碳排放权交易市场碳配额价格关联机制研究——基于计量模型的关联分析

依据温室气体排放凭证种类的不同碳排放权交易市场的交易产品可分为碳排放配额和碳排放核证减排量两种。随着碳排放权交易市场的日益活跃,以及交易机制的不断完善,不同产品价格之间的相互影响关系也日趋紧密。如何认识并利用产品价格的关联关系,对于及时掌握碳市场的价格信号,依据不同阶段合理选择交易产品的类型,稳定和调控市场运行起着至关重要的作用。本文选取碳排放配额和碳排放核证减排量两种商品的现货价格以及期货价格作为研究对象,通过自回归模型和脉冲响应函数来分析比较上述商品价格之间的影响关系。研究结果发现,碳排放配额的价格在市场上处于主导作用,对碳排放核证减排量价格有引导作用,碳排放核证减排量的现货价格对碳排放配额的现货价格也具有较大的拉动作用,不同阶段的碳排放配额期货价格对碳排放配额现货价格的冲击作用存在差异。在此基础上,提出我国在未来碳排放权交易市场管理,应重视碳排放配额现货价格,注重发挥不同的碳排放权产品在价格管理方面的作用,逐步形成碳排放权交易市场内不同产品价格间相互促进的良性发展机制。

后京都时代(2012～2020年)碳排放权分配的战略构想——兼及“共同但有区别的责任”原则

碳排放权与碳减排责任的分配是气候谈判中的核心问题,从以国家为单元分配排放指标的国际公平向以人口为基础的人均平等分配排放指标的转变是一个基本的发展趋势。＂紧缩与趋同＂方法、＂人均累积排放＂方法、＂一个地球、四个世界＂的减排路线图均有一定的合理性与局限性。在后京都时代（2012~2020年）的碳排放权分配中特别需要注意以下几个重大问题：分配正义与矫正正义的区分;罗尔斯正义两原则中的＂平等自由原则＂与＂差别原则＂;碳减排中的＂三个世界＂的划分。

电力设备碳排放分析及碳捕捉技术在电力系统中的应用研究

本文针对电力设备碳排放问题,探讨了碳捕捉技术在电力系统中的应用,包括碳捕捉技术的概述、应用、效果以及经济性。同时,本文还探讨了电力设备碳排放减排对策,包括电力设备碳排放减排的意义、碳排放减排对策、洁净能源的应用以及碳交易的推广。通过研究发现,碳捕捉技术在电力系统中的应用可有效减少碳排放,同时洁净能源的应用和碳交易的推广也是减少电力设备碳排放的重要措施。

碳排放约束下经济可持续发展最优路径研究

文章探讨了一个在碳排放约束下的经济可持续增长问题。运用系统动力学原理构建经济可持续增长的SD模型，模拟了在减排技术研发背景下，我国经济增长、能源消费以及碳排放的增长路径。结果表明：我国经济的增长能够实现可持续发展；减排技术研发能有效减少二氧化碳排放量，但对经济可持续增长的作用需要做进一步的分析。

从科学和政策视角看碳预算对全球气候治理的作用

IPCC第五次评估报告进一步阐述和明确了全球平均地表温升与累积CO_2排放之间的近似线性关系。尽管在科学上仍存在一定的不确定性,国际社会对2℃温升目标及所对应的全球累积碳排放空间(即全球碳预算目标)已达成一定的科学认知和政治共识。但如何将碳预算从目标要求转变为各国决策和实际行动,仍是政策制定者们所面临的一个重要问题。在此背景下,提出建立一个有效的碳预算综合管理框架,努力避免人为温室气体排放导致气候系统危害,并利用其科学和政策的双重内涵,来推动谈判进程和加大行动力度,在新型气候治理模式下推动全球减排目标的实现。

中国碳减排的技术路径及政策建议——基于经典估计贝叶斯平均(BACE)法的实证研究

在低碳经济已经成为时代主题的背景下,寻求低碳化发展路径,保持经济持续增长的同时实现碳减目标已成为当前的研究热点。由于经济系统的开放性及碳排放动力机制的复杂性,参数的选取会引致研究结果的不同。在充分考虑后验概率的基础上,基于1995-2009年的面板数据和扩展后的STRIPAT模型,运用经典估计贝叶斯平均(BACE)法,对中国碳排放强度的影响因素进行了实证分析,研究结果表明:能源强度、一次能源结构、经济发展规模和城市化发展水平等四个因素对其有较强并且稳健的影响力;若非采取更为有效的措施,中国将无法如期实现碳减目标。

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on CO_2 Mitigation and Economic Growth in China

In this paper we examine the impacts of carbon tax policy on CO2 mitigation effects and economic growth in China by using a dynamic energy-environment-economy computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The results show that 30, 60, and 90 RMB per ton CO2 of carbon tax rate will lead to a reduction of CO2 emissions by 4.52%, 8.59%, and 12.26%, as well as a decline in the GDP by 0.11%, 0.25%, and 0.39% in 2020, respectively, if carbon tax revenues are collected by the government. Moreover, with energy efficiency improvements the CO2 emission per unit of GDP will equally drop by 34.79%, 37.49%, and 39.92% in 2020, respectively. Negative impacts on sectors and households will be alleviated if carbon tax revenues are returned to these sectors and households.

CO2 Marginal Abatement Cost and Determinants——An Empirical Analysis of Sample Cities in China

This paper investigates the marginal abatement cost （MAC） of CO： emissions across 104 Chinese cities between 2001 and 2008. Based on parametric directional distance function, this paper discovers that the mean marginal abatement cost of CO2 emissions for sample cities was 967 yuan/ton. In terms of region, CO： marginal abatement cost is significantly higher in China＇s eastern region than in central and western regions; in terms of provincial-level region, it is the highest in Shanghai and the lowest in Shaanxi in terms of city, it is the highest in Shanghai and the lowest in Zhangjiajie with the ratio between their medians being at 48：1; in terms of time, marginal abatement cost has been always on the rise with significant intercity disparities. There is a U-shaped curve relationship between marginal abatement cost of cities and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, which is negatively correlated with the share of secondary industry and positively correlated with the level of urbanization.

China's Voluntary Mitigation Target and Road of Low-carbon Development

China is going through a rapid development stage of industrialization and urbanization.Although tremendous achievements have been made in the aspects of energy conservation,improvement of energy effectiveness and development of new and renewable energies,because of the rapid development of economy,it is difficult to change the huge total amount and fast increase of CO2 emission in the near future.China has to confront the tough challenge to address global climate change.China plans to reduce carbon intensity,that is,CO2 emissions per unit GDP,by 40 to 45% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level.It is a strategic option to coordinate domestic sustainable development with coping with global climate change on the basis of China's national circumstances,representing the core content and key measures for transforming development pattern and realizing low-carbon development.To achieve the target,more capital and technology inputs are required for energy conservation and low-carbon development during the twelfth and Thirteenth Five Year Plan period than in the Eleventh Five Year Plan period.In addition,energy conservation achieved by structural adjustment,industrial upgrading and product value-added improvement is also expected to play a greater role.Therefore,China should strengthen technological innovation,make greater efforts to transform the development pattern,take advantage of the synergistic effect of policies and measures while coping with global climate change and building a domestic tow-oriented society.China should also establish an industrial system characterized by low-carbon emission.Then China will ultimately achieve a win-win situation in both domestic sustainable development and coping with global climate change.

基于建构主义理论的高中地理课程思政路径探究

当前,高中地理课程思政多关注内容的显性化表达,授课形式生硬,学生对知识的内化程度不高,导致育人效果弱化。文章对课程思政进行了剖析,明确了思政内容隐性育人的重要价值,结合建构主义理论的观点梳理了当前课程思政存在的具体问题,从思维、情境、价值观三个层面提出了高中地理课程思政的实施路径,并以“碳排放与碳减排”为例进行了案例设计。

City-level emission peak and drivers in China

China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation,and local authorities need more city-specifc information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies.This study provides the most comprehensive COemission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 to2019.The emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement production.We further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving forces.The results show that38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least fve years and another 21 cities also have emission decline,but passively.The 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by effciency improvements and structural changes in energy use,while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population loss.We propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline,and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation goals.Proactively peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak.

Analysis of the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions and Countermeasures for Carbon Emission Reduction in Hebei Province

In this paper,the quadratic polynomial and cubic polynomial functions were applied to analyze the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)of carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The improved STIRPAT model was also applied to assess the driving factors and reduction paths for carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The results lead to three main conclusions.Firstly,carbon emissions and economic growth in Hebei Province are in a positive correlation stage which has not formed the EKC curve,and the“decoupling”stage between carbon emissions and economic growth has not arrived yet.Secondly,the industrial structure,per capita GDP,fixed assets investment,population size and urbanization rate account for the highest proportion of carbon emissions.Carbon emissions can be reduced greatly by changing the energy structure,in which the proportion of coal is decreased year by year.Environmental regulation also has an obvious effect on the reduction of carbon emissions.Thirdly,it is suggested that the reduction of carbon emissions in Hebei Province should focus on four tasks:controlling the development of heavy industry,avoiding overcapacity,optimizing the industrial structure and accelerating the development of clean energy.