农村居民生育行为的社会互动效应研究

现实中人的非独立性导致生育行为受内生因素与外部性共同影响,并且这种外部性在传统观念根深蒂固的农村社会更显著。本文探究人口流动常态化背景下,农村居民生育行为是否具有外部性,并使用2017年《中国流动人口动态监测调查》中的农村样本,根据调查员编码定义农村居民的参照群体,选取县级生育率水平作为工具变量,系统研究农村居民生育行为的社会互动效应。基准回归分析发现,群体生育率水平提高1单位,农村居民生育行为的发生概率提高23.9%。作用机制分析发现,社会互动效应通过提高生育偏好与增加生育信息对农村居民生育行为产生积极影响。异质性分析发现,农村居民规范认可程度越高、受教育水平越高,其生育行为的社会互动效应越显著。本文为提高生育支持政策的效率提供参考,根据农村居民生育行为的社会互动效应制定生育支持政策,提高农村生育率,进而扭转整体生育率趋势。

夫妻延迟退休意愿的社会互动效应研究

“十四五”规划明确提出实施渐进式延迟退休。基于社会互动理论,构建联立方程组并利用中国健康与养老追踪调查2018年数据,实证研究了夫妻延迟退休意愿的社会互动效应及其异质性。研究结果表明,夫妻延迟退休意愿存在显著的正向社会互动效应;女性延迟退休意愿受配偶影响更显著。在配偶社会互动效应影响下,65岁和60岁分别是丈夫和妻子意愿延迟退休的年龄上限。异质性分析结果还表明,受教育程度越高者和政府机关、事业单位工作人员延迟退休意愿受配偶社会互动效应的影响更大。据此,延迟退休改革方案应借助社会互动效应获得更多支持,应参考男女意愿延迟退休的年龄上限,合理规划政策的实施幅度。

Enhancing Cooperation in N-Person Social Dilemma Game： Interactive Effects of Limitation and Cost for Job Change and Incentive on Cooperation

The non-cooperative action in the social dilemma situation might, at the worst case, lead to violation of social rules （or regulations）. A repetitive N-person social dilemma game that permit the participants to change jobs between organizations （groups） and mutually interact between groups was carried out to investigate how ＂limitation for job change＂, ＂cost for job change＂, and ＂incentive （enhancement of personal career）＂ affected the cooperation. The cost for job change effectively worked for the enhancement of cooperation. When the cost for job change was not necessary, the cooperative behavior was enhanced. When the cost for job change was necessary, it tended that a non-cooperative action was selected. When the limitation and the cost for job change were imposed, and the participants were provided with the incentive for cooperation, the cooperation rate was the highest. A significant interaction between the incentive condition （enhancement of personal career） and the limitation for job change was also clarified.