基于多变量的太灰含水层突水风险性分类判别研究

太灰含水层为华北型煤田的下组煤开采直接充水含水层,下组煤层开采时,在具有强水源补给或接近导水通道的部位,常会发生较大的灾害性突水事故。针对近年太灰含水层突涌水事故,从矿井水文地质条件、突水事故经过、原因、特点等方面进行统计分析,确定突水系数、含水层富水性、补给条件、断裂构造是否导通煤层及层位关系为太灰含水层突水风险分类判别的主要变量。根据确定的突水风险分类判别变量,将太灰含水层突水风险性划分为安全型(顶板型或底板型)、顶板突水危险型(有补给或无补给)、底板太灰单一突水危险型(有补给或无补给)、底板太灰与奥灰含水层关联突水危险型、陷落柱或断层贯通突水危险型等类型,并分别制订了防治方法。该研究可为受太灰含水层威胁的华北煤田下组煤层开采防治水工作提供参考。

新阳井田矿井突水灰色风险性评价研究

为了研究山西新阳井田上组煤顶板及下组煤底板突水水害问题,通过统计分析以往井田内突水实例,采用风险率和风险度评价与灰色评价理论相结合的方法建立统计学模型,对上组煤顶板及下组煤底板的突水风险率和突水风险度进行预测评价,评价结果表明井田下组煤发生底板突水的风险大于上组煤发生顶板突水的风险。

Risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush based on improved attribute mathematical theory

Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.

Risk assessment of water inrush in tunnels based on attribute interval recognition theory

Water inrush is one of the most serious geological hazards in underground engineering construction.In order to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of water inrush,a new attribute interval recognition theory and method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.Its innovation mainly includes that the value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value;the single-index attribute evaluation model is improved non-linearly based on the idea of normal distribution;the synthetic attribute interval analysis method based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy theory is proposed.The TFN-AHP method is proposed to analyze the weight of evaluation index.By analyzing geological factors and engineering factors in tunnel zone,a multi-grade hierarchical index system for tunnel water inrush risk assessment is established.The proposed method is applied to ventilation incline of Xiakou tunnel,and its rationality and practicability is verified by comparison with field situation and evaluation results of other methods.In addition,the results evaluated by this method,which considers that water inrush is a complex non-linear system and the geological conditions have spatial variability,are more accurate and reliable.And it has good applicability in solving the problem of certain and uncertain problem.