黄土高原地区粮食产需预测及增产途径

以黄土高原地区多年平均粮食增长率为依据,1.6%和1.0%两种人口年增长速度、和300kg、350kg、400kg三种人均年占有粮食水平组成的四个方案,对全区及其12个分区的粮食产需进行了预测。结果表明,2000年全区粮食产需仍达不到平衡状态,其中以人口年增长率为1.6%,人均年占粮水平为400kg的方案,全区到2028年才能达到产需平衡;各分区达到平衡的时间差异很大,个别分区因人口增长过快使缺粮更趋严重。最后,作者提出通过加强水利、农田基本建设、推广良种和增加肥料投入等措施,促进粮食增长。

粮食产能安全责任的制定与层级政府分配——基于产能约束性指标的文本分析

粮食产能安全约束性指标的首次确立,成为国家保障粮食安全、压实地方政府粮食安全主体责任的又一重大举措。本文从治理风险的交易成本角度入手,并借助对“十四五”规划和粮食产能约束性指标文本的收集和手工整理,系统考察了粮食产能安全政府责任的产生缘由、制度内涵与具体运行机制。研究发现:(1)粮食供给的风险治理构成了政府承担粮食产能安全主体责任的重要缘由;(2)在现有的农地产权制度架构下,地方政府承担粮食产能安全责任的制度内涵,并非是要求各级政府强制干预农户自主的种植经营权利,而是主要通过约束政府占用耕地和强调提高种粮综合收益的政府行为,以达到遏制农地非农化和预防耕地非粮化的风险治理目的;(3)责任运行的指标体系上,从中央到地方各级政府主要将粮食产能约束性指标细分为粮食面积和粮食产量两类指标体系,其中粮食面积较之粮食产量在采用地区数量上占比更高,且指标用词也更显约束性;(4)责任指标在层级政府间的纵向与横向配置上,各级地方政府均严格落实并分解了上级政府的粮食产能指标,加码特征并不显著,但呈现出分布不平衡和集中化特征。

“十五五”粮食安全视域下中国粮食产需匹配度研究

基于2015—2021年中国31个省份面板数据,以稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆为例,采用熵权TOPSIS法和耦合协调度模型对中国粮食产需匹配水平进行量化测度,并综合运用Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数和灰色预测模型分析其时空格局和演化趋势。结果表明:中国粮食产需匹配水平总体较低,其中小麦产需匹配度最低、呈高度失配,稻谷和玉米为低度失配,大豆为中度失配;除玉米外,其余品种的产需匹配度均出现不同程度下降。从区域分布来看,相比较于主销区和产销平衡区,主产区的产需匹配水平明显更高。差异性分析表明,口粮比饲料粮的产需匹配度的空间差异明显更大,后者呈扩大趋势,而区域间差异是空间差异的主要来源。各省粮食产需匹配度呈空间正相关性,且该空间效应具有时变性以及区域、品种异质性。趋势预测显示,在“十五五”前中期,中国粮食产需匹配情况整体将有所改善,但个别省份和品种存在较大的下滑风险。据此,建议将产需匹配度纳入粮食安全评价体系进行分品种、分区域动态监测,因地制宜、因时制宜精准施策,促进粮食产需的区域平衡和结构平衡。

东北地区粮食产能安全保障的多重障碍与突破路径

全方位夯实粮食安全根基必须紧握粮食产能安全主动权。把握好中国特色粮食产能安全的科学内涵,着力推进新一轮粮食产能提升行动应突出抓好国内区域重点。本文在阐释粮食产能安全内涵的基础上,聚焦东北地区粮食产能安全保障的现实问题,分析当前东北地区粮食生产在结构问题、资源约束和环境风险等方面存在的诸多挑战,并针对性地提出未来思路转向和突破路径。研究表明,生产结构矛盾短期内难以改变、生产的资源要素约束逐渐增多、生产环境风险隐患正日益凸显是东北地区粮食产能安全保障的主要障碍。未来亟需推动粮食生产从“多产粮、保产量”转向“稳产粮、优结构”,从“拼资源,高消耗”转向“拼科技,披绿色”,从“被动调整和响应”转向“主动预见和适应”,并从持续调优生产结构,增加优质粮食产品供给、严守生态保护红线,减少资源环境承载压力、增强粮食生产活力,引领现代生产经营方式、提高区域气候韧性,完善环境风险防控体系等方面寻求突破。

我国粮食主销区的粮食安全问题研究——基于粮食产需平衡缺口视角

我国粮食主销区的粮食安全基础脆弱,影响全国粮食安全状况。测算了我国粮食主销区的粮食产需平衡缺口及各主销区的粮食缺口程度,并采用面板数据模型分析了影响主销区粮食产需平衡缺口的主要因素。研究表明:主销区粮食产需平衡缺口越来越大,但各主销区粮食缺口程度有所不同。北京和上海为极大缺口区,平均粮食产需平衡缺口率超过70%;天津和广东为较大缺口区,平均粮食产需平衡缺口率为40%~43%;浙江和福建为大缺口区;海南省为一般缺口区。粮食产量、口粮消费量、间接粮食消费量和城镇人口比例的变化对主销区粮食产需平衡缺口变化具有显著影响。提高粮食产量有利于缩小主销区粮食缺口,主销区人口增长、城镇化水平提高、主销区居民对畜禽水产品和大豆油等的间接粮食消费增加会加剧粮食缺口扩大。鉴于此,提出促进粮食主销区粮食安全的相关措施,以期为实现新形势下国家粮食安全战略提供参考。

新常态下我国粮食生产能力安全的多维度变化及政策取向

粮食产能安全是国家粮食安全的核心,恢复发展粮食生产的过程,实际上就是提高粮食产能的过程。面对纷繁变化的新形势,我国粮食产能安全将不得不长期应对粮食运作格局、粮食生产环境、粮食作业成本、粮食市场风险、粮食贸易壁垒的变化的新常态。基于此,有必要从时空布局、经济属性、作用地位、矛盾索解、类型层面、产品加工、国际粮情等进行多维度的分析。应当在分析新常态下粮食产能安全多维度变化的基础上,从问题和忧患意识出发,提出建构新常态下我国粮食产能安全复合系统的政策取向。

基于县域尺度的京津冀地区粮食产需时空格局及安全研究

应用GIS技术和空间自相关分析方法,对京津冀地区1990—2010年粮食产需的时空格局变化进行研究,构建粮食安全指数,识别京津冀粮食安全区域及其变化。结果表明:1990年以来,京津冀地区粮食生产经历了上升期、快速下降期、恢复增长期3个变化阶段,粮食低产县逐年减少,中产县基本保持稳定,高产县则呈上升趋势;粮食产需存在明显空间聚集现象,南部平原成为粮食生产及产需差热点,而北部则为低值聚集区;在安全区域识别方面,大部分县属于生产安全-消费安全类型,较少县属于生产安全-消费不安全类型,生产不安全-消费不安全的类型最少;对区域安全变化进行分类,安全-安全类型的县主要分布在南部平原地区,不安全-不安全类则主要为直辖市市区、地级市市区以及北部高原、山地区。京津冀作为一体化协同发展地区,地区间优势互补,对整个区域的粮食安全具有重要意义。

中国粮食产需平衡的时空格局演变分析--基于粮食用途和省域层面的视角

我国粮食安全形势总体良好,但区域性矛盾问题不容忽视,优化粮食安全区域布局有利于增强粮食安全风险防范能力。文章从粮食用途角度,估算2013-2018年31省市的粮食需求量,将粮食产需划分为6个不同等级,分析我国粮食产需平衡的时空演变规律,测算了空间自相关性。结果显示:1)2013-2018年,我国粮食高产区增产而低产区减产,粮食生产重心向高产区集中,粮食生产的省域差距持续增加。2)口粮和饲料用粮是粮食总需求结构中重要的两个部分;间接用粮和粮食总需求量变动呈现“北减南增”、“东减西增”的空间变动。3)山东、四川和辽宁虽为粮食主产区,但也表现为高缺粮。有充足的粮食可输出的省份为黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、河南、安徽、新疆和甘肃。2013-2018年,多数省市内的粮食产需不平衡现象得到了改善,省级层面粮食安全水平提高。4)我国粮食产需呈现空间正相关,具有集聚状态,且口粮需产差的空间集聚性更强、更稳定。高余粮区集中在黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆等偏北区域,而高缺粮区集中在东南沿海。基于上述分析,文章得出平衡好口粮需求和间接粮食需求之间、粮食输入地和输出地之间的关系;完善粮食流通体系,加强粮食供应链管理的启示。

城镇化进程中农业劳动力老龄化对粮食产量的影响

农业劳动力向城镇转移以及农业劳动力老龄化可能对粮食产量造成不利影响。为了验证上述问题,本文利用2002-2016年省际面板数据,分析了中国城市化进程中,农业劳动力老龄化对粮食产量的影响。研究发现,农业劳动力老龄化对粮食产量的影响是非线性的,呈现先增后减的"倒U型"结构;当老年农业人口比例不超过0.159时,农业劳动力老龄化对粮食生产并没有造成不利影响;但老年农业人口比例跨过0.159的门槛值后,农业劳动力老龄化对粮食产量产生明显的负向影响。加快农村土地流转、消除城乡二元结构等措施有助于缓解城镇化及农业劳动力老龄化对粮食产量的不利影响。

粮食主产区农民增收的根本途径——对吉林省粮食主产区农民增收问题的调查

为探讨粮食主产区农民增收问题,国家统计局农村社会经济调查总队和吉林省农村社会经济调查队对榆树、农安、德惠、公主岭和梨树等5个产粮大县进行了实地调查。这5个县市是吉林省产粮大县的前5名,也是全国前10名中的产粮大县。调查采取访问座谈和问卷调查相结合的方式,共调查了100个普通农户、10个种粮大户、10个养殖业大户、5个农副产品加工龙头企业和20名乡镇长。

做好粮食测产的准备工作

粮食测产工作是统计工作的一项重要内容。如何搞准搞实粮食产量,一方面按照粮食测产的操作规程进行实割实测;另一面就是要重视粮食测产的准备工作。

全球粮食市场形势及中国市场变化特点

2021/2022年度全球粮食产需形势保持稳定,主要隐患集中在局部灾害、新冠肺炎疫情、粮食政策等方面。我国饲料粮进口数量增加,国际粮食市场出现新的变化。2021年国际粮食价格涨幅较大,由于货币流动性充裕,粮食等大宗商品价格面临波动的可能性大。防范国际粮食价格上涨向国内传导对于确保国家粮食安全意义重大。为此,建议立足国内保障自给,积极利用"两个市场、两种资源",加强重要民生商品价格调控,密切跟踪监测粮食市场,强化预期引导作用。

Variations of Frost-free Period and Its Impact on Grain Yields in Henan Province during 1961-2013

The aim of this study was to investigate the responses of frost dates to global warming and its influences on grain yields. In this study, based on the frost date series defined by daily minimum ground temperature, the spatial and temporal characteristics of first frost date （FFD）, last frost date （LFD） and frost-free period （FFP） were analyzed. The impact of extending FFP on major crop yields was also studied. The results were as follows： FFD showed a significantly delaying trend of 2.2 d/10 y, and LFD presented an advancing trend of 2.4 d/10 y. FFP extended at a rate of 4.5 d/10 y due to the later FFD and earlier LFD. The most obvious trend of FFD was in westem Henan, while the most significant trend of LFD and FFP oc- curred in south central parts of the study area. However, in eestem region, the trends of FFD, LFD and FFP were not so obvious. Major crop yield showed a sig- nificant correlation with frost-free period for Henan during 1961-2013. The yields of grain, rice, wheat, and maize increased by 79.5, 90.0, 79.5 and 70.5 kg/hm2 with FFP extending by one day.

The Evolution of Drought in China and Its Impact on Agriculture in Recent Years

[Objective] To research the evolution of drought in China and its impact on agriculture in recent years. [Method] We analyzed land area covered, area affected, and disaster rate arising from severe drought occurring in China in the period 1978-2008, in conjunction with the planting area of crops in China and forcing of drought on the planting area of crops. [Result] In recent years, a large portion of provinces and cities in China, especially the southern areas, the drought has not yet been eased, but tends to deteriorate; since 1978, the area affected in China occasioned by drought has been rapidly mounting, and total crop failure area caused by drought, on the whole, also assumes trend of rise. In the mean time, population explosion and economic development are responsible for dwindling of planting area of grain, and tardy rise in total grain yield. [Conclusion] Constructing harmonious valley and achieving concordant coexistence between human and water, is to regulate human behaviors and further strengthen related ecological protection work, on the basis of scientifically understanding and correctly harnessing natural law.

Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Change of Grain Production of China in Recent Years and Its Adaptation Strategies

A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production（including wheat,maize and rice）,as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation.

Technological Paths for Improving Grain Comprehensive Productivity ——Taking Henan Province for Instance

[Objective] This paper aimed at exploring technological paths for improving grain productivity based on the conditions and production practice in Henan Province.[Method] The status and dynamics of grain production in Henan Province were analyzed as a whole.[Result] The total production of grain in Henan Province had generally shown a tendency of ascent.Total grain production in Henan Province was 54 370 thousand t,which was 2.5 times of the total grain production in 1978,as 20 974 thousand t.The growth of grain production was more and more relying on the improvement of grain yield per unit area.[Conclusion] This research had provided theoretical basis for the improvement of grain production in Henan Province as well as for the grain production of the whole country.

Wheat-Corn Double Cropping Production Status and Balanced Yield-increasing Potential in Henan Province

[Objective] This paper aimed to analyze the production status and balanced yield-increasing technology for wheat-corn double cropping production in Henan Province. [Method] Natural conditions in Henan Province, status and potential of wheat-corn double cropping production were explored, and factors affecting wheat-corn double cropping production capacity were analyzed. [Result] Yield-increasing of grain in Henan Province is achieved mainly depending on the increase of wheat and corn production, and corn has a relatively large yield-increasing potential. Research on high-yield and efficient technology for wheat-corn double cropping production in Henan Province has laid the technical basis for balanced yield-increasing of annual double cropping production. [Conclusion] This study provided a theoretical basis for grain production in Henan Province and a reference for the national food production.

Construction of Land Resource Security System for Core Grain Production Region in Henan Province

To solve the contradiction between supply and demand of land, the con- struction of land resource security guarantee system is an important part to coordi- nate the economic development and cultivated land protection in the core grain pro- duction region. Based on the deep analysis on the land resources characteristics and problems using the combined method of literature review method with qualita- tive and quantitative analysis, we constructed the land resource security system for different categories according to the land use principles of optimization, intensivism, improvement, and overall planning, and proposed the corresponding supporting mea- sures. The results showed that controlling the new increase, promoting the reclama- tion and improvement of land are the basis for land resource security, clearing the idle, improving the utilization rate of stock are the core of the efficient use of land resources, and establishing a unified urban and rural construction land market is the key to promoting the economical and intensive utilization of land resources, provid- ing scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of land resources in the core grain production regions.

The Study on Innovation Model Characteristics and Function Enhancement of “Leading Grain Enterprises+Farmers” in New Circumstances——an Investigation and Analysis on Major Grainproducing Areas in Hubei Province

ln the context of comprehensively deepening the reform, and integration of three The first, second and third industry sectors in rural areas, the research took major grain-producing areas in Hubei as an example, analyzed dominant grain in-dustrialization models “leading grain enterprises＋farmers”, and revealed its character-istics, advantages, and approaches for function reinforcement. The research is so meaningful, practical y or in future.

Analysis of Driving Factors of Grain Output in Henan Province Based on Grey Correlation Model

Henan Province is an important grain production base, whose stable production is related to the economic development and social stability significantly. To summarize the primary factors of grain producing, we used grey correlation analysis method to analyze 10 correlative factors such as grain yield, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigated area, rural employed persons, grain planting area, consumption of chemical fertilizer in 25 years. The results showed order of synthetic degree of incidence: effective irrigated area>rural electricity consumption>consumption of chemical fertilizer>disaster crop area>grain yield per unit of area>total power of agricultural machinery>afflicted crop area>grain planting area>number of the rural employed persons. Finally, according to synthetic degree of incidence between influential factors and total grain output respectively, a series of measures and the suggestions was proposed for grain production in Henan Province, which will also provide the scientific basis and help for the government correct decision-making.