China's energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions: 1) China's gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2...China's energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions: 1) China's gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2) coal's share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3) non-fossil energy's share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4) through 2030, China's GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5) the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6) the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China's electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China's energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.展开更多
In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of expo...In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China's entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China's total exports value because China's carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.展开更多
This study uses an input-output model presenting the embodied carbon emission in the importexport procedure, as well as the responsibility allocation between China's 35 sectors and 7 main trade partners from 1995 ...This study uses an input-output model presenting the embodied carbon emission in the importexport procedure, as well as the responsibility allocation between China's 35 sectors and 7 main trade partners from 1995 to 2011. Results indicate that the amount of carbon emissions in China's industrial sectors is immense and that the industrial sectors are in serious imbalance. Such imbalance exists mainly in textiles, basic and fabricated metal, electrical and optical equipment,and machinery, among others. Based on the consumer-responsibility principle, the responsibility of 29 departments is reduced. Correspondingly, foreign sectors become more responsible.America, as China's largest trading partner, should account for most of the total responsibility,followed by developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany.展开更多
An electricity generation planning model of the six major Chinese power grids was developed based on the General Algebraic Modeling System to evaluate and analyze the CDM (clean development mechanism), including con...An electricity generation planning model of the six major Chinese power grids was developed based on the General Algebraic Modeling System to evaluate and analyze the CDM (clean development mechanism), including consideration of the environmental co-benefits of reductions in air pollutants (SO~, NO~ and particulate matter) achieved by advanced electricity generation technologies incorporating CCS (carbon capture and storage). An objective function was developed that included revenue from sales of electric power, total system cost, the cost of CO2 transport and storage, and emissions reduction co-benefits for SOx, NO~, and particulate matter. The objective function was minimized using an optimization model. We also developed a method for evaluating and analyzing the potential for transferring advanced power generation technologies into the Chinese power system through the CDM. We found that: (1) thermal power generation is predominant in the Chinese electricity system and will remain so for a long time; (2) advanced thermal plants are being installed as a result of the CDM, which contribute to decreasing emissions of CO2 and other air pollutants; and (3) CCS projects have significant potential to reduce substantial and sustained CO2 emissions from the Chinese power and industrial sectors.展开更多
We verified that the matrix method, a process analysis method used mainly for life cycle inventory analysis, has several advantages in the analysis of power systems, which have recently become more complex to enhance ...We verified that the matrix method, a process analysis method used mainly for life cycle inventory analysis, has several advantages in the analysis of power systems, which have recently become more complex to enhance efficiency and to reduce C02 emissions. While designing a conceptual thermodynamic model of a complex power system, the matrix method provides a definite procedure and facilitates calculations, even if there is a recttrsive loop between the upstream and downstream processes. Similarly, in the case of partial modification to the constructed model, the matrix method can potentially reduce the time and effort required to calculate the thermodynamic balances, even if the constructed model is designed by others. In this study, we obtained mass flow and energy balances of example model power systems by the matrix method from the common thermodynamic conditions including temperatures and pressures which are set on the basis of an existing industrial steam power system. While analyzing the environmental impact of complex multiproduct power systems, such as carbon emissions, the matrix method can be used to easily derive the environmental impact of each final product. We could verify the efficacy of the matrix method in accurately deriving that of an example model power system.展开更多
文摘China's energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions: 1) China's gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2) coal's share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3) non-fossil energy's share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4) through 2030, China's GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5) the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6) the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China's electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China's energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.
基金funded by 2011 the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Program of Education Ministry of P.R.China (Grant No.11YJA790229)
文摘In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China's entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China's total exports value because China's carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.
基金the National Social Science Fund of China:"Comparison and Coping Strategies of China's Carbon Emission Reduction Responsibility under Different Carbon Emission Responsibility Principles":[Grant Number 15BGJ054]the Humanities and Social Science Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China:"Research on the Calculations and Countermeasures of China's Foreign Trade Embodied Carbon Emission":[Grant Number13YJAZH122]
文摘This study uses an input-output model presenting the embodied carbon emission in the importexport procedure, as well as the responsibility allocation between China's 35 sectors and 7 main trade partners from 1995 to 2011. Results indicate that the amount of carbon emissions in China's industrial sectors is immense and that the industrial sectors are in serious imbalance. Such imbalance exists mainly in textiles, basic and fabricated metal, electrical and optical equipment,and machinery, among others. Based on the consumer-responsibility principle, the responsibility of 29 departments is reduced. Correspondingly, foreign sectors become more responsible.America, as China's largest trading partner, should account for most of the total responsibility,followed by developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany.
文摘An electricity generation planning model of the six major Chinese power grids was developed based on the General Algebraic Modeling System to evaluate and analyze the CDM (clean development mechanism), including consideration of the environmental co-benefits of reductions in air pollutants (SO~, NO~ and particulate matter) achieved by advanced electricity generation technologies incorporating CCS (carbon capture and storage). An objective function was developed that included revenue from sales of electric power, total system cost, the cost of CO2 transport and storage, and emissions reduction co-benefits for SOx, NO~, and particulate matter. The objective function was minimized using an optimization model. We also developed a method for evaluating and analyzing the potential for transferring advanced power generation technologies into the Chinese power system through the CDM. We found that: (1) thermal power generation is predominant in the Chinese electricity system and will remain so for a long time; (2) advanced thermal plants are being installed as a result of the CDM, which contribute to decreasing emissions of CO2 and other air pollutants; and (3) CCS projects have significant potential to reduce substantial and sustained CO2 emissions from the Chinese power and industrial sectors.
文摘We verified that the matrix method, a process analysis method used mainly for life cycle inventory analysis, has several advantages in the analysis of power systems, which have recently become more complex to enhance efficiency and to reduce C02 emissions. While designing a conceptual thermodynamic model of a complex power system, the matrix method provides a definite procedure and facilitates calculations, even if there is a recttrsive loop between the upstream and downstream processes. Similarly, in the case of partial modification to the constructed model, the matrix method can potentially reduce the time and effort required to calculate the thermodynamic balances, even if the constructed model is designed by others. In this study, we obtained mass flow and energy balances of example model power systems by the matrix method from the common thermodynamic conditions including temperatures and pressures which are set on the basis of an existing industrial steam power system. While analyzing the environmental impact of complex multiproduct power systems, such as carbon emissions, the matrix method can be used to easily derive the environmental impact of each final product. We could verify the efficacy of the matrix method in accurately deriving that of an example model power system.