湖北省人口与国土空间协调发展策略研究

人口是一切经济社会活动的基础,人才更是第一资源。在新时代背景下,分析当前人口的变动特征和内涵,对于优化国土空间布局、促进人口与国土空间协调发展、推进湖北省社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。基于人口统计数据分析,对湖北省人口结构转型与区域协调发展问题开展了研究。据此,提出人口与国土空间布局协调发展策略,通过优化空间布局、加强区域协同联动、推进新型城镇化等措施,为湖北省国土空间开发保护优化提供有益支撑。

江苏沿江港口群空间协调发展研究

当前,港口集群式发展已成为现代国家航运发展的重要趋势之一,港口空间协调水平是港口综合竞争力的重要反映。江苏沿江港口群作为长三角世界级港口空间格局的重要一极,实现其空间协调发展是促进长三角区域一体化的重要抓手。本文选取港口吞吐量、港口设施条件和港口所在城市的发展等指标,运用聚类分析对江苏沿江港口群的空间层级进行划分,通过因子分析法对港口群综合竞争力进行评价,以此对港口群空间协调发展水平作出判断,提出进一步提升江苏沿江港口群空间协调发展的对策建议:以区域合作提升沿江港口群整体能级;完善沿江港口顶层规划设计;建立优势互补、有机分工的三大港口子群;合理规划各港口的功能分工;构建海陆双向开放的一体化治理机制;打造长三角一体化发展和长三角改革开放再出发的港航新高地。

中国产业与就业空间协调发展研究

应用空间统计方法及GIS技术,结合全国维度产业和就业空间格局协调特征与城市维度产业和就业结构协同特征,全面分析了2003—2019年我国产业与就业空间格局及其空间协调发展演化态势。研究发现,我国第二产业和就业空间格局协调度最大,第三产业次之,第一产业最低;第一产业和就业“双重扩散”发展且空间格局协调度和结构协调性均减小,东北地区、黄河上中游地区、西南地区等第一产业与就业发展更加协调;第二产业和就业“双重集聚”发展且空间格局协调度和结构协调性均增大,我国第二产业仍具有一定的劳动力吸附优势,中西部地区更具有第二产业从业劳动力转入的可能;第三产业“产业集聚-就业扩散”发展且空间格局协调度和结构协调性均增大,沿海地区第三产业劳动生产率更高,具有较强的就业聚集潜力。建议在中西部地区加快推进形成具有竞争优势的产业集群等要素空间集聚点,拉动人口要素进一步集聚;在沿海地区优化调整第三产业的内部结构,大力促进金融业、信息传输、科学研究、技术服务等新兴服务业发展,充分发挥其就业拉动作用。

以城乡空间统筹规划促进城市边缘地区的空间协调发展——以涵江城北荔涵大道地区为例

城市化快速发展中,城市边缘地区空间形态的急速变化及其日益凸现的矛盾成为城市空间可持续发展的热点问题。本文以涵江城北荔涵大道地区为例,分析了城市边缘地区的空间形态特征和问题,并在此基础上探索加强城市边缘地区城乡空间统筹规划、促进空间协调发展的对策及建议。

上海远郊城镇圈空间协调发展策略思考——以祝桥—惠南城镇圈为例

上海2035总体规划首次提出以城镇圈作为空间组织和资源配置的基本单元,优化郊区空间结构。祝桥—惠南城镇圈作为上海远郊城镇圈,内部新市镇经历数次行政边界调整且承载高等级交通市政基础设施,本研究在解读城镇圈发展要求的基础上深入分析城镇圈现状人口、公共中心、交通等情况,对照规划目标,提出针对性的实施策略。

县域城乡空间经济耦合协调发展的中国经济思维

县域发展正从国家战略的末梢向国家战略关注的重点转变,这个层级背负着我国经济发展不平衡、不充分的主要突出问题。立足中国情境,揭示县域城乡空间经济耦合协调发展不平衡的基本格局,在有为政府主导下的有效市场的制度基础上,探索后发县域的两大类异质性影响因素,构建四个发展动力,打造四条发展的路径。

城市轨道交通建设时序影响因素分析

城市轨道交通建设时序是决定城市轨道交通线网的建设规模、建设时机和建设顺序的重要依据。文章分析了城市轨道交通建设时序研究的重要性,从城市轨道交通建设规划入手,结合城市轨道交通建设近期、中期、远期建设的影响因素分析建设时序的影响因素,提出城市轨道交通建设、运营、管理期间的三个共同影响因素:交通需求、线网完备性和与城市空间发展协调性,并以巴黎地铁为例,验证了这三个影响因素的合理性,为城市轨道交通建设时序研究提供一定的理论基础。

Changing Rural Development Inequality in Jilin Province, Northeast China

Rural development inequality is an important practical issue during the course of full establishment of a ′moderately well-off society′ in modern China,and the objective understanding and evaluation of the status and regional inequality of rural development can provide scientific basis for ′building a new countryside′ and coordination development of rural-urban regions.Based on the county-level data of 2000,2005 and 2009,this paper examines the rural development inequality of Jilin Province in Northeast China by establishing a rural development index.The spatio-temporal dynamic patterns and domain factors are discussed by using the method of exploratory spatial data analysis and multi-regression model.The results are shown as follows.Firstly,most of the counties were in lower development level,which accounted for 58.3%,62.5% and 66.7% of the total counties in 2000,2005 and 2009,respectively.The characteristics of spatial inequality were very obvious at county level.For example,rural development level of Changchun Proper and the proper of seven prefecture-level cities were much higher than that of the surrounding regions.The counties in the eastern and northern Jilin Province were the lowest regions of rural development level,while the middle counties were the rapid growth areas in rural economy.Secondly,Moran′s I of rural development index(RDI) was 0.01,–0.16 and –0.06 in 2000,2005 and 2009,respectively,which indicated that spatial agglomeration of RDI was not obvious in Jilin Province,and took on the characteristic of random distribution.The counties of both the units and its adjacent units have higher development level(HH) were transferred from the western areas to the eastern areas,while the countries of both the units and its adjacent units have lower development level(LL) were diffused from the eastern to middle and western Jilin Province.Finally,the result of multi-regression analysis showed that the improvement of agricultural production condition,development of agricultural economics and the adjustment of industrial structure were the domain factors affecting rural development inequality of Jilin Province in the later ten years.

Regional Disparities of China's Economic Development during 1992-2013——Based on DMSP/OLS Nighttime Lights Data of Cities

Balanced regional development is essential to China's economic stability and efficiency and achievement of the goal to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Based on the DMSP/OLS nighttime lights data of 291 cities at or above prefecture level during 1992-2013, this paper examines the regional disparities and trends of Chinese mainland's economic development. The findings are as follows:(1) During sample observation period, China's overall regional disparities generally declined despite some volatility; China's intra-regional disparities have been curbed yet a consistent framework for inter-regional economic coordination is lacking.(2) Southern coastal region contributes a significant share to China's overall regional disparities as the developed cities of Guangdong Province did not create a significant spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions.(3) According to the result of spatial Markov transition probability estimation, spatial factor has played a remarkable role in the evolution of China's regional economy and proximity to high-level regions will accelerate a region's transition toward higher levels.

中国乡村振兴的时空格局及其影响因素

构建中国乡村振兴指标体系,使用2009—2018年中国30省面板数据,基于个体固定效应的空间杜宾计量模型(SDM)对中国乡村振兴的影响因素进行研究。研究表明:2009—2018年中国乡村振兴水平和各维度水平均有明显增长且存在明显的正向空间溢出效应。局部空间集聚格局空间相关性显著,具有较强的稳定性,存在明显的“高—高”和“低—低”集聚趋势。空间杜宾模型估计结果表明,经济发展水平、对外开放水平、农林水财政支出、金融发展水平、产业集聚、老龄化水平均在1%显著性水平下通过检验,是影响乡村振兴的重要影响因素。基于研究结果认为,促进乡村振兴水平空间协调发展应从上述影响因素入手,推动落后地区乡村振兴水平的提升,进一步构建乡村振兴科学平衡的空间格局。