Analysis on the Change of Vegetation Cover and Its Prediction Method——A Case Study in Eastern Jilin

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation coverage changes of the study area in different time period under the GIS platform, with the aim to reveal the spatial distribution rules of the vegetation cover in Eastern Jilin Province during the recent 10 years. The Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were used to predict the vegetation cover change trend in Eastern Jilin Province. [Result] The vegetation cover increased a little, but staying stable in general. The regions with great changes were mainly around the lake and river. The prediction results of Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were consistent with the observed measurement. [Conclusion] This study provided referential basis for the effective protection of the vegetation coverage in mountainous forest, and important reference value for the scientific decision-making on the forest construction planning in Jilin Province as well as in China and sustainable development of social economy.

Waveguide Optimization for a 9.0μm GaAs-Based Quantum Cascade Laser

Improved waveguide designs for 9.0μm GaAs-based quantum cascade laser （QCL） structures are presented. Modal losses and confinement factors are calculated for TM modes with the transfer matrix method （TMM） and effective index method （EIM）. The thicknesses of the cladding layer and waveguide layer, the ridge-width, and the cavity length are all taken into account. Appropriate thicknesses of epilayers are given with lower threshold gain and more economical material growth time.

Changes of Wetland Landscape Pattern in New Coastal District of Tianjin City

With the wetland landscape in New Coastal District of Tianjin City as the chief study objective and based on the remote sensing and non-remote sensing data of ETM/TM with 1999-2007 as the time scale and the new administrative region of New Coastal District as the space (scale) scope, this paper conducted the study on the landscape pattern change. The results showed that the natural wetland and agricultural land tended to decrease, while the saltern, maricultural areas and construction land increased apparently. The overall landscape shape tended to develop in simplification and regulation and with the development of population and social economy, human’s intervention to the landscape was getting improved.

马可夫连锁模型对信用风险商品之评价

本研究的目的在于扩展1arrow等（1997）的模型，把随机无违约风险利率和随机信用差异纳入这个模型。信用差异随机程序是经由风险溢价调整项的随机程序来认定的，而非按大家所熟知某些动态过程的假设。除了信用评级的改变之外，这个模型也把每一个信用评级的随机信用差异列入计算，因此，这个模型能够考虑到构成信用差异曲线的连续或跳跃的成份。在这个模型中，就算信用评级维持不变，信用差异还是可以改变的。这个模型有四个特色：第一，信用差异和约当移转矩阵（包括风险中立违约机率）是由当前的信用评级和产生随机过程的其它变量所决定的。第二，在无套利机会的状态下，结合远期利率的程序和信用差异的间接形式可以得到远期利率程序中风险中立变动项的回归表示和违约风险结构。此外，这个模型可以帮助各种不同的信用衍生商品定价，也可以帮助我们利用信用评级的改变和违约的历史数据和信息。最后，这个模型可以延伸为连续的模型，把不同的风险溢价调整项包含进来。

Reflection spectra of fiber Bragg gratings in quadratic strain field

We theoretically analyze the reflection spectra of the fiber Bragg gratings in the quadratic strain field,and resolve the numerical value with transfer matrix method.When the value of pressure is changed,we can obtain diverse reflection spectra of the fiber Bragg gratings,which is in good accordance with the experimental results.

Analysis of the flexural vibration of ship's tail shaft by transfer matrix method

A ship's tail shaft has serious flexural vibration due to the cantilevered nature of the propeller's blades.Analysis of the nature frequency of flexural vibration is vital to be able to provide effective shock absorption for a ship's tail shaft.A mathematic model of tail shaft flexural vibrations was built using the transfer matrix method.The nature frequency of flexural vibration for an electrically propelled ship's tail shaft was then analyzed,and an effective method for calculating it was proposed:a genetic algorithm(GA),which calculates the nature frequency of vibration of a system.Sample calculations,with comparisons by the Prohl method under conditions bearing isotropic support,showed this method to be practical.It should have significant impact on engineering design theory.

3D Dynamic Response of Layered Unsaturated Soils to Harmonic Loads

Considering compression of solid grain and pore fluids,viscous-coupling interactions and inertial force of fluids,dynamic governing equations for unsaturated soils are established by adopting an exact constitutive formula of saturation.These equations are highly versatile and completely compatible with Biot's wave equations for the special case of fully saturated soils.The governing equations in Cartesian coordinates are firstly transformed into a group of state differential equations by introducing the state vector.Then the transfer matrix for layered media are derived by means of a double Fourier transform.Using the transfer matrix followed by boundary and continuity conditions between strata,solutions of steady-state dynamic response for multi-layered unsaturated soils are obtained.Numerical examples show that the echoes generated by boundary and stratum interfaces make the displacement amplitude of the ground surface fluctuate with distance;the relative position of soft and hard strata has a significant influence on displacement.

Attenuation of wave propagation in a novel periodic structure

A novel periodic mount was presented. A theoretical model was developed to describe the dynamics of wave propagation in the novel periodic mount. The model was derived using Hamilton's energy conservation principle. The characteristics of wave propagation in unit cell were analyzed by transfer matrix formulation. Numerical examples were given to illustrate the effectiveness of the periodic mount. The experiments were carried out to identify the predications of the theoretical model. The obtained results show that the experimental results coincide with the prediction of theoretical model. No pass bands appear in the overall frequency range measured when waves propagate in the longitude direction of the periodic mount. These dramatic results demonstrate its potential as an excellent mount in attenuating and isolating vibration transmission.

An Improved Markov Chain Model Based on Autocorrelation and Entropy Techniques and Its Application to State Prediction of Water Resources

According to the relationships among state transition probability matrixes with different step lengths, an improved Markov chain model based on autocorrelation and entropy techniques was introduced. In the improved Markov chain model, the state transition probability matrixes can be adjusted. The steps of the historical state of the event, which was significantly related to the future state of the event, were determined by the autocorrelation technique, and the impact weights of the event historical state on the event future state were determined by the entropy technique. The presented model was applied to predicting annual precipitation and annual runoff states, showing that the improved model is of higher precision than those existing Markov chain models, and the determination of the state transition probability matrixes and the weights is more reasonable. The physical concepts of the improved model are distinct, and its computation process is simple and direct, thus, the presented model is sufficiently general to be applicable to the prediction problems in hydrology and water resources.

Forecasting and optimal probabilistic scheduling of surplus gas systems in iron and steel industry

To make full use of the gas resource, stabilize the pipe network pressure, and obtain higher economic benefits in the iron and steel industry, the surplus gas prediction and scheduling models were proposed. Before applying the forecasting techniques, a support vector classifier was first used to classify the data, and then the filtering was used to create separate trend and volatility sequences. After forecasting, the Markov chain transition probability matrix was introduced to adjust the residual. Simulation results using surplus gas data from an iron and steel enterprise demonstrate that the constructed SVC-HP-ENN-LSSVM-MC prediction model prediction is accurate, and that the classification accuracy is high under different conditions. Based on this, the scheduling model was constructed for surplus gas operating, and it has been used to investigate the comprehensive measures for managing the operational probabilistic risk and optimize the economic benefit at various working conditions and implementations. It has extended the concepts of traditional surplus gas dispatching systems, and provides a method for enterprises to determine optimal schedules.

Torsional oscillations of a rigid disc bonded to multilayered poroelastic medium

This paper deals mainly with the dynamic response of a rigid disc bonded to the surface of a layered poroelastic half-space. The disc is subjected to time-harmonic torsional moment loadings. The half space under consideration consists of a number of layers with different thickness and material properties. Hankel transform techniques and transferring matrix method are used to solve the governing equations. The continuity of the displacement and stress fields between different layers enabled derivation of closed-form solutions in the transform domain. On the assumption that the contact between the disc and the half space is perfectly bonded, this dynamic mixed boundary-value problem can be reduced to dual integral equations, which are further reduced to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind and solved by numerical procedures. Selected numerical results for the dynamic impedance and displacement amplitude of the disc resting on different saturated models are presented to show the influence of the material and geometrical properties of both the saturated soil-foundation system and the nature of the load acting on it. The conclusions obtained can serve as guidelines for practical engineering.

Extended State to Localization in Random Aperiodic Chains

The electronic states in Thus-Morse chain （TMC） and generalized Fibonacci chain （GFC） are studied by solving eigenequation and using transfer matrix method. Two model Hamiltonians are studied. One contains the nearest neighbor （n.n.） hopping terms only and the other has additionally next nearest neighbor （n.n.n.） hopping terms. Based on the transfer matrix method, a criterion of transition from the extended to the localized states is suggested for CFC and TMC. The numerical calculation shows the existence of both extended and localized states in pure aperiodic system. A random potential is introduced to the diagonal term of the Hamiltonian and then the extended states are always changed to be localized. The exponents related to the localization length as a function of randomness are calculated. For different kinds of aperiodic chain, the critical value of randomness for the transition from extended to the localized states are found to be zero, consistent with the case of ordinary one-dimensional systems.

Experimental and theoretical analysis of fiber Bragg gratings under Transverse Force to a Small Grating Section

Fiber Bragg grating under transverse force on a small grating section is studied by numerical simulation and experimentation. A numerical simulation based on the transfer matrix method is used to calculate the consequent changes in reflected spectrum. The reflected spectra of the FBG subjected to the transverse force split into two main peaks, and the split point shifted linearly and periodically versus the applied force. The split point is shifted in the bandwidth with the period of 11N, and the sensitivity of the split point wavelength shift versus the applied force is 0.05 nm/N in one period. The experimental results show good agreement with the simulation analysis.

Theoretical Analysis of Phase-shifted Long - period Fiber Gratings

The output characteristics of phase-shifted long-period fiber gratings (LPGs) are analyzed using transfer matrix method. The transmissions and their e nvelops of several kinds of these gratings are given. The characteristics of pha se-shifted LPGs and Bragg gratings are compared. The possible applications of ph ase-shifted LPGs are discussed.

DTMC-based Modeling and Analysis of Obstacle Ad hoc Networks

One of the main characteristics of Ad hoc networks is node mobility, which results in constantly changing in network topologies. Consequently, the ability to forecast the future status of mobility nodes plays a key role in QOS routing. We propose a random mobility model based on discretetime Markov chain, called ODM. ODM provides a mathematical framework for calculating some parameters to show the future status of mobility nodes, for instance, the state transition probability matrix of nodes, the probability that an edge is valid, the average number of valid-edges and the probability of a request packet found a valid route. Furthermore, ODM can account for obstacle environment. The state transition probability matrix of nodes can quantify the impact of obstacles. Several theorems are given and proved by using the ODM. Simulation results show that the calculated value can forecast the future status of mobility nodes.

Two-way Markov random walk transductive learning algorithm

Researchers face many class prediction challenges stemming from a small size of training data vis-a-vis a large number of unlabeled samples to be predicted. Transductive learning is proposed to utilize information about unlabeled data to estimate labels of the unlabeled data for this condition. This work presents a new transductive learning method called two-way Markov random walk(TMRW) algorithm. The algorithm uses information about labeled and unlabeled data to predict the labels of the unlabeled data by taking random walks between the labeled and unlabeled data where data points are viewed as nodes of a graph. The labeled points correlate to unlabeled points and vice versa according to a transition probability matrix. We can get the predicted labels of unlabeled samples by combining the results of the two-way walks. Finally, ensemble learning is combined with transductive learning, and Adboost.MH is taken as the study framework to improve the performance of TMRW, which is the basic learner. Experiments show that this algorithm can predict labels of unlabeled data well.

The Convergence of the Abstract Evolutionary Algorithm Based on a Special Selection Mechanism

There has been a growing interest in mathematical models to character the evolutionary algorithms. The best-known one of such models is the axiomatic model colled the abstract evolutionary algorithm. In this paper, we first introduce the definitions of the abhstract selection and evolution operators, and that of the abstract evolutionary algorithm, which describes the evolution as an abstract stochastic process composed of these two fundamental abstract operators. In particular, a kind of abstract evolutionary algorithms based on a special selection mechansim is discussed. According to the sorting for the state space, the properties of the single step transition matrix for the algorithm are anaylzed. In the end, we prove that the limit probability distribution of the Markov chains exists. The present work provides a big step toward the establishment of a unified theory of evolutionary computation.

Adsorption and Transfer Properties for Toluene and pDichlorobenzene in Dense CO_2/Silica Gel Packed Bed System by Moment Method and Time-Domain Analysis

Based on chromatographic theory, the moment method and the time-domain fitting analysis were applied to measure and evaluate the adsorption equilibrium constant and mass transfer properties (axial dispersion coefficient and effective intra-particle diffusivity) for toluene and p-dichlorobenzene on silica gel adsorbent in the subcritical and supercritical CO2. An apparatus based on supercritical fluid chromatography was established and the experiments were performed at temperatures of 298.15-318.15 K and pressures of 7.5-17.8 MPa. The two methods have been compared. The results show that for the systems studied here the moment method can give reasonable values for both adsorption equilibrium constant and mass transfer properties, but the time-domain analysis only can obtain the adsorption equilibrium constant. The dependence of adsorption equilibrium constant and mass transfer properties on temperature and pressure was investigated.

A New Method Based on Kinematics of Robots to Analyze the Kinematics of Persian Joint

This paper has been focused on investigating kinematics of Persian joint. In this study, instead of using the 3D （three dimensional） rotation matrix method as in the previous research, Persian joint is considered as a robotic mechanism, and the methods and tools are applied to present the relationship of angular displacements of input shaft and output shaft. When the angle between intersecting shafts changes from 0 degree to 135 degrees, the results show that the velocities of input shaft and output shaft are almost the same with the actual values. This study provides a new method to investigate this mechanism in detail. The obtained results not only provide the sub-parameters （the displacement of guide arms and connecting arms）, but also help to have a deeper understanding about the operation of Persian joint in order to develop the design of Persian joint in the future.

Land Cover Change Characteristics of North-South Transect in Northeast Asia from 2001 to 2012

Northeast Asia is an area with relative concentrations of resources, a complex ecological environment pattern, and a marked human-land contrast relationship. This area has significance for analyzing land cover patterns and variations for regional sustainable development among the trans-boundary areas of China, Russia, and Mongolia. In this paper, the transect analysis research tool and transfer matrix method are used to capture the regional land cover change characteristics by using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer（MODIS） datasets recorded from 2001 to 2012.The spatial distribution results show that forests have increased dramatically, cropland increased marginally, and grassland and shrubs decreased totally. The inter-annual variation, results show a steady and slowly increasing trend for grassland and shrubs, dramatic fluctuation features with an increasing trend for forest land, and zigzag wave changing characteristic for cropland. The total land use dynamic degree （TLUDD）was steady, with an overall slightly increasing trend.