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不确定度分析在电站锅炉效率计算中的应用 被引量:1
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作者 韩伟 刘慧超 《四川电力技术》 2012年第4期80-83,共4页
介绍了不确定度分析和评定的基本原理,建立锅炉效率计算中不确定度的分析数学模型方法,以及各个参数测量精度不确定度和偏差不确定度的计算方法,并以苏丹Garri-4纯烧石油焦锅炉为例,对锅炉热效率不确定度进行分析评定。
关键词 不确定 锅炉热效率 精度不确定 偏差不确定
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羊群效应与内幕信息的揭示分析 被引量:10
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作者 李平 曾勇 《管理工程学报》 CSSCI 2005年第2期46-49,共4页
本文用金融市场微观结构模型的序贯交易框架分析了证券市场上的多维不确定性怎样引起投资者的羊群交易行为。结论表明当市场上存在事件不确定和信息精度不确定时,投资者之间可能发生羊群行为,这种行为会导致内幕信息在一段时间内得不到... 本文用金融市场微观结构模型的序贯交易框架分析了证券市场上的多维不确定性怎样引起投资者的羊群交易行为。结论表明当市场上存在事件不确定和信息精度不确定时,投资者之间可能发生羊群行为,这种行为会导致内幕信息在一段时间内得不到有效揭示。做市商在发生羊群效应期间虽然只能判断出事件的存在性,而无法学习到内幕信息的好坏和精度,但他仍会继续调整资产的价格并最终结束羊群效应。 展开更多
关键词 市场微观结构 羊群效应 内幕信息 事件不确定 精度不确定
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量块双频激光干涉坐标测量系统的设计
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作者 姜志华 魏勇 《自动化仪表》 CAS 北大核心 2012年第7期29-31,35,共4页
目前,对于尺寸小于300 mm的四等及以下的非标称尺寸量块可以采用高精度万能测长仪测量,而对于尺寸大于300 mm的三等及以下非标称尺寸量块,则没有很好的测量方法。为此,提出了基于坐标测量机的双频激光干涉量块检定系统,对700 mm三等量... 目前,对于尺寸小于300 mm的四等及以下的非标称尺寸量块可以采用高精度万能测长仪测量,而对于尺寸大于300 mm的三等及以下非标称尺寸量块,则没有很好的测量方法。为此,提出了基于坐标测量机的双频激光干涉量块检定系统,对700 mm三等量块进行测量并对校准系统进行不确定度分析。通过与量块附带检定证书和JJG 146-2003量块检定规程的比对,验证了量块检定系统的准确性与可靠性。 展开更多
关键词 传感器信号采集系统量块检定测量精度不确定
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Land Cover Classification with Multi-source Data Using Evidential Reasoning Approach 被引量:3
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作者 LI Huapeng ZHANG Shuqing +1 位作者 SUN Yan GAO Jing 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2011年第3期312-321,共10页
Land cover classification is the core of converting satellite imagery to available geographic data.However,spectral signatures do not always provide enough information in classification decisions.Thus,the application ... Land cover classification is the core of converting satellite imagery to available geographic data.However,spectral signatures do not always provide enough information in classification decisions.Thus,the application of multi-source data becomes necessary.This paper presents an evidential reasoning (ER) approach to incorporate Landsat TM imagery,altitude and slope data.Results show that multi-source data contribute to the classification accuracy achieved by the ER method,whereas play a negative role to that derived by maximum likelihood classifier (MLC).In comparison to the results derived based on TM imagery alone,the overall accuracy rate of the ER method increases by 7.66% and that of the MLC method decreases by 8.35% when all data sources (TM plus altitude and slope) are accessible.The ER method is regarded as a better approach for multi-source image classification.In addition,the method produces not only an accurate classification result,but also the uncertainty which presents the inherent difficulty in classification decisions.The uncertainty associated to the ER classification image is evaluated and proved to be useful for improved classification accuracy. 展开更多
关键词 evidential reasoning Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence multi-source data geographic ancillary data land cover classification classification uncertainty
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Uncertainty Evaluation of Boar Fresh Semen Quality
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作者 付雪林 巫婷婷 +2 位作者 倪德斌 胡军勇 刘望宏 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2016年第6期1400-1404,共5页
According to JJF1059.2-2012 and CNAS-GL06, the measurement uncertainty of four indicators (semen volume, sperm motility and validity, progressive motility, abnormal sperm percentage) of boar fresh semen, as well as ... According to JJF1059.2-2012 and CNAS-GL06, the measurement uncertainty of four indicators (semen volume, sperm motility and validity, progressive motility, abnormal sperm percentage) of boar fresh semen, as well as its influencing factors, was analyzed. The results showed that the measurement uncertainty of semen volume and progressive motility caused by inspectors was low, and their measurement results reliability was high. There were small differences in measurement results of semen volume and progressive motility among inspectors. However, the measurement uncertainty of sperm motility and abnormal sperm percentage was relatively large, and great differences were found among different inspectors. Therefore, the training of inspectors' measuring sperm motility and abnormal sperm percentage should be strengthened, and the comparison of measurement results among inspectors should be performed in the future. 展开更多
关键词 Volume Sperm motility and validity Progressive motility Abnormal sperm percentage Uncertainty
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Constructing confidence intervals of extreme rainfall quantiles using Bayesian,bootstrap,and profile likelihood approaches 被引量:4
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作者 CHEN Si LI YaXing +1 位作者 SHIN JiYae KIM TaeWoong 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第4期573-585,共13页
Hydrological risk is highly dependent on the occurrence of extreme rainfalls.This fact has led to a wide range of studies on the estimation and uncertainty analysis of the extremes.In most cases,confidence intervals(C... Hydrological risk is highly dependent on the occurrence of extreme rainfalls.This fact has led to a wide range of studies on the estimation and uncertainty analysis of the extremes.In most cases,confidence intervals(CIs)are constructed to represent the uncertainty of the estimates.Since the accuracy of CIs depends on the asymptotic normality of the data and is questionable with limited observations in practice,a Bayesian highest posterior density(HPD)interval,bootstrap percentile interval,and profile likelihood(PL)interval have been introduced to analyze the uncertainty that does not depend on the normality assumption.However,comparison studies to investigate their performances in terms of the accuracy and uncertainty of the estimates are scarce.In addition,the strengths,weakness,and conditions necessary for performing each method also must be investigated.Accordingly,in this study,test experiments with simulations from varying parent distributions and different sample sizes were conducted.Then,applications to the annual maximum rainfall(AMR)time series data in South Korea were performed.Five districts with 38-year(1973–2010)AMR observations were fitted by the three aforementioned methods in the application.From both the experimental and application results,the Bayesian method is found to provide the lowest uncertainty of the design level while the PL estimates generally have the highest accuracy but also the largest uncertainty.The bootstrap estimates are usually inferior to the other two methods,but can perform adequately when the distribution model is not heavy-tailed and the sample size is large.The distribution tail behavior and the sample size are clearly found to affect the estimation accuracy and uncertainty.This study presents a comparative result,which can help researchers make decisions in the context of assessing extreme rainfall uncertainties. 展开更多
关键词 BAYESIAN BOOTSTRAP profile likelihood confidence interval frequency analysis
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