城市生态环境规划的原理与模拟探析

在剖析城市演化历程中的功能变迁与导引的生态环境滞胀类型和危害的基础上 ,着重利用系统生态学的原理和方法 ,探讨了可持续发展要求下的城市生态环境规划的目标、原理和研究的内容、方法及过程 ;提出了以产业结构、土地利用结构和空间格局的调整为核心制定城市生态环境规划的总体思路 ;创造性地融大气扩散、雨水沉降和植被吸纳SO2 ,NOx 及TSP等污染物模型与经济、人口和碳氧平衡等模型于一体 ,构建了案例城市广州的生态环境综合调控模型 ,并借助DY NAMO语言模拟得到了广州市未来生态环境规划的优化方案。

Dynamics models of soil organic carbon

As the largest pool of terrestrial organic carbon, soils interact strongly with atmosphere composition, climate, and land change. Soil organic carbon dynamics in ecosystem plays a great role in global carbon cycle and global change. With development of mathematical models that simulate changes in soil organic carbon, there have been considerable advances in understanding soil organic carbon dynamics. This paper mainly reviewed the composition of soil organic matter and its influenced factors, and recommended some soil organic matter models worldwide. Based on the analyses of the developed results at home and abroad, it is suggested that future soil organic matter models should be developed toward based-process models, and not always empirical ones. The models are able to reveal their interaction between soil carbon systems, climate and land cover by technique and methods of GIS (Geographical Information System) and RS (Remote Sensing). These models should be developed at a global scale, in dynamically describing the spatial and temporal changes of soil organic matter cycle. Meanwhile, the further researches on models should be strengthen for providing theory basis and foundation in making policy of green house gas emission in China.

SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios, and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment can be realized.

A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay

Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.

Modeling the Effects of Nutrient Dynamics and Surface Circulation on the Productivity of Hooghly Estuary

River estuarine environment plays a key role in the cycling of biological and chemical parameters and a significant region for the transaction of freshwater and seawater. In the present study, a first attempt has been made towards the development of a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic circulation model with four compartment （nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus） biogeochemical model in the Hooghly estuary （21 °36′-22° 16′1 and 87°42＇-88°15′E） to simulate the varying effect of plankton biomass with the heavy input of anthropogenic litter from industrial effluents of Haldia port which is effecting the chemical and biological processes that control the plankton dynamics in the estuary. In-situ observational data for physico-chemical and biological parameters are collected from Calcutta University during 2010 are assimilated using multiscale OA （objective analysis） for different seasons and incorporated in ROMS （Regional Ocean Modeling System） to develop a high resolution （0.5 km x 0.5 kin） biogeochemical model. Recent analysis on physico-chemical parameters of the estuary is done as it is one of the largest estuaries in India and is the habitat for vast biodiversity. Influence of high nitrate （above 34 μg/L） and phosphate （5.22 μg/L） is predominant whereas DO （dissolved oxygen） is low （4.07 mg/L） in the Haldi River mouth which is sliding the productivity （less than 1 mg/L） and also affects water quality.

A system dynamics approach for studying the resilience of irrigation systems

One of the most interesting outcomes from the recent collaboration between natural and social scientists is the concept of resilience, which imported from engineering to ecology. The problem with that concept is that it is hard if not impossible to get simple measures for resilience as far as social-ecological systems are complex ones. Using a system dynamics model, the author shows that, for assessing resilience of systems like irrigation systems, it probably helps to see the process of resilience loss as a systemic one, in which dynamics is given by positive self-reinforcing loops, like the one we have labeled in this paper--the death spiral. The author also presents a list of symptoms of collapse in irrigation systems, in order to assess the resilience of those systems, and suggest some future avenues of research on the subject.

Visualizing Patterns of Genetic Landscapes and Species Distribution of Taxus wallichiana(Taxaceae),Based on GIS and Ecological Niche Models

The Chinese yew（Taxus wallichiana）,which is widely distributed in the Himalayas and in southern China,is now on the edge of extinction.In order to understand the evolutionary processes that control the current diversity within this species at the genetic and ecological levels,its genetic patterns and range dynamics must first be identified and mapped.This knowledge can then be applied in the development of an effective conservation strategy.Based on molecular data obtained from 48 populations of T.wallichiana,we used GIS-based interpolation approach for the explicit visualization of patterns of genetic divergence and diversity,and a number of potential evolutionary hotspots have been specifically identified within the genetic landscape maps.Within the maps of genetic divergence and diversity,five areas of high inter-population genetic divergence and six areas of high intra-population genetic diversity have been highlighted in a number of separate mountain regions,and these evolutionary hotspots should have the priority to be protected.Furthermore,four geographical barriers have been identified： the eastern Himalayas,the Yunnan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains and the Taiwan Strait.According to ecological niche modeling（ENM）,the populations of T.wallichiana within the Sino-Himalayan Forest floristic subkingdom experienced westward expansion from the periods of Last Inter-glacial to Last Glacial Maximum（LGM）.Following the LGM,the distribution range overall became reduced and fragmented.These findings challenge the classic mode of contraction-expansion in response to the last glaciation.In conclusion,our findings suggest that the changes in geographical landscapes and climate that occurred during the Quaternary resulted in current genetic landscape patterns.

Comparative phylogeography and niche modeling for three species complexes of SE China （Paradoxornis spp., Pycnonotus spp., Spizixos spp.）

Contrasting multiple organisms with similar contemporary distributions, researchers can identify shared evolutionary patterns and provide historical context for community composition. We used three species complexes with overlapping distributions in Southeastern China and surrounding islands to explore the phylogeographic history of the region. Despite similar geographic distributions, genetic data revealed few congruent patterns, but all complexes displayed genetic divergence for Taiwan Residents populations. Additionally, niche modeling and divergence dating did not find support for diversification associated with the Last Glacial Maximum [Current Zoology 61 （5）： 943-950,2015].

Bifurcation behaviors analysis of a plankton model with multiple delays

A mathematical model describing the dynamics of toxin producing phytoplankton- zooplankton interaction with instantaneous nutrient recycling is proposed. We have explored the dynamics of plankton ecosystem with multiple delays; one due to gestation period in the growth of phytoplankton population and second due to the delay in toxin liberated by TPP. It is established that a sequence of Hopf bifurcations occurs at the interior equilibrium as the delay increases through its critical value. The direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined using the theory of normal form and center manifold. Meanwhile, effect of toxin on the stability of delayed plankton system is also established numerically. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support and supplement the analytical findings.