基于FLUS-InVEST模型的北部湾城市群生态空间碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素研究

[目的]探究未来湾区城市群生态空间变化对碳汇的影响,找出变化背后的主要驱动因素,为城市群制定未来生态空间发展方向与策略提供参考,促进陆海新通道的科学开发。[方法]以北部湾城市群为例,基于2010,2015与2020年土地利用数据,使用GeoSOS-FLUS模型预测生态优先、耕地优先及城镇优先3种不同预设情境下2035年的北部湾城市群生态空间土地利用格局,使用InVEST模型对2020—2035年各情景下生态空间碳汇变化情况进行分析,使用地理加权回归找出影响土地碳汇变化的主要驱动因素。[结果]生态优先导向下2020—2035年北部湾城市群碳储量有所增加;城镇优先导向下碳储量降低较多,达到3.12×10^(6) t。坡度、人口密度和高程是城市群生态空间碳汇格局最重要的影响因素,城镇空间扩张是变化的主因。生态优先情景下,生态空间的土地将有所增加。[结论]生态优先导向能兼顾城镇发展与生态空间的环境保护需求,城镇优先导向和农业优先导向会大幅降低碳汇。另外政策措施也需尽早制定以抑制城镇空间扩张。

SYSTEM SIMULATION AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CHINESE CARBON SEQUESTRATION MARKET

This study builds a simulation of Chinese carbon sequestration market(CSM) based on the Swarm platform and complex adaptive system(CAS) theory.The simulation results represent that the total assets and profits of the carbon sequestration project(CSP) buyer and seller are steadily on the increase in the carbon trading maxket.The market regulatory efficiency is determined by the market investment and the improvement of regulation policy.Furthermore,the real sample simulation of Sichuan Daduhe Forest CSP demonstrates that the profit of CSP traded in the CSM is higher than the profit from the transactions of outside exchange.It implies that establishing CSM is an effective way to improve the CSP business for investors and a positive action to response to global warming as well.Finally,this study applies an Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(AHPFCE) approach to evaluate the reliability of CSM simulation.It concludes that the CSM simulation is "more creditable",which indicates that the CSM simulation results can be used as a proxy to observe the market uncertainties.