Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has important practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy, sustainable and stable development of this reg...Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has important practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy, sustainable and stable development of this region. According to their influencing factors and reciprocity mechanism, using system dynamics approaches, this paper built a SD model for measuring the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the city clusters in the central China, and through setting different development models, the comprehensive measurement analysis on the carrying capacity was carried out. The results show that the model of promoting socio-economic development under the protection of resources and environment is the optimal model for promoting the harmony development of resources, environment, society and economy in the city clusters. According to this model, the optimum population scale of the city clusters in 2020 is 42.80×106 persons, and the moderate economic development scale is 22.055×1012 yuan (RMB). In 1996-2020, the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the city clusters took on obvious phase-change characteristics. During the studied period, it is basically at the initial development stage, and will come through the development process from slow development to speedup development.展开更多
Shandong Peninsula,as a more developed region in Shandong Province even the east coast of China,is facing challenges from resources and environment pressures.This paper tried to track and assess the coordination statu...Shandong Peninsula,as a more developed region in Shandong Province even the east coast of China,is facing challenges from resources and environment pressures.This paper tried to track and assess the coordination status and the dynamic between resource-environment and economy-society systems in Shandong Peninsula during 2001-2008 in order to provide decision support for regional sustainability.An appraisal index system was built including five aspects of harmony degree(A),sustainability degree(B),opening degree(C),stability degree(D) and controllability degree(E).The results showed that:1) The coordination level of resource-environment and economy-society in Shandong Peninsula has continuously grown,and it has undergone three stages:no coordinated degree(2001-2002),weak coordinated degree(2003-2006) and basically coordinated degree(2007-2008).2) Five indexes of criterion hierarchy also increased overall,but each index showed different trends.Harmony degree,sustainability degree and opening degree rose all the time,while stability degree and controllability degree alternately rose and fell.The improvement of controllability degree was the slowest.3) The aggravating trend of environmental pollution was slowing down.The economic growth was driven by industrial growth and urbanization typically and investment was still the main force to pull the regional economic growth.At the same time,technology and education were becoming more and more important for economic growth.The level of foreign capital utility declined and the geographical advantage of Shandong Peninsula was exerted.Meanwhile some characteristics of knowledge economy were presenting.Water resources become the main constraint factor of fast development in Shandong Peninsula.It is necessary to further strengthen the coordination ability of government on regional sustainable development.展开更多
Water is one of the basic materials in human existence and the development of society and economy. Its sustainable management has always been an eternal subject for the management of human society and also a complex s...Water is one of the basic materials in human existence and the development of society and economy. Its sustainable management has always been an eternal subject for the management of human society and also a complex systemic problem. How to take advantages of water has been a big event in such an agricultural country like China. As economically developed areas, coastal areas are facing water shortage problems due to the rapid economic and social development and inappropriate and unsustainable water management measures. To fully understand and study such problems faced by the coastal areas needs a systematic and integrated framework to consider the various social-economic, natural and engineering factors that affect the sustainable development of water in those areas. The SD （system dynamics） methodology, which is an approach that has been successfully used in solving complex systematic problems in general, and in solving water management problems in particular for more than 50 years, was applied to a typical coastal area, Longkou City in Shandong Province of China, to study and analyze the future sustainable water management of this city. Then the quantitative modeling and analysis of the water development were carried out through scenario analysis. Four different scenarios （business as usual, economic development, water resources protection, and comprehensive） were designed by changing the values of decision-making variables. The total water demand in 2030 of these four scenarios are 0.455 billion m3, 0.793 billion m3, 0.412 billion m3 and 0.487 billion m3, respectively; the corresponding water deficit of these scenarios are 0.292 billion m3, 0.634 billion m3, 0.254 billion m3 and 0.329 billion m3, respectively. The comparison results indicated that the comprehensive scenario is the optimal one among these designed scenarios. To totally solve the water shortage problem with the economy developed in Longkou City needs to take more effective measures to reduce water consumption and improve water conservation technologies.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40971101)Major Project of 11th Five-Year Scientific and Technological Support Plan of China (No. 2006BAJ14B03)
文摘Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has important practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy, sustainable and stable development of this region. According to their influencing factors and reciprocity mechanism, using system dynamics approaches, this paper built a SD model for measuring the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the city clusters in the central China, and through setting different development models, the comprehensive measurement analysis on the carrying capacity was carried out. The results show that the model of promoting socio-economic development under the protection of resources and environment is the optimal model for promoting the harmony development of resources, environment, society and economy in the city clusters. According to this model, the optimum population scale of the city clusters in 2020 is 42.80×106 persons, and the moderate economic development scale is 22.055×1012 yuan (RMB). In 1996-2020, the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the city clusters took on obvious phase-change characteristics. During the studied period, it is basically at the initial development stage, and will come through the development process from slow development to speedup development.
基金National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No.03CJL008)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.Y2007E04)
文摘Shandong Peninsula,as a more developed region in Shandong Province even the east coast of China,is facing challenges from resources and environment pressures.This paper tried to track and assess the coordination status and the dynamic between resource-environment and economy-society systems in Shandong Peninsula during 2001-2008 in order to provide decision support for regional sustainability.An appraisal index system was built including five aspects of harmony degree(A),sustainability degree(B),opening degree(C),stability degree(D) and controllability degree(E).The results showed that:1) The coordination level of resource-environment and economy-society in Shandong Peninsula has continuously grown,and it has undergone three stages:no coordinated degree(2001-2002),weak coordinated degree(2003-2006) and basically coordinated degree(2007-2008).2) Five indexes of criterion hierarchy also increased overall,but each index showed different trends.Harmony degree,sustainability degree and opening degree rose all the time,while stability degree and controllability degree alternately rose and fell.The improvement of controllability degree was the slowest.3) The aggravating trend of environmental pollution was slowing down.The economic growth was driven by industrial growth and urbanization typically and investment was still the main force to pull the regional economic growth.At the same time,technology and education were becoming more and more important for economic growth.The level of foreign capital utility declined and the geographical advantage of Shandong Peninsula was exerted.Meanwhile some characteristics of knowledge economy were presenting.Water resources become the main constraint factor of fast development in Shandong Peninsula.It is necessary to further strengthen the coordination ability of government on regional sustainable development.
文摘Water is one of the basic materials in human existence and the development of society and economy. Its sustainable management has always been an eternal subject for the management of human society and also a complex systemic problem. How to take advantages of water has been a big event in such an agricultural country like China. As economically developed areas, coastal areas are facing water shortage problems due to the rapid economic and social development and inappropriate and unsustainable water management measures. To fully understand and study such problems faced by the coastal areas needs a systematic and integrated framework to consider the various social-economic, natural and engineering factors that affect the sustainable development of water in those areas. The SD （system dynamics） methodology, which is an approach that has been successfully used in solving complex systematic problems in general, and in solving water management problems in particular for more than 50 years, was applied to a typical coastal area, Longkou City in Shandong Province of China, to study and analyze the future sustainable water management of this city. Then the quantitative modeling and analysis of the water development were carried out through scenario analysis. Four different scenarios （business as usual, economic development, water resources protection, and comprehensive） were designed by changing the values of decision-making variables. The total water demand in 2030 of these four scenarios are 0.455 billion m3, 0.793 billion m3, 0.412 billion m3 and 0.487 billion m3, respectively; the corresponding water deficit of these scenarios are 0.292 billion m3, 0.634 billion m3, 0.254 billion m3 and 0.329 billion m3, respectively. The comparison results indicated that the comprehensive scenario is the optimal one among these designed scenarios. To totally solve the water shortage problem with the economy developed in Longkou City needs to take more effective measures to reduce water consumption and improve water conservation technologies.
