty the existing research results. In the future, more simulation will be down to verify the effectiveness.
基金Project(51221004)supported by the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(51175453)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The inherent nonlinearities of the rudder servo system(RSS) and the unknown external disturbances bring great challenges to the practical application of fault detection technology. Modeling of whole rudder system is a challenging and difficult task. Quite often, models are too inaccurate, especially in transient stages. In model based fault detection, these inaccuracies might cause wrong actions. An effective approach, which combines nonlinear unknown input observer(NUIO) with an adaptive threshold, is proposed. NUIO can estimate the states of RSS asymptotically without any knowledge of external disturbance. An adaptive threshold is used for decision making which helps to reduce the influence of model uncertainty. Actuator and sensor faults that occur in RSS are considered both by simulation and experimental tests. The observer performance, robustness and fault detection capability are verified. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed fault detection scheme is efficient and can be used for on-line fault detection.
文摘Agriculture is a leading strategic sector in Turkey as it is in entire world. Despite this strategic significance, risks, and uncertainties, the dependence on natural conditions turns agriculture into a disadvantaged sector. Just because of these disadvantages, agriculture is protected by various support policies throughout the world. Agricultural policies of Turkey have initiated with institutionalization policies of the Republican period and progressed through product supports, input supports, and low-interest credit implementations of the planned period. These policies experienced serious reforms at the beginning of 2000s. Within the scope of Agricultural supports and Reforms Implementation Project （ARIP）, agricultural supports tried to be gathered under a single roof and Direct Income Support （DIS） implementations started. The DIS implementations lasted for eight years and terminated in 2008. The aim of this study is to examine agricultural supports in Turkey and their shares in the public budget. As material, macroeconomic data are used in this study. The data consist of transfers from the ministry of food, agriculture, and livestock to agriculture and budget numbers. The results of the study reveal that current agricultural policy tools are implemented as area-based supports, subsidiary payments, rural development, and agricultural insurance supports. The budget allocated to agriculture and the share of agricultural supports in Gross Domestic Product （GDP） of Turkey does not exhibit much change in years. Considering the policies and supports provided in developed countries and especially in European Union （EU） countries, it recommend for Turkey that the share of agricultural supports in total budget should be increased to levels in those countries.
