京津冀城市群社会环境承载力预测研究——基于可能—满意度分析法

以北京市、天津市以及河北省全部11个地级城市的社会环境承载力作为研究对象,从客观供给与主观需求两个层面出发,选取可能度—满意度多目标决策方法,构建京津冀城市群社会环境承载力综合指标体系,并以2012—2014年的历史数据为基础,对京津冀城市群的社会环境承载力进行预测研究。分析表明,京津冀城市群社会环境承载力预测指数存在差异,北京最高、天津其次,河北省最低。在较高的可能—满意度水平下,京津冀城市群需要进一步提高公共服务设施与社会保障等因素的发展水平,通过城市群公共服务的协同发展,提升该区域城市群的社会环境综合承载力水平。

呼包鄂城市群环境承载力研究

呼包鄂城市群以经济的快速发展受到人们的关注。然而,环境是否能够承载经济的持续发展是一个更加值得关注的问题。本文通过建立科学合理的指标体系,采用指数评价法对呼包鄂城市群进行定量分析与评价。结果显示,呼包鄂城市群的环境承载力总体处于中等水平,该区域的总体环境可以承受由于人类经济生活所带来的压力。其中,资源环境与经济环境的承载力较高,而社会环境的承载力较低。

Comprehensive Measurement for Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment of City Clusters in Central China

Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has important practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy, sustainable and stable development of this region. According to their influencing factors and reciprocity mechanism, using system dynamics approaches, this paper built a SD model for measuring the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the city clusters in the central China, and through setting different development models, the comprehensive measurement analysis on the carrying capacity was carried out. The results show that the model of promoting socio-economic development under the protection of resources and environment is the optimal model for promoting the harmony development of resources, environment, society and economy in the city clusters. According to this model, the optimum population scale of the city clusters in 2020 is 42.80×106 persons, and the moderate economic development scale is 22.055×1012 yuan (RMB). In 1996-2020, the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the city clusters took on obvious phase-change characteristics. During the studied period, it is basically at the initial development stage, and will come through the development process from slow development to speedup development.

Evaluation and Analysis of Provincial Differences in Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity in China

Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment carrying capacity based on four aspects of carrying capacity(i.e., water resources, land resources, the environment, and ecosystems) by using a square deviation decision-making method, and on the basis of above effort evaluates the resources and environment carrying capacity across 31 provincial regions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions of China). In addition, this paper evaluates the current state of socio-economic development, and analyzes the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure. The results showed that distinct spatial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure across provincial regions. Resources and environment pressure is affected by both comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development. Regions subjected to lower degrees of resources and environment pressure will be restricted by resources and environmental problems through future courses of development owing to excessively low carrying capacities. By contrast, regions with higher comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity will be subjected to excessively high levels of resources and environment pressure because of rapid socio-economic development. Both of resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure must therefore be considered in the allocation of country-binding targets to provincial regions.

Measuring coordination of economy-society and resource-environment based on major function oriented zoning: a case study of Pearl River Delta

A reasonable coordination degree assessment of the social-economic development level and the resource-environment quality level are essential to ident the key factory of the development, and vital to determine the appropriate development strategy and achieve sustainable development. The major function oriented zoning plays a role in spatial coordination mainly＇ by spatial guidance and restriction, so. the proposal of major function oriented zoning gives a new train of thought to generate a coordination evaluation of economy-society and the resource-environment system, From the view of major function oriented zoning that considers resource environmental bearing capacity, existing development density and development potential, this paper constructs an index system and model of coordination evahtation with a case study on Pearl River Delta. The results have shown： （I） It can reveal the conflicts of economic-social development and resource-environment quality to ac- curately consider resource environmental bearing capacity, existing development densio~ and development po- tential; （2） The coordination degree between social-economy system and resource-environment system in Pearl River Delta continued to decline in the past 10 years. The spatial extent of coordination evoh,es.from coordina- tion in the whole Pearl River Delta to imbalance in the core areas, and at present, the uncoordinated areas have already diffused from core areas to the outlying regions： （3） Most regions of the Pearl River Delta are in uncoordinated condition When considering the coordination degree of economic-social development and resollrceenvironment quality, not as coordinated as some scholars considered.

The concept, connotation and method of representation of watershed water environment carrying capacity （WWECC）

Based on the relationship between water environment system and human society, water environment carrying capacity （WECC） probes into supporting ability of complex water environment system to the human society. Recent years, due to the shortage of water resources and serious water pollution in several watersheds in China, the research of watershed water environment carrying capacity （WWECC） becomes very important. The conception, connotation and method of representation of WWECC are discussed deeply in this paper. It shows that WWECC is a kind of index that instructs whether the water environment system in watershed can continue to support the development of social economy and ecology, it is dimensionless number.