企业财务预警的方法探讨

文章在借鉴宏观经济预警方法的基础上 ,探讨了几种企业财务危机预警的具体方法 ,这些方法具有较强的可操作性 。

房地产公司财务困境数据研究

经历了几十年的快速发展,我国的房地产市场上越来越多地出现了供需过旺的情况,房地产公司的扩张速度在不断攀升,房地产行业也已经逐渐成为了国民经济的一个重要支柱。然而,随着知识经济的迅猛发展,信息的获取对于房地产行业至关重要,这就要求我国房地产行业了解自身的状态及财务困境,避免资金链断裂。当前,我国房地产公司主要资金来源的结构有诸多不合理的因素存在,仅仅是武汉地区的房地产公司中就约有70%的资金来自于银行贷款,如果资产证券化等多样的金融手段没有加以运用,会使得一部分的房地产公司陷入财务困境。本文总结和分析房地产公司陷入财务困境的原因,并提出其免于陷入困境以及走出困境的可行性建议。

Evaluation model for freeway incident management system

In order to evaluate the general situation and find special problems of the freeway incident management system, an evaluation model is proposed. First, the expert appraisal approach is used to select the primary evaluation index. As a result, 81 indices and the hierarchical structures of the index such as the object layer, the sub-object layer, the criterion layer and the index layer are determined. Then, based on the fuzzy characteristics of each index layer, the analytical hierarchy process（AHP）and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are applied to generate the weight and the satisfaction of the index and the criterion layers. When analyzing the relationship between the sub-object layer and the object layer, it is easy to find that the number of sub-objects is too large and sub-objects are significantly redundant. The partial least square （PLS） is proposed to solve the problems. Finally, an application example, whose result has already been accepted and employed as the indication of a new project in improving incident management, is introduced and the result verifies the feasibility and efficiency of the model.

The resettlement planning and practice of Three Gorges Project

Migrant resettlement is essential to the success of the Three Gorges Project (TGP),and the smooth implementation of resettlement is ensured by the resettlement planning and effective organization management.In the process of resettlement planning and implementation,systematic legislation and document support system is established;environmental capacity analysis and assets appraisal methods are introduced;resettlement sites are selected through in-depth analysis and comparison;the relationship between resettlement compensation and local development is correctly understood and considered,and reasonable resettlement schedules are well prepared.Through the establishment of efficient management system and capital management mode of "static control and dynamic management",as well as the timely adjustment of plan according to actual situations,the resettlement is accomplished smoothly.Thus,the social stability of the reservoir area is ensured;the economic development of reservoir area is promoted,and it has promoted successfully the improvement of legislation,regulations and techniques for land requisition and resettlement.The paper also discusses the theory and prospective work of resettlement.

游泳场所卫生状况综合评价方法的应用和比较

[目的]应用综合评价方法评价游泳场所卫生状况，并对各方法的合理性进行比较，并验证其一致性。[方法]以2009年上海市长宁区30家游泳场所的卫生监督检查和水质检测两大类资料作为研究对象。对卫生监督检查资料应用量化分级管理评分法综合评价游泳场所卫生状况；对水质检测资料分别应用合格率法、综合指数法、模糊数学法和人工神经网络法构建水质综合评价模型并进行水质等级判断。最后，对五种综合评价方法的结果进行一致性检验。[结果]相比于其他评价方法，人工神经网络法有其方法学的优势，经其构建的水质综合评价模型评价的游泳场所水质平均等级为2．27级，各水质等级的游泳场所单位数的分布呈“两头少，中间多”的纺锤形结构，且显示出体育场馆内设游泳场所的等级达标率较高（100．0％）和小区会所内设游泳场所的等级达标率较低（68．2％），这些结果与历年来的游泳场所卫生监督检测结果基本相符。经综合指数法、合格率法和模糊数学法构建的水质综合评价模型评价的游泳场所水质平均等级分别为3．23级、2．87级和2．20级。经量化分级管理评分法评价的游泳场所卫生平均等级为2．27级。五种综合评价方法的结果间的Kappa系数在-0．134～0．173之间。[结论]五种综合评价方法结果的一致性较低，应用人工神经网络法构建的游泳场所水质综合评价模型相对合理。