INTERNET TRAFFIC DATA FLOW FORECAST BY RBF NEURAL NETWORK BASED ON PHASE SPACE RECONSTRUCTION

Characteristics of the Internet traffic data flow are studied based on the chaos theory. A phase space that is isometric with the network dynamic system is reconstructed by using the single variable time series of a network flow. Some parameters, such as the correlative dimension and the Lyapunov exponent are calculated, and the chaos characteristic is proved to exist in Internet traffic data flows. A neural network model is construct- ed based on radial basis function （RBF） to forecast actual Internet traffic data flow. Simulation results show that, compared with other forecasts of the forward-feedback neural network, the forecast of the RBF neural network based on the chaos theory has faster learning capacity and higher forecasting accuracy.

Control of Spiral Waves and Spatiotemporal Chaos by Exciting Travel Wave Trains

Spiral waves and spatiotemporal chaos usually are harmful and need to be suppressed. In this paper, a method is proposed to control them. Travel wave trains can be generated by periodic excitations near left boundary,spiral waves and spatiotemporal chaos can be eliminated by the trains for some certain excitation periods. Obvious resonant behavior can be observed from the relation between the periods of the trains and excitation ones. The method is against noise.

Prediction method for risks of coal and gas outbursts based on spatial chaos theory using gas desorption index of drill cuttings

Based on the evolution of geological dynamics and spatial chaos theory, we proposed the advanced prediction an advanced prediction method of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings to predict coal and gas outbursts. We investigated and verified the prediction method by a spatial series data of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings obtained from the 113112 coal roadway at the Shitai Mine. Our experimental results show that the spatial distribution of the gas desorption index of drill cuttings has some chaotic charac- teristics, which implies that the risk of coal and gas outbursts can be predicted by spatial chaos theory. We also found that a proper amount of sample data needs to be chosen in order to ensure the accuracy and practical maneuverability of prediction. The relative prediction error is small when the prediction pace is chosen carefully. In our experiments, it turned out that the optimum number of sample points is 80 and the optimum prediction pace 30. The corresponding advanced prediction pace basically meets the requirements of engineering applications.

Optimization of support vector machine power load forecasting model based on data mining and Lyapunov exponents

According to the chaotic and non-linear characters of power load data,the time series matrix is established with the theory of phase-space reconstruction,and then Lyapunov exponents with chaotic time series are computed to determine the time delay and the embedding dimension.Due to different features of the data,data mining algorithm is conducted to classify the data into different groups.Redundant information is eliminated by the advantage of data mining technology,and the historical loads that have highly similar features with the forecasting day are searched by the system.As a result,the training data can be decreased and the computing speed can also be improved when constructing support vector machine(SVM) model.Then,SVM algorithm is used to predict power load with parameters that get in pretreatment.In order to prove the effectiveness of the new model,the calculation with data mining SVM algorithm is compared with that of single SVM and back propagation network.It can be seen that the new DSVM algorithm effectively improves the forecast accuracy by 0.75%,1.10% and 1.73% compared with SVM for two random dimensions of 11-dimension,14-dimension and BP network,respectively.This indicates that the DSVM gains perfect improvement effect in the short-term power load forecasting.