Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years.Climate change is most evident in the foothills;however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians,which reach approximately 350 meters, on average,what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.

人工智能还给人类的思维难题

当下人工智能的思维采用贝叶斯方法论,因此重新提出了经验论的问题。先验论对休谟因果问题的解决并不成功,贝叶斯方法另外给出了对休谟问题的经验论解决。休谟问题的核心是不确定的“未来”,人工智能将抽象的未来简化为可操作的“预测下一个标识”,在没有借助先验方法的条件下,成功地以贝叶斯方法去保证预测的有效性和可信度。这迫使我们去反思人类思维本身,重新思考经验论与先验论的经典难题。可以期待,如果发展一种属于经验论的动词逻辑,或可解释更多的思维秘密,也或可为人工智能增加一个分析和预测的维度。

Modeling the impacts of drying trend scenarios on land systems in northern China using an integrated SD and CA model

Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China.Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China,the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear.Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change.In this study,we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model(iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata.Then,we designed three drying trend scenarios(reversed drying trend,gradual drying trend,and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China.Finally,the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared.An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system.The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m3 among different drying trend scenarios,suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development.Under the pressures of climate change,water scarcity,and socioeconomic development,the ecotone(i.e.,transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change.Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends.Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe.The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment.In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China,issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use structure and patterns rationally,and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socioeconomic development together.

Global warming projections using the human–earth system model BNU-HESM1.0

Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission sce- narios designed by integrated assessment models （IAMs）, and this offline approach means there is no interaction between the coupled earth system models and the IAMs. This paper introduces a new method to design possible future emission scenarios and corresponding climate change, in which a simple economic and climate damage component is added to the coupled earth system model of Beijing Normal University （BNU-ESM）. With the growth of population and technological expertise and the declining emission-to-output ratio described in the Dynamic Inte- grated Climate-Economy model, the projected carbon emission is 13.7 Gt C, resulting in a 2.4℃ warming by the end of the twenty-first century （2080-2099） compared with 1980-1999. This paper also suggests the importance of the land and ocean carbon cycle in determining the CO2 con- centration in the atmosphere. It is hoped that in the near future the next generation of coupled earth system models that include both the natural system and the social dimension will be developed.