Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper ...Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper puts forward the prediction method using the dynamic seismicity pattern with dynamic implications. This method considers the formation and evolution of the seismic gap on the basis of plate movement and structural characteristics. Through analysis of 26 cases of earthquakes of MS≥5.0 occurring in East China and South China, this paper obtains the relationship between the main shock with seismic gap and active fault's location, as well as the relationship between the seismic gap and location and strike of active faults. Meanwhile, this paper provides a dynamic explanation of the differences in the formation and evolution patterns of the seismic gap between the two regions, thus providing the physical basis for and reducing the uncertainty of predicting earthquakes using the seismic gap method.展开更多
The authors achieve a general law of precise asymptotics for a new kind of complete moment convergence of i.i.d. random variables, which includes complete con- vergence as a special case. It can describe the relations...The authors achieve a general law of precise asymptotics for a new kind of complete moment convergence of i.i.d. random variables, which includes complete con- vergence as a special case. It can describe the relations among the boundary function, weighted function, convergence rate and limit value in studies of complete convergence. This extends and generalizes the corresponding results of Liu and Lin in 2006.展开更多
A foremost issue of our time is our response to risks,especially those arising from scientific uncertainty,such as genetically modified organisms(GMOs).In this context,we need to achieve and maintain environmental jus...A foremost issue of our time is our response to risks,especially those arising from scientific uncertainty,such as genetically modified organisms(GMOs).In this context,we need to achieve and maintain environmental justice.This should be based on the corresponding scientific research;essentially,however,it is a kind of social construct.We must maintain a free market mechanism for the development,application,and dissemination of modern technology,including genetically modified biotech and its products.At the same time,the necessary government intervention and legal regulation of the relevant science and technology should be put in place to ensure public safety and the interests of socially disadvantaged groups.展开更多
In order to research the uncertainty propagation laws of Mars entry dynamic equations for the Mars entry phase,an improved method was presented for analyzing the effect of the initial state uncertainties and uncertain...In order to research the uncertainty propagation laws of Mars entry dynamic equations for the Mars entry phase,an improved method was presented for analyzing the effect of the initial state uncertainties and uncertainty factor on the system state in the state trajectories.When applying the method to the entry phase of one of the NASA Mars exploration missions,the simulation results agreed well with the Monte Carlo method,especially the flight path angle simulation at least reaching 92%.It is found that the improved method can not only predict the uncertainty propagation laws with high accuracy of at least 92%in flight path angle simulation and large application scope from-0.1degree to 0.1degree,compared with local linearization method,but also save several hours relative to Monte Carlo method.展开更多
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Program of China Earthquake Administration (No. 2006BAC01B02-01-05)Anhui Provincial Science and Technique Foundation (No. 08010302204)Joint Earthquake Science Fundation (A08077)
文摘Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper puts forward the prediction method using the dynamic seismicity pattern with dynamic implications. This method considers the formation and evolution of the seismic gap on the basis of plate movement and structural characteristics. Through analysis of 26 cases of earthquakes of MS≥5.0 occurring in East China and South China, this paper obtains the relationship between the main shock with seismic gap and active fault's location, as well as the relationship between the seismic gap and location and strike of active faults. Meanwhile, this paper provides a dynamic explanation of the differences in the formation and evolution patterns of the seismic gap between the two regions, thus providing the physical basis for and reducing the uncertainty of predicting earthquakes using the seismic gap method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.10571073)the 985 Program of Jilin University.
文摘The authors achieve a general law of precise asymptotics for a new kind of complete moment convergence of i.i.d. random variables, which includes complete con- vergence as a special case. It can describe the relations among the boundary function, weighted function, convergence rate and limit value in studies of complete convergence. This extends and generalizes the corresponding results of Liu and Lin in 2006.
文摘A foremost issue of our time is our response to risks,especially those arising from scientific uncertainty,such as genetically modified organisms(GMOs).In this context,we need to achieve and maintain environmental justice.This should be based on the corresponding scientific research;essentially,however,it is a kind of social construct.We must maintain a free market mechanism for the development,application,and dissemination of modern technology,including genetically modified biotech and its products.At the same time,the necessary government intervention and legal regulation of the relevant science and technology should be put in place to ensure public safety and the interests of socially disadvantaged groups.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB720000)
文摘In order to research the uncertainty propagation laws of Mars entry dynamic equations for the Mars entry phase,an improved method was presented for analyzing the effect of the initial state uncertainties and uncertainty factor on the system state in the state trajectories.When applying the method to the entry phase of one of the NASA Mars exploration missions,the simulation results agreed well with the Monte Carlo method,especially the flight path angle simulation at least reaching 92%.It is found that the improved method can not only predict the uncertainty propagation laws with high accuracy of at least 92%in flight path angle simulation and large application scope from-0.1degree to 0.1degree,compared with local linearization method,but also save several hours relative to Monte Carlo method.
