分析新时期小型农田水利工程管理问题与对策

小型农田水利工程具有较为明显的公益性特点,该工程能够对当地农田水分状况以及水利条件进行调整与完善,能够为农业生产提供可靠保障,保证农业稳定发展。在新时期之中该类型水利工程管理工作也发生了一定的变革,本文将以此为切入点,对新时期小型农田水利工程管理问题与解决方案展开全面研究,旨在解决工程管理问题,为农村经济发展提供保障。

AN IMPROVED FOSM METHOD FOR CALCULATING FAILURE PROBABILITY OF WELDED PIPES WITH FLAWS

The R F first order second moment method will produce more error for calculating the reliability of welded engineering pipe structures when the failure function is seriously nonlinear and the random variables don′t serve as normal distribution. In order to increase the computing accuracy of reliability, an improved FOSM method is used for calculating the failure probability of welded pipes with flaws in this paper. Because of solving the problems of the linear expansion of failure function at the failure point and constructing equivalent normal variables, the new algorithm can greatly improve the calculating accuracy of probability of the welded pipes with cracks. The examples show that this method is simple, efficient and accurate for reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with cracks. It can save more time than the Monte Carlo method does, so that the improved FOSM method is recommended for engineering reliability safety assessment of the welded pipes with flaws.

含蜡原油管道停输再启动可靠性研究

传统的确定性方法研究含蜡原油管道停输再启动的安全性存在很多不足,基于可靠性的方法可以很好地解决参数不确定性问题。国内已经有学者开展了停输再启动的可靠性研究。从停输再启动极限状态方程的建立、参数不确定性分析、可靠性分析、目标安全水平确定4个方面,总体评价了含蜡原油管道停输再启动可靠性研究的现状。针对现有研究的不足,提出了今后研究的2个方向:确定更加合理的可接受凝管概率、开发更加高效的算法。介绍了停输再启动失效概率的计算方法,并结合具体算例,指出凝管概率在工程实际中的指导意义:更加合理地确定输油温度和停输时间。

Assessing impact of oil spills in fairways in Chinese Bohai Sea with the impact matrix method

The density of traffic in Bohai Sea of China is growing,so the evaluation of the impact of potential oil spills becomes necessary.However,the impact of potential oil spills at a large temporal-spatial scale has seldom been studied.In this paper,the effects of potential oil spills in seven main fairways in Chinese Bohai Sea and the risks of five environmental sensitive areas(ESAs)being polluted are studied.A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model,coupled with Lagrangian particle tracking model,was constructed to simulate the transportation of oil spills.Hypothetical oil particles with an idealized,passive tracer were released along fairways and their transportation over20-day and180-day periods were simulated,respectively.An environmental impact matrix was built to reveal the relationship between oil spills in fairways and the pollution of ESAs.Results showed that in short term,Z4and Z5had high risk of being polluted by oil spills.Oil particles released along Fairways1,2and7had strong pollution effects.In long term,Z1,Z3,Z4and Z5had medium risk of being polluted.Oil particles released along Fairway3had strong pollution effects.This study might provide useful data to support marine environment protection.

Topology Based Reliable Virtual Network Embedding from a QoE Perspective

In the network virtualization environments, one of the most challenges is how to map the virtual networks(VNs) onto a shared substrate network managed by an infrastructure provider(In P), which is termed as virtual network embedding problem. Prior studies on this issue only emphasize on maximizing the revenue or minimizing the energy consumption while ignoring the reliability requirements of end-users. In our work, we incorporate the reliability probability into the virtual network embedding process with an aim to improve the Qo S/Qo E of end users from a new perspective. We devised two novel reliable virtual network embedding algorithms called RRW-Max Match and RDCC-VNE based on RW-Max Match and DCC-VNE, respectively. Extensive simulations demonstrated that the efficiency of our proposed algorithms is better than those of two primitive algorithms in terms of the reliability demands, the acceptance ratio of virtual networks and the long-term average revenue.

Complex patterns of precipitation and extreme events during 1951-2011 in Sichuan Basin, Southwestern China

Sichuan Basin is located in southwestern China and affected by a complex water vapor （WV） sources. Here, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and extreme events are investigated by six indices of World Meteorology Organization Commission, including annual precipitation total （AP）, maximum daily precipitation （Maxld）, intensity of rainfall over 1 mm/d （IR1）, maximum and mean consecutive dry days （Max CDD, Mean CDD） and coefficient of variance. Based on 24 daily precipitation time series from 1951 to 2o11, Mann-Kendall test is employed to quantify the significant level of these indices, from which the classification of precipitation change and its spatial patterns are obtained. Meanwhile, the probability distributions of these indices are identified by L-moment analysis and the Goodness-of-fit test, and the corresponding values are calculated by theoretical model at different return periods. The results reveal that the western basin displays normal drought： less AP and precipitation intensity while longer drought. The southern basin shows normal increase： larger AP and precipitation intensity but shorter CDD. However, in hilly region of the central basin and the transition zone between basin and mountains, precipitation changes abnormally： increasing both drought （one or both of Mean CDD and MaxCDD） and precipitation intensity （one or both of Maxld and trend of AP is. Probability IR1） no matter what the distribution models also demonstrate the complex patterns： a negative correlation between Maxld and Max CDD in the west （R2≥0.61） while a positive correlation in the east （R2≥0.41） at all return periods. These patterns are induced by the changes in WV sources and the layout of local terrain. The increase of WV in summer and decrease in spring leads to the heavier rainfall and longer drought respectively. The large heat island effect of the basin contributes to a lower temperature in transition zones and more precipitation in the downwind area. These results are helpful in reevaluating the risk regionally and making better decisions on water resources management and disaster prevention.

Probability and Statistical Error of Soil Sampling on Patches Assimilated during Delineation of Precision Farming Management Zones

When precision fanning management zones （MZs） are delineated in an agricultural field for precision nutrient management, unsupervised classification and cluster analysis procedures using remote sensing image analysis software are performed. These unsupervised classification and cluster analysis procedures are performed on the basis of the assumption that grouping of data points into naturally occurring clusters reduces within zone variability. The problem is that, there are small patches of different soil types within each management zone that are regarded as insignificant by the farmer, and are assimilated within larger MZs. These will consequently make soils within a management zone to be inhomogeneous. The objective of this study was to determine the probability of soil sampling occurrences on patches assimilated during delineation of MZs after a cluster analysis was performed. The study was conducted on a 5.0 ha （25°05′34.46″ S and 28°18′30.01″ E） and a 24.4 ha （23°59′04.61″ S and 28°52′29.43″ E） fields in the Waterberg District of the Limpopo Province in South Africa. A bare-soil high resolution Quickbird satellite imagery of a conventionally tilled agricultural field was used to develop MZs in the field. Soils were sampled using systematic unaligned sampling on a 35.0 m and 30.0 m grids for the 24.4 ha and 5.0 ha fields, respectively. Probabilities were calculated based on percentage area assimilated during the cluster analysis procedure that was performed using remote sensing image analysis software. The results indicated that in the 24.4 ha field there were 2.5 ha patches of high and medium zones that were assimilated within the low zone, and thus making low zones non-homogeneous. After cluster analysis and assimilation of patches, the low zone in the 24.4 ha field increased by 45.5% （2.5 ha） while the high zone was 16.4% （2.4 ha） smaller in size. In the smaller field of 5.0 ha, the high zone, which was originally 3.20 ha, lost 0.37 ha （11.6%）, which was assimilated in either low or medium zone. The study indicates that unequal probability proportional to size sampling could be used to minimize error when sampling across precision farming MZs because typically the low, medium and high MZs are not of equal size and do not contribute equally towards the mean values of soil samples.

A QoS-aware vertical handoff algorithm based on predictive network information

In converged heterogeneous wireless networks, vertical handoff is an important issue in radio resource management and occurs when an end user switches from one network to another （e.g., from wireless local area network to wideband code division multiple access）. Efficient vertical handoff should allocate network resources efficiently and maintain good quality of service （QoS） for the end users. The objective of this work is to determine conditions under which vertical handoff can be performed. The channel usage situation of each access network is formulated as a birth-death process with the objective of predicting the avaliable bandwidth and the blocking probability. A reward function is used to capture the network bandwidth and the blocking probability is expressed as a cost function. An end user will access the certain network which maximizes the total function defined as the combination of the reward fimction and the cost function. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can significantly improve the network performance, including higher bandwidth for end users and lower new call blocking and handoff call blocking probability for networks.

Empirical research on drive mechanism of firms' environmental management

Firms’transformation from passive envrionmental management to active environmental management is thekey to solving environmental problems. This paper empirically studies the impact of environmental management incen-tives on environmental management through model construction. Based on the data and reality of China, we can build aconcept model of environmental management driving mechanism, and put forward theoretical hypothesis that can betested: take the 13 environmental management behaviors (EMBs) as substitute of the comprehensiveness, introducecounting variables, and use NB model, Possion Model and Ordered Probit model the regression analysis. The theory andmethods brought forward in this paper will provide references for firms in China to further implement voluntaryenvironmental management, and offer advises and countermeasures for leaders to implement environmental manage-ment effectively.

Identification of contamination source in water distribution network based on consumer complaints

A new methodology was proposed for contamination source identification using information provided by consumer complaints from a probabilistic view.Due to the high uncertainties of information derived from users,the objective of the proposed methodology doesn't aim to capture a unique solution,but to minimize the number of possible contamination sources.In the proposed methodology,all the possible pollution nodes are identified through the CSA methodology firstly.And then based on the principle of total probability formula,the probability of each possible contamination node is obtained through a series of calculation.According to magnitude of the probability,the number of possible pollution nodes is minimized.The effectiveness and feasibility of the methodology is demonstrated through an application to a real case of ZJ City.Four scenarios were designed to investigate the influence of different uncertainties on the results in this case.The results show that pollutant concentration,injection duration,the number of consumer complaints nodes used for calculation and the prior probability with which consumers would complaint have no particular effect on the identification of contamination source.Three nodes were selected as the most possible pollution sources in water pipe network of ZJ City which includes more than 3 000 nodes.The results show the potential of the proposed method to identify contamination source through consumer complaints.

Georgian Social Insurance Fund Management Problems and Probabilistic and Statistical Analysis of Fund Capital Management

A mathematical model of management of a social insurance fund with exponential insurance reimburse and financing determined social programs is represented and analyzed; A probability density function and fund＇s functioning probabilistic characteristics are obtained, that makes it possible to determine the sufficiency of fund capital at all levels of its management. With the help of conclusion it is possible for particular period of time determine in insurance fund change of cash flow movement speed, on what basis in determined from state tax revenues assigns acceptance necessity and capacity.

Passenger Flow Status Evaluation in Subway Station Based on Probabilistic Neural Network

This paper select the escalator with large flow in the station as the object, analysing the correlation of the AFC data of the in and out gates and the passenger flow parameters by passenger flow density and the passing time acquired and calculated in the waiting area of the prediction escalator to select the gates related to the predicted the escalator. NARX neural network is used to predict the model of the passenger flow parameters of the escalator waiting area based on the related gates＇ AFC data, then a probabilistic neural network model was established by using the AFC data and predicted passenger flow parameters as input and the passenger flow status in the escalator waiting area of subway station as output.The result shows the predicting model can predict the passenger flow status of the escalator waiting area better by the AFC data in the subway station. Research result can provide decision basis for the operation management of the subway station.

Research on the Applications of Probability Model and Matrix Transformation in Data Analysis and Management under the Environment of Information Time

In this paper, we research the probability theory and matrix transformation based technique to manage the data for processing and analysis. Clustering analysis research has a long history, over the decades, the importance and the cross characteristics with other research direction to get the affirmation of the people. The probability theory and linear algebra act as the powerful tool for analyzing and mining data. The experimental result illustrates the effectiveness. In the near future, we plan to conduct more theoretical analysis on the topic.

Probability of Failure Assessment in District Heating Network

The aim of this paper is to present works performed in HTC （Heat-Tech Center）, Research ＆ Development Centre of Veolia Group located in Warsaw regarding assessment of probability of failure in DHN （district heating network）. This work is a part of a project dedicated to develop a software which objective is to increase reliability of DHN. The research methods consisted of three approaches. First, using database of failures which happened in Warsaw DHN and repairing protocols from past 10 years, a statistics approach was applied to perform first analysis. The result was that pipelines with nominal diameter DN （nominal diameter） ≤ 150 had higher failure rate per km, than pipelines with DN 〉 150. The next step of research was to study influence of internal （corrosion caused by heat carrier, quality of materials） and external （stray currents） factor in order to assess its individual influence on failure rate of pipe and explain reasons of differences in failure rate. To end a FMEA （failure mode and＇effects analysis） will aim to identify the main failures modes appearing on DHN, to estimate the main causes of these failures and to propose the best solutions regarding the causes, the costs and the means available.

西部原油管道多品种原油安全高效输送技术

从乌鲁木齐到兰州、全长1 838 km的西部原油管道是我国西部石油输送战略通道。该管道建设和运行过程中遇到了一系列严峻的技术挑战,包括管输原油品种多、物性差异大且不确定性强,原油管道与成品油管道长距离同沟敷设带来两管间的热力影响,以及采用顺序输送、冷热油交替输送、含蜡原油常态化间歇输送等几乎所有的原油管道复杂运行方式。通过技术创新,成功地解决了上述技术难题,形成了多品种原油加剂改性顺序输送、长距离管道冷热油交替输送、长距离顺序输送含蜡原油管道间歇输送、同沟敷设管道热力影响数值模拟、含蜡原油管道停输凝管概率评价方法等输油新技术成果。2007年管道投产以来,这些成果的综合应用满足了各种复杂输送任务的要求,确保了管道安全、高效、灵活运行。

中国-朝鲜原油管道中方段流动安全性评价

中国-朝鲜原油管道长期以超低输量间歇输送,并在伴有河流穿越、温降较快的条件下运行,导致频繁的停输再启动,从而使得管道的流动安全性降低,因此有必要对该管道进行全面的流动安全性评价。根据该管道近3年的生产运行数据,对流量、出站温度、地温等影响流动安全性的关键参数的分布规律进行了校验,利用自动统计分析软件对采集的生产运行数据进行分析和统计,以初凝概率为指标给出了各月份的建议安全输量,并对中朝原油管道现有的允许停输时间进行了校核,给出了新的流动安全性评价结果。研究结果为中朝原油管道的安全运行提供了参考。

Holistic Disaster Risk Evaluation for the Urban Risk Management Plan of Manizales,Colombia

Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects of a society. For a better risk understanding, a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales, Colombia. This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and loss, but also for the socioeconomic vulnerability factors that favor secondorder effects in a disaster. This comprehensive approach allows the identification of different aspects related to physical vulnerability, social fragility, and lack of resilience that can be improved, thus enhancing integrated disaster risk management actions. The outcomes of this comprehensive assessment are currently being used as input to update the disaster risk management plan of Manizales.

Uncertainty analysis and probabilistic design optimization of hybrid rocket motors for manned lunar landing

To obtain a conceptual design for a hybrid rocket motor(HRM)to be used as the Ascent Propulsion System in the Apollo lunar module,the deterministic design optimization(DDO)method is applied to the HRM design.Based on the results of an uncertainty analysis of HRMs,an uncertainty-based design optimization(UDO)method is also adopted to improve the design reliability.The HRM design process,which is a multidisciplinary system,is analyzed,and a mathematical model for the system design is established to compute the motor performance from the input parameters,including the input variables and model parameters.The input parameter uncertainties are quantified,and a sensitivity analysis of the model parameter uncertainties is conducted to identify the most important model parameter uncertainties for HRMs.The DDO and probabilistic UDO methods are applied to conceptual designs for an HRM to be used as a substitute for the liquid rocket motor(LRM)of the Ascent Propulsion System.The conceptual design results show that HRMs have several advantages as an alternative to the LRM of the Ascent Propulsion System,including nontoxic propellant combination,small motor volume,and comparable functions,such as restarting and throating.Comparisons of the DDO and UDO results indicate that the UDO method achieves more robust and reliable optimal designs than the DDO method.The probabilistic UDO method can be used to develop better conceptual designs for HRMs.