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河北省耕地利用变化对粮食生产的影响效应及时空格局分析 被引量:13
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作者 潘佩佩 王晓旭 +3 位作者 赵倩石 葛京凤 杨桂山 郑治伟 《地理与地理信息科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第6期85-92,共8页
耕地利用与粮食生产耦合研究对区域粮食安全和可持续发展意义重大。基于GIS和模型分解法从不同时空角度分析河北省耕地利用对粮食生产的影响格局,结果表明:1)1985-2015年河北省粮食总产显著增加,耕地时空变化差异驱动区域粮食生产空间... 耕地利用与粮食生产耦合研究对区域粮食安全和可持续发展意义重大。基于GIS和模型分解法从不同时空角度分析河北省耕地利用对粮食生产的影响格局,结果表明:1)1985-2015年河北省粮食总产显著增加,耕地时空变化差异驱动区域粮食生产空间分化显著,产量增幅呈现南高北低格局;2)不同尺度耕地影响效应同中存异,省域尺度粮食单产持续其较高贡献量,区域尺度影响格局有所变化,粮食单产和复种指数主要表现为增产作用,粮食单产贡献量较大但增产作用逐步减弱,耕地面积和粮播比减产作用明显,且呈增加趋势;3)不同阶段县域耕地利用变化对粮食生产的影响格局不同,单产正向效应显著但影响范围缩小,耕地面积和复种指数影响范围扩大,粮播比减产作用显著但影响范围先增后减。该研究可为河北省耕地利用以及粮食生产分区优化和动态调控提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 粮食生产变化 耕地利用 指标分解 时空演变 河北省
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宁夏粮食生产与耕地压力变化的分析与预测 被引量:15
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作者 杨忍 任志远 徐茜 《干旱区资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2008年第12期47-50,共4页
本文基于最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力指数模型和时间序列平滑外推预测的方法对宁夏回族自治区自建国以来50多年进行粮食生产、耕地压力指数作动态变化分析,对未来15年的粮食生产、耕地变化、人口、耕地压力指数预测。结果表明:(1)粮食... 本文基于最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力指数模型和时间序列平滑外推预测的方法对宁夏回族自治区自建国以来50多年进行粮食生产、耕地压力指数作动态变化分析,对未来15年的粮食生产、耕地变化、人口、耕地压力指数预测。结果表明:(1)粮食总产量大幅增加的趋势,1950年宁夏的粮食总产量为33512×104kg,人均占有量为266.05kg,到2004年粮食总产量为290488×104kg,是1950年粮食总产量的8.87倍。(2)耕地压力指数变化大致分为四个阶段。第一阶段,1950-1957年,耕地压力指数迅速减小,从1950年的1.46减少至1957年的1.16。第二阶段,1957-1961年,粮食产量急剧下降,耕地压力指数高达1.61,该区域的粮食处于严重不安全的状态。第三阶段,1962-1984年,耕地压力指数呈下降的趋势,到1984年降至最低点0.9,粮食安全处于富余状态。第四阶段,1984-2004年,处于波动有升的趋势。(3)1950-2004年,人均耕地面积和最小人均耕地面积一直处于减少的趋势,分别从1950年的0.57hm2和0.832hm2降至2004年的0.19hm2和0.22hm2。(4)在未来的15年里,宁夏的耕地压力指数有下降的趋势,人口继续的增加,到2020年可能达7435792人,粮食产量也将会提高,到2020年预计可达426663kg。区域粮食安全隐患较小,但耕地面积减少的趋势很严重,所以对耕地的保护需要进一步的加强。 展开更多
关键词 粮食生产变化 最小人均耕地面积 耕地压力指数 宁夏
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河南省粮食生产动态变化及驱动机制分析研究 被引量:12
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作者 贺振 《干旱区资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2010年第6期6-9,共4页
河南省是我国重要的粮食生产基地,其稳定的粮食生产对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。利用河南省29年粮食产量数据,应用主成分分析法(PCA)研究了河南省粮食生产的主要影响因素。分析结果表明,社会经济发展水平、农业科技进步和自然灾害... 河南省是我国重要的粮食生产基地,其稳定的粮食生产对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。利用河南省29年粮食产量数据,应用主成分分析法(PCA)研究了河南省粮食生产的主要影响因素。分析结果表明,社会经济发展水平、农业科技进步和自然灾害是影响粮食生产的3个主要成分。根据影响粮食生产的主要因子,提出了稳定、提高粮食生产的具体建议和对策,为河南省粮食生产,政府正确决策提供了科学依据。 展开更多
关键词 河南省 粮食生产动态变化 主成分分析
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Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Change of Grain Production of China in Recent Years and Its Adaptation Strategies 被引量:2
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作者 周巧富 吴绍洪 +2 位作者 戴尔阜 潘韬 陈曦炜 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2010年第9期164-167,共4页
A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gra... A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation. 展开更多
关键词 Grain production Temporal and spatial change Adaptation strategies
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Impact of Climate Change on Rice Water Demand and Food Security: Case of Thailand and Vietnam
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作者 P. Suttinon A. M. Bhatti S. Nasu 《Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology》 2010年第6期63-70,共8页
Water plays an important role in food production especially rice. Rice productivity depends greatly on sufficient water to meet evaporative demand and soil moisture. It is certain thalL rice, the most important crop o... Water plays an important role in food production especially rice. Rice productivity depends greatly on sufficient water to meet evaporative demand and soil moisture. It is certain thalL rice, the most important crop of Thailand and Vietnam, is vulnerable to climate change. This paper proposes an analysis on the impact of climate on rice water requirement and food security in Thailand and Vietnam. Water demand, yield and production of rice were computed under the changed surface air temperature for three time slices, namely 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Food security was analyzed from rice supply (calculated milled-rice product, rice stock, and imports) and demand (domestic uses from population growth, exports to world market, domestic seed and other uses). The result showed that, under the higher surface air temperature scenario, water requirement office in Thailand and Vietnam could increase by 1.8 times in the end of the 21 st century. Production of rice dropped by declined yield. Thailand and Vietnam which is the world largest rice exporter in last decades will face the rice shortage in 2080s and 2030s respectively. 展开更多
关键词 Climate change food security RICE Thailand VIETNAM water demand.
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Land Suitability Assessment and Landuse Planning: A Prerequisite for Food Security and Climate Change Adaptation
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作者 Kwabena Abrefa Nketia Yeboah Edward +2 位作者 Asamoah Eric Forkuo Kwabena Eric Senayah James 《Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(A)》 2014年第8期650-656,共7页
Though Ghana's crop yield growth rate was at 17%, 5% of every 1.2 million Ghanaians have insufficient and limited access to nutritious food. Climate change and climate variability have enormously affected the state o... Though Ghana's crop yield growth rate was at 17%, 5% of every 1.2 million Ghanaians have insufficient and limited access to nutritious food. Climate change and climate variability have enormously affected the state of agricultural productivity and hence could result in food insecurity. As many ongoing projects use Boolean suitability analysis, land use planning, management recommendations sores, it still remains inadequate to support rural resource poor farmers. This then, is affecting livelihood and agricultural productivity. In this paper, a geostatistical quantitative method to support a geographic information system (GIS) based on multi-criteria decision support system (GMCDSS) for an enhanced land suitability assessment (LSA) and landuse planning (LP) was devised. Project findings indicated that, recommended farm inputs could be estimated and applied accordingly at farm plot levels Soil amendment indicators (e.g., 1.0 t/ha lime + 1.0 t/ha gypsum was estimated for liming) was quantified and currently, farmers can save money in soil fertility management. It has shown that, instead of applying 5.0 t/ha poultry manure (PM) or five bags of N-P-K fertilizer (rate of 15: 15: 15 N-P2O5-K2O/ha) + two bags of sulphate of ammonia (SA), a farmer may apply 2.0 t/ha PM + two bags 15:15:15 N-P2O5-K2O/ha + one bag of SA. GMCDSS assessment has proved to be fundamental in: (1) urban planning; (2) ensuring food security; (3) poverty reduction and interventions to the effects of climate change and climate variability. 展开更多
关键词 Climate change food security GIS land suitability land use planning soil suitability.
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