为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方...为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方案,并分析站点观测要素对数值预报模式的要素预报的影响。模拟试验数据使用了每6 h NCEP再分析资料FNL(NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data)、NCEP每天平均的高分辨率海温资料RTG_SST(Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature)和石油平台、浮标站等每小时实况观测资料,评估了黄渤海海洋气象站网布局各个方案的优缺点。评估结果表明,湿度和风的要素预报受实况风向风速条件影响,偏东和偏北风个例湿度要素预报较好。然而,在偏南中等风速个例中,风场预报要素更接近实况。温度场的分析综合结果显示,在海气相互作用影响较大的天气过程中,特征区域布站能明显提高温度要素的预报准确率。最后,综合分析多项模拟试验的结果,给出了改进数值预报准确率的海洋布站建议。展开更多
往返平飘式探空观测是我国研发的一种新型高空观测技术,除了具备与传统探空观测一致的上升段大气垂直廓线观测能力,同时还增加了平飘段和下降段的大气探测,自动实现了探测廓线的时空加密。利用ERA5再分析资料作为“真值”,利用往返平飘...往返平飘式探空观测是我国研发的一种新型高空观测技术,除了具备与传统探空观测一致的上升段大气垂直廓线观测能力,同时还增加了平飘段和下降段的大气探测,自动实现了探测廓线的时空加密。利用ERA5再分析资料作为“真值”,利用往返平飘式探空模拟仿真系统构造了往返式探空模拟观测,基于CMA-MESO区域模式和3D-Var同化系统进行了观测系统模拟试验(Observing System Simulation Experiments,OSSEs)。数值试验结果表明:相比传统单次上升段探空观测,往返平飘式探空在全国组网的情况下,其增加的下降段模拟探空观测,能够有效提高CMA-MESO的降水预报技巧,不同降水量级的ETS评分提高约2%~5%,同时改进要素场(温、湿场和风场)的预报,改进率约为2%~5%。此外,典型天气个例分析结果表明,增加往返平飘式探空观测能够改善模式初值偏差,从而更准确地模拟降水分布。该文的研究结论为往返平飘式探空的未来科学布局和应用提供了理论支撑。展开更多
利用基于集合预报的相关方法对2009年7月23日发生在北京及周边地区的暴雨过程的观测敏感区进行了分析。通过WRF(Weather Research Forecast)三维变分方法对初始场进行随机扰动,形成30个初始集合样本,做了预报时效为12 h的集合预报。利...利用基于集合预报的相关方法对2009年7月23日发生在北京及周边地区的暴雨过程的观测敏感区进行了分析。通过WRF(Weather Research Forecast)三维变分方法对初始场进行随机扰动,形成30个初始集合样本,做了预报时效为12 h的集合预报。利用该方法分析检验区(北京及周边地区)累积降水[14:00(北京时间,下同)至20:00]相对于初始时刻(08:00)各基本要素的敏感性,确定感性要素及其对应的区域。研究发现初步确定的敏感性要素为水汽和温度,对应的敏感区分别位于北京的西南侧和北京的东北侧,且通过实况分析可知初步确定的敏感性要素和对应的敏感区具有明确的物理意义。还进一步通过观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)的资料同化验证所确定的敏感区,结果表明在水汽对应的敏感区内同化水汽对降水的预报结果有明显的改进;在温度对应的敏感区内同化温度,降水的预报准确率有了明显的提高,说明了初步确定的敏感性要素和敏感区的正确性。在水汽对应的敏感区内同化水汽的同时在温度对应的敏感区内同化温度,使降水预报的技巧有大幅度的提高,说明了温度和水汽的共同作用对提高降水预报准确率贡献最大。因此,通过基于集合预报的相关方法能够快速的确定敏感区。研究结果将为确定北京暴雨的观测敏感区提供参考。展开更多
A model of nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in mesocosm experiments was established on the basis of a summary and synthesis of the existing models. The established model comprised seven state variables(DIN,PO4-P,DON,D...A model of nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in mesocosm experiments was established on the basis of a summary and synthesis of the existing models. The established model comprised seven state variables(DIN,PO4-P,DON,DOP,phytoplankton,zooplankton and detritus) and five modules - phytoplankton,zooplankton,dissolved inorganic nutrients,dissolved organic nutrients and detritus. Comparison with the in situ experimental data in Laizhou Bay at the end of August 2002 showed that this model could properly simulate the variations of DIN,PO4-P,and phytoplankton biomass in a mesocosm pelagic ecosystem. It was found that not only the model structure but also the parameters adopted were fit for simulation. The sensitivity of the main state variables to the parameter change was assessed by sensitivity analysis. All these results are useful for studying the control mechanism of biogeochemical cycling of nutrients in Laizhou Bay and other Chinese coastal waters.展开更多
To explore the spatial-temporal evolution law of rock mass temperature in high geothermal roadway during mechar^ical ventilation, a series of experiments were conducted based on the physical simulation test system of ...To explore the spatial-temporal evolution law of rock mass temperature in high geothermal roadway during mechar^ical ventilation, a series of experiments were conducted based on the physical simulation test system of thermal and humid environment in high geothermal roadway, which is a method independently developed by China University of Mining and Technology. The results indicate that during ventilation, the disturbed region of the temperature extends gradually from shallow area to deep area in the surrounding rock mass of the roadway. Meanwhile, the temperature increases as the exponential function from shallow area to deep, with steady decrease of the temperature gradient and heat flux. As the ventilation proceeds, the relationship between dimensionless temperature and dimensionless time approximately meets Hill function.展开更多
An integral effect test for a MSLB （main stem line break） was performed with the ATLAS （advanced thermal-hydraulic test loop for accident simulation） by KAERI （Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute）. A MSLB is ...An integral effect test for a MSLB （main stem line break） was performed with the ATLAS （advanced thermal-hydraulic test loop for accident simulation） by KAERI （Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute）. A MSLB is defined as a pipe break in the main steam system. This data was used to validate the safety analysis code SPACE （safety and performance analysis code for nuclear power plants）. In the test, a double-ended guillotined break of the main steam line was simulated. After steady-state was reached, the test was started by opening the break simulation valves. With the start of the test, the pressure of the secondary system decreased rapidly, and reached the set-point of the LSGP （low steam generator pressure） signal. With the occurrence of the LSGP signal, the main steam isolation valves were closed. The SIPs （safety injection pumps） were started by the LPP （low pressurizer pressure） signal. In order to validate the SPACE code, a double-ended guillotine break of the main steam line at ATLAS was simulated. Most of the results show good agreement between the experiment data and the code calculated values.展开更多
文摘为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方案,并分析站点观测要素对数值预报模式的要素预报的影响。模拟试验数据使用了每6 h NCEP再分析资料FNL(NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data)、NCEP每天平均的高分辨率海温资料RTG_SST(Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature)和石油平台、浮标站等每小时实况观测资料,评估了黄渤海海洋气象站网布局各个方案的优缺点。评估结果表明,湿度和风的要素预报受实况风向风速条件影响,偏东和偏北风个例湿度要素预报较好。然而,在偏南中等风速个例中,风场预报要素更接近实况。温度场的分析综合结果显示,在海气相互作用影响较大的天气过程中,特征区域布站能明显提高温度要素的预报准确率。最后,综合分析多项模拟试验的结果,给出了改进数值预报准确率的海洋布站建议。
文摘往返平飘式探空观测是我国研发的一种新型高空观测技术,除了具备与传统探空观测一致的上升段大气垂直廓线观测能力,同时还增加了平飘段和下降段的大气探测,自动实现了探测廓线的时空加密。利用ERA5再分析资料作为“真值”,利用往返平飘式探空模拟仿真系统构造了往返式探空模拟观测,基于CMA-MESO区域模式和3D-Var同化系统进行了观测系统模拟试验(Observing System Simulation Experiments,OSSEs)。数值试验结果表明:相比传统单次上升段探空观测,往返平飘式探空在全国组网的情况下,其增加的下降段模拟探空观测,能够有效提高CMA-MESO的降水预报技巧,不同降水量级的ETS评分提高约2%~5%,同时改进要素场(温、湿场和风场)的预报,改进率约为2%~5%。此外,典型天气个例分析结果表明,增加往返平飘式探空观测能够改善模式初值偏差,从而更准确地模拟降水分布。该文的研究结论为往返平飘式探空的未来科学布局和应用提供了理论支撑。
文摘利用基于集合预报的相关方法对2009年7月23日发生在北京及周边地区的暴雨过程的观测敏感区进行了分析。通过WRF(Weather Research Forecast)三维变分方法对初始场进行随机扰动,形成30个初始集合样本,做了预报时效为12 h的集合预报。利用该方法分析检验区(北京及周边地区)累积降水[14:00(北京时间,下同)至20:00]相对于初始时刻(08:00)各基本要素的敏感性,确定感性要素及其对应的区域。研究发现初步确定的敏感性要素为水汽和温度,对应的敏感区分别位于北京的西南侧和北京的东北侧,且通过实况分析可知初步确定的敏感性要素和对应的敏感区具有明确的物理意义。还进一步通过观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)的资料同化验证所确定的敏感区,结果表明在水汽对应的敏感区内同化水汽对降水的预报结果有明显的改进;在温度对应的敏感区内同化温度,降水的预报准确率有了明显的提高,说明了初步确定的敏感性要素和敏感区的正确性。在水汽对应的敏感区内同化水汽的同时在温度对应的敏感区内同化温度,使降水预报的技巧有大幅度的提高,说明了温度和水汽的共同作用对提高降水预报准确率贡献最大。因此,通过基于集合预报的相关方法能够快速的确定敏感区。研究结果将为确定北京暴雨的观测敏感区提供参考。
基金supported by the the State Ocean Ad-ministration of China ‘908’ Foundation (No. 908-02-02- 03)the State Ocean Administration of China Foundation (No. 200805065)+1 种基金the Scientific Research Launching Foundation for Introduced Talents of Ocean University of Chinathe Scientific and Technical Projects of Shandong Province on Environmental Protection (No. [2006]050)
文摘A model of nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in mesocosm experiments was established on the basis of a summary and synthesis of the existing models. The established model comprised seven state variables(DIN,PO4-P,DON,DOP,phytoplankton,zooplankton and detritus) and five modules - phytoplankton,zooplankton,dissolved inorganic nutrients,dissolved organic nutrients and detritus. Comparison with the in situ experimental data in Laizhou Bay at the end of August 2002 showed that this model could properly simulate the variations of DIN,PO4-P,and phytoplankton biomass in a mesocosm pelagic ecosystem. It was found that not only the model structure but also the parameters adopted were fit for simulation. The sensitivity of the main state variables to the parameter change was assessed by sensitivity analysis. All these results are useful for studying the control mechanism of biogeochemical cycling of nutrients in Laizhou Bay and other Chinese coastal waters.
基金Project(2014-6121)supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,ChinaProject(51504236)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions,China
文摘To explore the spatial-temporal evolution law of rock mass temperature in high geothermal roadway during mechar^ical ventilation, a series of experiments were conducted based on the physical simulation test system of thermal and humid environment in high geothermal roadway, which is a method independently developed by China University of Mining and Technology. The results indicate that during ventilation, the disturbed region of the temperature extends gradually from shallow area to deep area in the surrounding rock mass of the roadway. Meanwhile, the temperature increases as the exponential function from shallow area to deep, with steady decrease of the temperature gradient and heat flux. As the ventilation proceeds, the relationship between dimensionless temperature and dimensionless time approximately meets Hill function.
文摘An integral effect test for a MSLB （main stem line break） was performed with the ATLAS （advanced thermal-hydraulic test loop for accident simulation） by KAERI （Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute）. A MSLB is defined as a pipe break in the main steam system. This data was used to validate the safety analysis code SPACE （safety and performance analysis code for nuclear power plants）. In the test, a double-ended guillotined break of the main steam line was simulated. After steady-state was reached, the test was started by opening the break simulation valves. With the start of the test, the pressure of the secondary system decreased rapidly, and reached the set-point of the LSGP （low steam generator pressure） signal. With the occurrence of the LSGP signal, the main steam isolation valves were closed. The SIPs （safety injection pumps） were started by the LPP （low pressurizer pressure） signal. In order to validate the SPACE code, a double-ended guillotine break of the main steam line at ATLAS was simulated. Most of the results show good agreement between the experiment data and the code calculated values.
