一种事故致因系统论模型:认知-约束模型

为进一步完善事故致因理论,提供现代复杂系统事故预防新对策,从点—线—面—体的角度分析了事故致因理论的发展历程,给出了发展新一代事故致因系统论模型的基本要求,提出了一种面向现代复杂系统事故成因与演化分析的认知-约束模型,并分析了模型的广义内涵、内在机制和应用步骤。该认知-约束模型涵盖了事故的事前预防、事中控制、事后分析全过程,是系统论、信息论和控制论的高度统一,对于现代复杂系统的事故预防具有重要意义。

基于系统论事故致因模型的烟台港西港区大型船舶靠泊风险识别及对策

基于系统论事故致因模型的“人-机-环-管”理论,探讨大型船舶靠泊过程中的危险源识别及风险控制,“人、机(船)、环、管”因素各自影响并共同作用于船舶靠泊风险,从上述因素着手进行风险分析管控,总结出烟台港西港区大型船舶靠泊的风险规避策略,降低船舶靠泊风险。

系统论视域下浅析“唱”在钢琴弹奏中的作用

本文在系统论的角度下把"唱"和钢琴弹奏视为互相促进相辅相成的统一体,提出"唱"与钢琴弹奏的系统论模型。在该模型中"唱"可提升演奏者的情绪刺激效价强度,可调节演奏者的外倾个体注意,同时演奏者的演奏又可以给"唱"传达正性情绪反馈,"唱"可在"音乐内容表达"、"视奏与背谱"、"乐曲呼吸与踏板"和"伴奏与声乐的融合"四个方面对钢琴弹奏起到提升与促进作用。

复杂社会技术系统下的重大道路客运事故致因分析

为预防道路客运系统事故的发生,采用基于系统理论的Accimap模型分析重大道路客运事故.首先分析道路客运系统特征,明确道路客运系统事故构成要素;其后基于Rasmussen风险管理理论建立道路客运系统层次体系,包含宏观政府层、地方政府及运管部门层、运输企业层、运输系统人员层及生产及技术资源层5个层次.以京昆“8·10”特别重大事故为例,建立道路客运事故Accimap模型,识别出40项事故致因并分析其交互路径.结果表明:事故发生是系统多层次、多维度因素失衡且耦合作用的结果,可基于竖向整合思想,采取系统性的干预和控制手段以预防事故发生;此外,Accimap模型可深入挖掘我国道路客运事故致因间相互关系,分析结果及提出的建议更具针对性.

医学整体论思想对系统论事故致因模型的指导探究

为弥补系统论事故模型在事故分析时缺乏整体论思想指导的缺陷,提出以中国医学成熟的整体施治思想指导系统论事故模型进行事故分析。本文首先论证了复杂社会技术系统研究与有机生命研究的密切联系,在此基础上探讨了事故研究与疾病研究的对应关系,结果表明现阶段系统论事故模型对事故的认识处于灰箱阶段,基于中国医学整体施治的治疗思想可有效指导当下的事故致因探究。其后参考中国医学辨证施治的疾病认知与处置过程,建立了四个层次的事故分析流程及对应的事后防控原则,可为系统论事故模型的实际应用提供参考。

Study on the Yield Prediction Model of Processing Tomato Based on the Grey System Theory

[Objective] The research aimed to study the yield prediction model of processing tomato based on the grey system theory.[Method] The variation trend of processing tomato yield was studied by using the grey system theory,and GM（1,1）grey model of processing tomato yield prediction was established.The processing tomato yield in Xinjiang during 2001-2009 was as the example to carry out the instance analysis.[Result] The model had the high forecast accuracy and strong generalization ability,and was reliable for the prediction of recent processing tomato yield.[Conclusion] The research provided the reference for the macro-control of tomato industry,the processing and storage of tomato in Xinjiang.

经济后果三分法:内涵与启示

本文提出自己的经济后果观及其“三分法”;分析了经济后果观对准则制定的一个启示;在此基础上构建了基于经济后果观的系统论理论模型,并阐述了其内涵及其运用;文章认为,经济后果可以分为“零经济后果”、“正经济后果”和“负经济后果”,这种划分有利于问题分析的深入,系统论理论模型的提出有利于在准则制定过程中切实贯彻“经济后果”思想提供了思维导向,从而不断完善我国会计准则制定。

Modelling and stability analysis of emergent behavior of scalable swarm system

In this paper we propose a two-layer emergent model for scalable swarm system. The first layer describes the indi-vidual flocking behavior to the local goal position (the center of minimal circumcircle decided by the neighbors in the positive visual set of individuals) resulting from the individual motion to one or two farthest neighbors in its positive visual set; the second layer describes the emergent aggregating swarm behavior resulting from the individual motion to its local goal position. The scale of the swarm will not be limited because only local individual information is used for modelling in the two-layer topology. We study the stability properties of the swarm emergent behavior based on Lyapunov stability theory. Simulations showed that the swarm system can converge to goal regions while maintaining cohesiveness.

Application of the Grey topological method to predict the effects of ship pitching

Ship motion,with six degrees of freedom,is a complex stochastic process.Sea wind and waves are the primary influencing factors.Prediction of ship motion is significant for ship navigation.To eliminate errors,a path prediction model incorporating ship pitching was developed using the Gray topological method,after analyzing ship pitching motions.With the help of simple introduction to Gray system theory,we selected a group of threshold values.Based on an analysis of ship pitch angle sequences over 40 second intervals,a Grey metabolism GM(1,1) model was established according to the time-series which every threshold corresponded to.Forecasting future ship motion with the GM(1,1) model allowed drawing of the forecast curve with effective forecasting points.The precision of the test results show that the model is accurate,and the forecast results are reliable.

Design and Analysis of Integrated Predictive Iterative Learning Control for Batch Process Based on Two-dimensional System Theory

Based on the two-dimensional （2D） system theory, an integrated predictive iterative learning control （2D-IPILC） strategy for batch processes is presented. First, the output response and the error transition model predictions along the batch index can be calculated analytically due to the 2D Roesser model of the batch process. Then, an integrated framework of combining iterative learning control （ILC） and model predictive control （MPC） is formed reasonably. The output of feedforward ILC is estimated on the basis of the predefined process 2D model. By min- imizing a quadratic objective function, the feedback MPC is introduced to obtain better control performance for tracking problem of batch processes. Simulations on a typical batch reactor demonstrate that the satisfactory tracking performance as well as faster convergence speed can be achieved than traditional proportion type （P- t-we） ILC despite the model error and disturbances.

Clock-based RAIM method and its application in GPS receiver positioning

Because the signals of global positioning system （GPS） satellites are susceptible to obstructions in urban environment with many high buildings around, the number of GPS useful satellites is usually less than six. In this case, the receiver autonomous integrity monitoring （RAIM） method earmot exclude faulty satellite. In order to improve the performance of RAIM method and obtain the reliable positioning results with five satellites, the series of receiver clock bias （RCB） is regarded as one useful satellite and used to aid RAIM method. From the point of nonlinear series, a grey-Markov model for predicting the RCB series based on grey theory and Markov chain is presented. And then the model is used for aiding RAIM method in order to exclude faulty satellite. Experimental results demonstrate that the prediction model is fit for predicting the RCB series, and with the clock-based RAIM method the faulty satellite can be correctly excluded and the positioning precision of GPS receiver can be improved for the case where there are only five useful satellites.

Using Grey System Theory for Earthquake Forecast

By combining conventional grey correlation analysis, grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing, we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper. Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995, we forecast future earthquakes in Japan. We develop an earthquake forecast model. By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984, we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models. We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast. We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast. We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.

Control of acrobot based on Lyapunov function

Fuzzy control based on Lyapunov function was employed to control the posture and the energy of an (acrobot) to make the transition from upswing control to balance control smoothly and stably. First, a control law based on Lyapunov function was used to control the angle and the angular velocity of the second link towards zero when the energy of the acrobot reaches the potential energy at the unstable straight-up equilibrium position in the upswing process. The controller based on Lyapunov function makes the second link straighten nature relatively to the first link. At the same time, a fuzzy controller was designed to regulate the parameters of the upper control law to keep the change of the energy of the acrobot to a minimum, so that the switching from (upswing) to balance can be properly carried out and the acrobot can enter the balance quickly. The results of simulation show that the switching from upswing to balance can be completed smoothly, and the control effect of the acrobot is improved greatly.

Novel grey forecast model and its application

The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load fore-cast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load fore-cast. However, they make big errors for medium or long-term load forecasts, and the load that does not satisfythe approximate exponential increasing law in particular. A novel grey forecast model that is capable of distin-guishing the increasing law of load is adopted to forecast electric power consumption (EPC) of Shanghai. Theresults show that this model can be used to greatly improve the forecast precision of EPC for a secondary industryor the whole society.

Vortex Channel Modelling for the Radio Vortex System

In this paper, a free-space vortex channel model of the radio vortex system is proposed to describe the propagation characteristics of vortex signals over the vortex channel. The key idea is to combine the Laguerre-Gaussian(LG) modes in the optical field with the free-space propagation model in the radio field. The proposed free-space vortex channel model is derived from the electric field expression of the LG modes and the freespace channel transfer function of the freespace propagation model theoretically. Simulation results verify that the proposed model could reflect the vortex channel characteristics better than the currently used free-space propagation model.

Design and dynamic simulation of hydraulic system of a new automatic transmission

A new hydraulic system of a novel automatic transmission (AT) was designed. The dimension and structure of valves and cylinders were designed by theoretical calculation. The dynamic simulation model of hydraulic system of AT was established by ITI-SimulationX. Simulation results and theoretical design results were compared to confirm the simulation model. Based on the confirmed simulation model, the simulation results of pressure and flow of the hydraulic system were analyzed. The dynamic simulation method is very helpful for designing and analyzing the performance of hydraulic system and further optimization design. The theoretical design method and dynamic simulation model are feasible for the real industrial applications. The research results can be used in hydraulic system design and optimization.

Mean-Field Studies of a Mixed Spin-3/2 and Spin-2 and a Mixed Spin-3/2 and Spin-5/2 Ising System with Different Anisotropies

The magnetic properties of a mixed spin-3/2 and spin-2 and a mixed spin-3/2 and spin-5/2 Ising ferromag- netic system with different anisotropies are studied by means of mean-field theory （MFT）. The dependence of the phase diagram on single-ion anisotropy strengths is studied too. In the mixed spin-3/2 and spin-2 Ising model, besides the second-order phase transition, the first order-disorder phase transition and the tricritical line are found. In the mixed spin-3/2 and spin-5/2 Ising model, there is no first-order transition and trieritical line.

Prediction of the maximum water inflow in Pingdingshan No.8 mine based on grey system theory

In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new initial GM（1, 1） model is not ideal by the concrete example. Then according to the principle of making the sum of the squares of the difference between the calculated sequences and the original sequences, an optimized GM（1, I） model was established. The result shows that this method is a new prediction method which can predict the maximum water inflow accurately. It not only conforms to the guide- line of prevention primarily, but also provides reference standards to managers on making prevention measures.

Hazard Mitigation through a Systemic Model of Accident to a Socio-Technical System： A Case Study

This paper presents the STAMP （system-theoretic accident modeling and processes） accident model, based on systems theory, and describes its application in the context of risk prevention related to the remediation of contaminated sediments. The implementation of the model is described, and results are presented both in methodological and technical terms. The goal of this article is to emphasize the need of new approaches to take into account hazards and accidents within socio-technical systems.

At the intersection of science and theory: How the Nurse Role Integration Model reconciles the conflict

As more nurses embrace precision science,there is a tendency to utilize theoretical frameworks from other disciplines thus,placing nursing at risk of losing its autonomy and independence.The discipline has fallen prey to internal binary opposition,eliminating opportunities to engage in civil discourse.To explore how the roles nurses select might fit together in a theoretical framework and help nurses understand how the roles they choose to support their identity as nurses,this paper introduced a model of nursing that includes the bench scientists,the policy activists,and bedside nurses,using the Neuman Systems Model(NSM).The Nurse Role Integration Model(NRIM)espouses the basic tenets of NSM:prevention counteracts stressors from penetrating the client's lines of defense thus,reducing stress response.Primary prevention reflects the work of the nurse bench scientists,investigating the underlying mechanisms behind pathophysiology;secondary prevention is applied nurse scientists who build upon nurse researchers'work,identifying and testing potential interventions;tertiary prevention is nurse policy activists,the fulcrum,who leverage primary and secondary findings to argue policy change at all levels.Once policy change is adopted,bedside nurses are educated and implement the change.This lens provides an opportunity to create greater solidarity,strengthening the unity and autonomy of the discipline.