长江三角洲区域农业碳补偿率空间效应与影响因素研究

基于长江三角洲区域27个市域面板数据,测算2006—2018年各市农业碳补偿率,并在利用Moran’s I研究碳补偿率空间分布情况基础上,构建Durbin空间模型分析探讨空间溢出效应与影响因素。研究发现:(1)长江三角洲区域农业碳补偿率具有区域集聚特征,最高值分布逐步由西翼转变为东西两翼,较高值主要位于南部浙江省和西部安徽省,较低值主要分布靠北的上海市和江苏省。(2)区域间农业碳吸收水平呈相互促进、协同提升演变特征,正向溢出效应较为明显,邻近地区农业碳补偿率每提高1%,则本地农业碳补偿率相应上升0.441%,但随时间的推移,邻近地区彼此关联度逐渐有所减弱(3)绿化程度、种植业优化结构的固碳作用最明显,而化肥强度、农药强度和畜禽养殖优化结构是农业碳补偿率提升最重要抑制要素。建议长三角洲区域各市加强协同联动,调节控制关键因素,针对性探索多元减排增汇举措。

进气参数对HCCI汽油机缸内残余废气分布的影响

在采用全可变气门机构的汽油HCCI试验机上,固定排气门升程和相位,选取了4组不同的进气门升程与相位组合,并应用Simpack软件对气体流动进行计算,同时还引入了残余废气的空间分布率和不均匀度的概念,分析了进气门相位和升程对缸内残余废气分布的影响。结果表明:改变进气门的开启定时和升程会对缸内残余废气的分布造成一定的影响,进气门开启定时对缸内残余废气不均匀度的影响比进气门开启升程对其的影响要大;进气门开启时刻越早,上止点附近残余废气不均匀度越小。

一维水分运移模型水力参数敏感性分析

利用数值模拟方法模拟灌溉水入渗补给地下水的过程中,模型参数的不确定性是影响包气带水分运移的关键因素。因此,为了定量分析水力参数的不确性对剖面含水率空间分布的影响。基于新疆伊犁霍城县原位试验场灌溉实验,以剖面含水率为研究对象,运用HYDRUS软件建立一维非饱和数值模型,利用局部分析方法,研究水力参数空间不确定性对剖面含水率的影响,并对水力参数的敏感指数进行分析与对比。研究表明:非均质岩层中,细颗粒中θs和n对剖面含水率影响最大,在粗颗粒中,θr对剖面含水率影响最大。

加速器驱动次临界反应堆次临界度测量方法研究

以IAEA ADS基准题和日本京都大学KUCA实验装置为对象,对作者提出的次临界度测量方法[1]进行了更广泛的可行性验证。结果表明:对于局部区域功率变化引起的小扰动,通过改进表征中子注量率空间分布的特征参数,该方法仍然具有高的精度;而对于控制棒插入引起的大扰动,通过引入修正因子的方法,也仍然能准确测量次临界度。

Complex patterns of precipitation and extreme events during 1951-2011 in Sichuan Basin, Southwestern China

Sichuan Basin is located in southwestern China and affected by a complex water vapor （WV） sources. Here, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and extreme events are investigated by six indices of World Meteorology Organization Commission, including annual precipitation total （AP）, maximum daily precipitation （Maxld）, intensity of rainfall over 1 mm/d （IR1）, maximum and mean consecutive dry days （Max CDD, Mean CDD） and coefficient of variance. Based on 24 daily precipitation time series from 1951 to 2o11, Mann-Kendall test is employed to quantify the significant level of these indices, from which the classification of precipitation change and its spatial patterns are obtained. Meanwhile, the probability distributions of these indices are identified by L-moment analysis and the Goodness-of-fit test, and the corresponding values are calculated by theoretical model at different return periods. The results reveal that the western basin displays normal drought： less AP and precipitation intensity while longer drought. The southern basin shows normal increase： larger AP and precipitation intensity but shorter CDD. However, in hilly region of the central basin and the transition zone between basin and mountains, precipitation changes abnormally： increasing both drought （one or both of Mean CDD and MaxCDD） and precipitation intensity （one or both of Maxld and trend of AP is. Probability IR1） no matter what the distribution models also demonstrate the complex patterns： a negative correlation between Maxld and Max CDD in the west （R2≥0.61） while a positive correlation in the east （R2≥0.41） at all return periods. These patterns are induced by the changes in WV sources and the layout of local terrain. The increase of WV in summer and decrease in spring leads to the heavier rainfall and longer drought respectively. The large heat island effect of the basin contributes to a lower temperature in transition zones and more precipitation in the downwind area. These results are helpful in reevaluating the risk regionally and making better decisions on water resources management and disaster prevention.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY OVER SOUTH CHINA IN THE LAST 50 YEARS

This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.

Variation of Thornthwaite Moisture Index in Hengduan Mountains, China

The Thornthwaite moisture index, an index of the supply of water （precipitation） in an area relative to the climatic demand for water （potential evapotranspiration）, was used to examine the spatial and temporal variation of drought and to verify the influence of environmental factors on the drought in the Hengduan Mountains, China. Results indicate that the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Hengduan Mountains had been increasing since 1960 with a rate of 0.1938/yr. Annual Thomthwaite moisture index in Hengduan Mountains was between -97.47 and 67.43 and the spatial heterogeneity was obvious in different seasons. Thomthwaite moisture index was high in the north and low in the south, and the monsoon rainfall had a significant impact on its spatial distribution. The tendency rate of Thomthwaite moisture index variation varied in different seasons, and the increasing trends in spring were greater than that in summer and autumn. However, the Thomthwaite moisture index decreased in winter. Thomthwaite moisture index increased greatly in the north and there was a small growth in the south of Hengduan Mountains. The increase of precipitation and decrease of evaporation lead to the increase of Thomthwaite moisture index. Thornthwaite moisture index has strong correlation with vegetation coverage. It can be seen that the correlation between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and Thomthwaite moisture index was positive in spring and summer, but negative in autumn and winter. Correlation between Thornthwaite moisture index and relative soil relative moisture content was positive in spring, summer and autumn, but negative in winter. The typical mountainous terrain affect the distribu- tion of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and other meteorological factors in this region, and then affect the spatial distribution of Thomthwaite moisture index. The unique ridge-gorge terrain caused the continuity of water-heat distribution from the north to south, and the water-heat was stronger than that from the east to west part, and thus determined the spatial distribution of Thornthwaite mois- ture index. The drought in the Hengduan Mountains area is mainly due to the unstable South Asian monsoon rainfall time.

Damage Pattern Recognition of Spatially Distributed Slope Damages and Rainfall Using Optimal GIS Mesh Dimensions

Damage assessment for slopes using geographical information system(GIS) has been actively carried out by researchers working on several government organizations and research institutes in Korea. In this study, 596 slope damages were examined to identify the types of damage associated with dip angles, dip directions, and heavy rainfall resulting from typhoons in South Korea. Heavy rainfall of 100 mm to 300 mm resulted in 80% at the investigated slope damages. A GIS database was developed for highways, rainfall, soil or rock geometry, and types of damage. A grid of rainfall intensity was generated from the records of maximum daily rainfall. Contours for slope damages and heavy rainfall using optimal GIS mesh dimensions were generated to visualize damage patterns and show substantially strong correlation of rainfall with slope damages. The combination of remote sensing with the GIS pattern recognition process described in this work are being expanded for a new generation of emergency response and rapid decision support systems.

Spatial Distributions of Atmospheric Radiative Fluxes and Heating Rates over China during Summer

The latitude-altitude distributions of radiative fluxes and heating rates are investigated by utilizing CloudSat satellite data over China during summer. The Tibetan Plateau causes the downward shortwave fluxes of the lower atmosphere over central China to be smaller than the fluxes over southern and northern China by generating more clouds. The existence of a larger quantity of clouds over central China reflects a greater amount of solar radiation back into space. The vertical gradients of upward shortwave radiative fluxes in the atmosphere below 8 km are greater than those above 8 km. The latitudinal-altitude distributions of downward longwave radiative fluxes show a slantwise decreasing trend from low latitudes to high latitudes that gradually weaken in the downward direction. The upward longwave radiative fluxes also weaken in the upward direction but with larger gradients. The maximum heating rates by solar radiation and cooling rates by longwave infrared radiation are located over 28 40°N at 7 8 km mean sea level (MSL), and they are larger than the rates in the northern and southern regions. The heating and cooling rates match well both vertically and geographically.

Response of train-bridge system under intensive seismic excitation by random vibration method

Earthquake is a kind of sudden and destructive random excitation in nature.It is significant to determine the probability distribution characteristics of the corresponding dynamic indicators to ensure the safety and the stability of structures when the intensive seismic excitation,the intensity of which is larger than 7,acts in train-bridge system.Firstly,the motion equations of a two-dimensional train-bridge system under the vertical random excitation of track irregularity and the vertical seismic acceleration are established,where the train subsystem is composed of 8 mutually independent vehicle elements with 48 degrees of freedom,while the single-span simple supported bridge subsystem is composed of 102D beam elements with 20 degrees of freedom on beam and 2 large mass degrees of freedom at the support.Secondly,Monte Carlo method and pseudo excitation method are adopted to analyze the statistical parameters of the system.The power spectrum density of random excitation is used to define a series of non-stationary pseudo excitation in pseudo excitation method and the trigonometric series of random vibration history samples in Monte Carlo method,respectively solved by precise integral method and Newmark-βmethod through the inter-system iterative procedure.Finally,the results are compared with the case under the weak seismic excitation,and show that the samples of vertical acceleration response of bridge and the offload factor of train obeys the normal distribution.In a high probability,the intensive earthquakes pose a greater threat to the safety and stability of bridges and trains than the weak ones.

Effects of Temperature Gradient and Cooling Rate on the Formation of Methane Hydrates in Coarse Sand

Temperature gradient and cooling rate have an obvious effect on formation of methane hydrate. The process for formation of methane hydrate in coarse sand is monitored to tmderstand the relationship between temperature gradient and cooling rate and nucleation, growth and distribution of methane hydrate by using the electrical resistivity method. The results show that the change of resistivity can better reflect the nucleation and growth and distribution of methane hydrate. Temperature gradient promotes the nucleation, formation, and formation rate of methane hydrate. At a temperature gradient of 0.11℃/cm, the rate of methane hydrate formation and saturation reaches a maximum. Cooling rate has little effect on the methane hydrate formation process. Judging from the outcome of final spatial distribution of methane hydrate, the cooling rate has an obvious but irregular effect in coarse sand. The effect of tempera^re gradient on distribution of methane hydrate in coarse sand is less than that of cooling rate. At a temperature gradient of 0.07℃/cm, methane hydrate is distributed uniformly in the sample. If the temperature gradient is higher or lower than this value, the hydrate is enriched in the upper layer of sample.

Heterogeneous sensors data fusion method based on peak picking in probability density space

The multi-sensor multi-target localization and data fusion problem is discussed, and a new data fusion method called joint probability density matrix （JPDM） has been proposed, which can associate with and fuse measurements from spatially distributed heterogeneous sensors to produce good estimates of the targets. Based on probabilistic grids representation, the uncertainty regions of all the measurements are numerically combined in a general framework. The NP-hard multi-sensor data fusion problem has been converted to a peak picking problem in the grids map. Unlike most of the existing data fusion methods, the JPDM method does not need association processing, and will not lead to combinatorial explosion. Its convergence to the CRB with a diminishing grid size has been proved. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

Some Fixed Point Theorems on Nonarchimedean Menger Probabilistic Metrie Space

In this paper,we have given a fixed point theorem for mapping sequence and mapping pair on nonarchimedean Mengen Probabilistic Metric space.A special case of its inference is an extension of results of reference [5-6].

Antiretroviral Drug Distribution Routing System in Limpopo Province of South Africa

This study was concerned with developing an antiretroviral drug distribution routing system with a goal of improving fleet utilization whilst reducing delivery costs. The system would enhance ARV drug delivery satisfaction of patients staying in the Limpopo province of South Africa. A VRP mathematical programming problem was formulated and the Savings Based as well as the Sequential Insertion algorithm was used to solve the problem. A mini program was then developed in Visual Basic.Net software that speeded up the vehicle route determination heuristics. This computer based vehicle routing system gave a total travelled distance of 1302.94 km and a space utilization of 93% as compared to the pigeonhole system which had a total travelled distance of 2874.2 km and space utilization of 86% for the demand of 5384 ARV drug patients. Therefore, the mathematical programming approach is more cost effective and efficient thereby enhancing delivery satisfaction to ARV drug patients in the province.

基于无人机摄影测量的地形变化检测方法与小流域输沙模型研究

流域输沙过程是地貌学和地表动力学的重要研究内容,但传统的输沙过程监测方法仅能得到某个区域的总输沙率,无法推算其空间分布。论文以黄土高原绥德县窑家湾小流域为例,利用无人机摄影测量技术得到其2006年和2019年2期数字高程模型(DEM)并计算地形变化量;然后,根据质量守恒原理和多流向算法建立泥沙在空间上的输送模型,进而计算小流域输沙率的空间分布。实验结果表明,该模型能有效模拟泥沙在空间上的输送情况,输沙率出现质量不守恒的区域面积占比小于4%,且不守恒区域多为人类活动影响区。同时,论文讨论了DEM的选择和不同地形变化检测水平对模型结果的影响。当使用第一期DEM进行泥沙搬运路径推算时,质量不守恒区域的面积显著降低。使用误差空间分布图进行地形变化检测得到的输沙率结果鲁棒性更强。使用中误差进行地形检测得到的结果在不同置信度下变化较大。基于无人机地形变化检测的空间输沙模型能方便、快捷地提供详尽的输沙率空间分布,为地表过程研究带来了新的机遇。

Projected impacts of climate change on protected birds and nature reserves in China

Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodi- versity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, potential influence of climate change on Chinese protected birds is rarely studied. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on 108 protected bird species and nature reserves using species distribution modeling at a relatively fine spatial resolution （1 km） for the first time. We found that a large proportion of protected species would have potential suitable habitat shrink and northward range shift by 77-90 km in response to projected future climate change in 2080. Southeastern China would suffer from losing climate suitability, whereas the climate conditions in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northeastern China were projected to become suitable for more protected species. On average, each protected area in decline of suitable climate for China would experience a 3-4 species by 2080. Cli- mate change will modify which species each protected area will be suitable for. Our results showed that the risk of extinction for Chinese protected birds would be high, even in the moderate climate change scenario. These findings indicate that the management and design of nature reserves in China must take climate change into consideration.

Altered relationship between thickness and intrinsic activity amplitude in generalized tonic–clonic seizures

A thinner cortex has higher potential for binding GABA receptor A which is associated with larger amplitudes of intrinsic brain activity(i BA). However, the relationship between cortical thickness and i BA is unknown in intact and epileptic brains. To this end, we investigated the relationship between cortical thickness measured by highresolution MRI and surface-based i BA derived from resting-state functional MRI in normal controls(n = 82) andpatients with generalized tonic–clonic seizures(GTCS)only(n = 82). We demonstrated that the spatial distribution of cortical thickness negatively correlated with surface-based i BA amplitude at both whole-brain and within independent brain functional networks. In GTCS patients,spatial coupling between thickness and i BA amplitude decreased in the default mode, dorsal attention, and somatomotor networks. In addition, the vertex-wise acrosssubject thickness–i BA amplitude correspondence altered in the frontal and temporal lobes as well as in the precuneus in GTCS patients. The relationship between these two modalities can serve as a brain-based marker for detecting epileptogenic changes.

Soil Moisture Monitoring Based on Land Surface Temperature-Vegetation Index Space Derived from MODIS Data

Soil moisture has been considered as one of the main indicators that are widely used in the fields of hydrology, climate, ecology and others. The land surface temperature-vegetation index （LST-VI） space has comprehensive information of the sensor from the visible to thermal infrared band and can well reflect the regional soil moisture conditions. In this study, 9 pairs of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer （MODIS） products （MOD09A1 and MODllA2）, covering 5 provinces in Southwest China, were chosen to construct the LST-VI space, and then the spatial distribution of soil moisture in 5 provinces of Southwest China was monitored by the temperature vegetation dryness index （TVDI）. Three LST-VI spaces were constructed by normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI）, enhanced vegetation index （EVI）, and modified soil-adjusted vegetation index （MSAVI）, respectively. The correlations between the soil moisture data from 98 sites and the 3 TVDIs calculated by LST-NDVI, LST-EVI and LST-MSAVI, respectively, were analyzed. The results showed that TVDI was a useful parameter for soil surface moisture conditions. The TVDI calculated from the LST-EVI space （TVDIE） revealed a better correlation with soil moisture than those calculated from the LST-NDVI and LST-MSAVI spaces. From the different stages of the TVDIE space, it is concluded that TVDIE can effectively show the temporal and spatial differences of soil moisture, and is an effective approach to monitor soil moisture condition.

Discriminant Genetic Algorithm Extended (DGAE) model for seasonal sand and dust storm prediction

Here we use a Discriminant Genetic Algorithm Extended (DGAE) model to diagnose and predict seasonal sand and dust storm (SDS) activities occurring in Northeast Asia. The study employed the regular meteorological data, including surface data, upper air data, and NCEP reanalysis data, collected from 1980–2006. The regional, seasonal, and annual differences of 3-D atmospheric circulation structures and SDS activities in the context of spatial and temporal distributions were given. Genetic algorithms were introduced with the further extension of promoting SDS seasonal predication from multi-level resolution. Genetic probability was used as a substitute for posterior probability of multi-level discriminants, to show the dual characteristics of crossover inheritance and mutation and to build a non-linear adaptability function in line with extended genetic algorithms. This has unveiled the spatial distribution of the maximum adaptability, allowing the forecast field to be defined by the population with the largest probability, and made discriminant genetic extension possible. In addition, the effort has led to the establishment of a regional model for predicting seasonal SDS activities in East Asia. The model was tested to predict the spring SDS activities occurring in North China from 2007 to 2009. The experimental forecast resulted in highly discriminant intensity ratings and regional distributions of SDS activities, which are a meaningful reference for seasonal SDS predictions in the future.

Structural Health Monitoring by Using Fiber-Optic Distributed Strain Sensors With High Spatial Resolution

In this paper, we review our researches on the topics of the structural health monitoring （SHM） with the fiber-optic distributed strain sensor. Highly-dense information on strains in a structure can be useful to identify some kind of existing damages or applied loads in implementation of SHM. The fiber-optic distributed sensors developed by the authors have been applied to the damage detection of a single-lap joint and load identification of a beam simply supported. We confirmed that the applicability of the distributed sensor to SHM could be improved as making the spatial resolution higher. In addition, we showed that the simulation technique considering both structural and optical effects seamlessly in strain measurement could be powerful tools to evaluate the performance of a sensing system and design it for SHM. Finally, the technique for simultaneous distributed strain and temperature measurement using the PANDA-fiber Bragg grating （FBG） is shown in this paper, because problems caused by the cross-sensitivity toward strain and temperature would be always inevitable in strain measurement for SHM.