Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing ...Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 (AM2) with projected sea surface temperature (SST) trend. A total of two SST trends from the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) AlB are used. The two trends are from two coupled climate system models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 (CCSM3) and the GFDL Climate Model Version 2.0 (CM2), respectively. Results consistently suggest a substantial warming and drying trend over much of China, with a surface air temperature increase of 1.0-2.0℃ and a 10%-20% decrease in rainfall. Exceptions are the areas from northwestern China to western North China as well as the southern Tibetan Plateau, which are projected to be wetter with a rainfall anomaly percentage increase of 10%-50%. The drying in eastern North China has not been documented to date but appears to be reasonable. Physically, it is attributed to anomalous northeasterly winds at the rear of a low-level cyclone over the South China Sea, the Philippines and the subtropical western North Pacific. These conditions, which govern the climate of eastern China, are forced by the northward shift of convection over warm waters due to additional warming.展开更多
The controversy between the IPCC and Non-governmental IPCC(NIPCC) on the attribution of global warming are reviewed.IPCC holds that today's global warming is mainly due to anthropogenic activities rather than natu...The controversy between the IPCC and Non-governmental IPCC(NIPCC) on the attribution of global warming are reviewed.IPCC holds that today's global warming is mainly due to anthropogenic activities rather than natural variability,which is emphasized by NIPCC.The surface temperature observations since the mid-20th century support the hypothesis of anthropogenic impact,but for the last one hundred years or so,natural forcings such as solar activity, volcanic eruptions and thermohaline circulation variations also have had great influences on the Earth's climate,especially on inter-decadal timescales.In addition,evidence suggests that the Medieval Warm Period(MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are closely associated with the solar activity over the past 1 thousand years.Over the past 10 thousand years, the North Atlantic cold events and solar activity are closely correlated.Nevertheless,the physical mechanisms of the solar-climate variability and interrelation are not well understood,yet.Notably,a prevailing view recently indicates that galactic cosmic rays may result in climatic cooling through modulating global low cloud cover.However,its process and mechanism need to be further investigated.展开更多
The general characteristics of climate changes over the past 2000 years in China,regional differences and uncertainties were analyzed based on the recently peer-reviewed high time-resolution climatic reconstructions.T...The general characteristics of climate changes over the past 2000 years in China,regional differences and uncertainties were analyzed based on the recently peer-reviewed high time-resolution climatic reconstructions.The results showed that there exists four warm periods of the temperature variation in China since the Qin Dynasty,including the western and eastern Han Dynasties(200 BC-AD 180),the Sui and Tang dynasties(541-810),the Song and Yuan dynasties(931-1320),and the 20th century,and three cold phases involving the Wei,Jin,and North-South Dynasties(181-540),the late Tang Dynasty(811-930),and the Ming and Qing dynasties(1321-1920).The Song and Yuan warm period is consistent with the Medieval Warm Period over the Northern Hemisphere,and the cold phases of the North-South Dynasties and the Ming and Qing dynasties are paralleled to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age,respectively.The 13th-15th century could be a shift to the wet condition of the climate,and the low precipitation variability is exhibited in western China prior to 1500.In the context of the climate warming,the pattern of the drought in north and flood in south is prevalent over the eastern China.In addition,the published reconstructions have a high level of confidence for the past 500 years,but large uncertainties exist prior to the 16th century.展开更多
A Permian-Triassic(P-Tr) boundary section of continuous carbonate facies, which well recorded the biotic and environmental processes through the great P-Tr transition in the shallow non-microbialite carbonate facies, ...A Permian-Triassic(P-Tr) boundary section of continuous carbonate facies, which well recorded the biotic and environmental processes through the great P-Tr transition in the shallow non-microbialite carbonate facies, has been studied in Yangou, Leping County, Jiangxi Province. The P-Tr sequence is well correlated with the Meishan section according to the conodont biostratigraphy and the excursion of carbon isotopes. A series of high-resolution thin-sections from the P-Tr boundary carbonate rocks at the Yangou section are studied to explore the interrelation between environmental change and biological evolution during the transitional time. Six microfacies have been identified based upon the observation of the thin-sections under a microscope on the grains and matrix and their interrelation. Combined with the data of fossils and carbon isotopes, Microfacies 4(MF-4), coated-grain-bearing foraminifer oolitic sparitic limestone, and Microfacies 6(MF-6), dark shelly micritic limestone, should be the different responses to the two episodes of mass extinction and environmental events that can be correlated throughout South China and even over the world. The oolitic limestone of MF-4 is the first finding from the latest Permian strata in South China and it might be a proxy of an unusual environmental condition of high pCO2, low sulfate concentration and of microbial blooming in the aftermath of the latest Permian mass extinction. The micritic limestone of MF-6 containing rich micro-gastropods and ostracods probably represents the blooming event of disaster taxa in the earliest Triassic environment. The microfacies analysis at the Yangou section can well reveal the episodic process of the biological evolution and environmental change in the shallow non-microbialite carbonate facies throughout the great P-Tr transition, thus the Yangou section becomes an important complement to the Meishan section.展开更多
A high resolution record of sea-ice concentration on the North Icelandic shelf during the last millennium has been reconstructed using a diatom-based sea-ice transfer function. The reconstructed sea-ice record for the...A high resolution record of sea-ice concentration on the North Icelandic shelf during the last millennium has been reconstructed using a diatom-based sea-ice transfer function. The reconstructed sea-ice record for the top of sediment core MD99–2275 exhibits a slightly increasing trend over the last 1000 years. Prior to AD 1300 sea-ice abundance was generally below the mean value, suggesting the strong influence of warm waters from the Irminger Current during the Medieval Warm Period. A marked increase of sea-ice concentration indicates an abrupt change to colder conditions after AD 1300, corresponding to the onset of the Little Ice Age. The agreement between the reconstructed sea-ice concentration and IP25 data obtained from the same core, as well as with historical records of Icelandic sea ice, suggests that diatoms may provide a valuable tool for future quantitative reconstructions of past sea-ice variability. In addition, agreement between changes in the reconstructed sea-ice record and variations in the abundance of the major diatom components indicates that sea-ice conditions on the North Icelandic shelf are generally strongly influenced by changes in the strength of two different water masses, the cold Polar water periodically derived from the East Greenland Current and the warm Irminger Current derived from the North Atlantic Current. Our proxy evidence also indicates that variations in solar activity have a considerable impact on ocean dynamics, which in turn affects sea-ice abundance.展开更多
Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth...Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,to investigate the contributions of climate forcings(e.g.solar insolation variability,anomalous volcanic aerosols,greenhouse gas,solar orbital change,land cover changes,and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) to surface air temperature over East China in the past millennium.The simulation of the UVic Model could reproduce the three main characteristic periods(e.g.the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the 20th Century Warming Period(20CWP)) of the northern hemisphere and East China,which were consistent with the corresponding reconstructed air temperatures at century scales.The simulation result reflected that the air temperature anomalies of East China were larger than those of the global air temperature during the MWP and the first half of 20CWP and were lower than those during the LIA.The surface air temperature of East China over the past millennium has been divided into three periods in the MWP,four in the LIA,and one in the 20CWP.The MWP of East China was caused primarily by solar insolation and secondarily by volcanic aerosols.The variation of the LIA was dominated by the individual sizes of the contribution of solar insolation variability,greenhouse gas,and volcano aerosols.Greenhouse gas and volcano aerosols were the main forcings of the third and fourth periods of the LIA,respectively.We examined the nonlinear responses among the natural and anthropogenic forcings in terms of surface air temperature over East China.The nonlinear responses between the solar orbit change and anomalous volcano aerosols and those between the greenhouse gases and land cover change(or anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) all contributed approximately 0.2℃ by the end of 20th century.However,the output of the energy-moisture balance atmospheric model from UVic showed no obvious nonlinear responses between anthropogenic and natural forcings.The nonlinear responses among all the climate forcings(both anthropogenic and natural forcings) contributed to a temperature increase of approximately 0.27℃ at the end of the 20th century,accounting for approximately half of the warming during this period;the remainder was due to the climate forcings themselves.展开更多
On the north piedmont of Tianshan Mountains, China, the Kuytun River and Manas River transverse the Dushanzi and Manas folds, resulted in 7-level and 6-level pedestal terraces, respectively, which are the tectonomorph...On the north piedmont of Tianshan Mountains, China, the Kuytun River and Manas River transverse the Dushanzi and Manas folds, resulted in 7-level and 6-level pedestal terraces, respectively, which are the tectonomorphic marks of folding and uplift of the Dushanzi and Manas anticlines since the late Quaternary. We have collected samples from deposits of all terraces for OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) geological dating using the SMAR (single-multiple-aliquot-regeneration) method on fine grains. We have also performed dating using the ~4C method on the samples from the deposit of terrace T1 along the Kuy- tun River. The results show that all these deposits are of the later phase of the late Pleistocene. Comparison of terrace dating and climate change since 200 ka suggests that the terraces TI, T2, T3, T4 and T5 along the Manas River formed in 6, 8.5, 10, 14 and 32 ka, respectively. The incision time of Kuitun River's T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6 and T7 terraces were 1.7, 14, 20, 25, 32 50 and 100 ka years ago, respectively. The terrace T4 along the Manas River and T2 along the Kuytun River were formed dur- ing the late part of the late Pleistocene, i.e., 14 ka. Since 14 ka, the incision of the Manas River has generated three levels of pedestal terraces, while that of the Kuytun River has only produced one level of such terraces. The latest folding and uplift of the Dushanzi anticline took place in 1.7 ka, while that of the Manas anticline occurred in 5 ka. Since 14ka or the later time of the late Pleistocene, the Dushanzi and Manas anticlines have risen by 40 and 95 m, respectively, implying uplift rates 2.7 and 6.8 mm/a for each.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 90711004 and 40775053"One Hundred Talent Plan" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Since no consensus has been reached in previous studies about how the summer climate in China will evolve in the first half of the 21st century, this issue is addressed here through sensitivity experiments by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 (AM2) with projected sea surface temperature (SST) trend. A total of two SST trends from the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) AlB are used. The two trends are from two coupled climate system models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 (CCSM3) and the GFDL Climate Model Version 2.0 (CM2), respectively. Results consistently suggest a substantial warming and drying trend over much of China, with a surface air temperature increase of 1.0-2.0℃ and a 10%-20% decrease in rainfall. Exceptions are the areas from northwestern China to western North China as well as the southern Tibetan Plateau, which are projected to be wetter with a rainfall anomaly percentage increase of 10%-50%. The drying in eastern North China has not been documented to date but appears to be reasonable. Physically, it is attributed to anomalous northeasterly winds at the rear of a low-level cyclone over the South China Sea, the Philippines and the subtropical western North Pacific. These conditions, which govern the climate of eastern China, are forced by the northward shift of convection over warm waters due to additional warming.
基金supported by National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950104)
文摘The controversy between the IPCC and Non-governmental IPCC(NIPCC) on the attribution of global warming are reviewed.IPCC holds that today's global warming is mainly due to anthropogenic activities rather than natural variability,which is emphasized by NIPCC.The surface temperature observations since the mid-20th century support the hypothesis of anthropogenic impact,but for the last one hundred years or so,natural forcings such as solar activity, volcanic eruptions and thermohaline circulation variations also have had great influences on the Earth's climate,especially on inter-decadal timescales.In addition,evidence suggests that the Medieval Warm Period(MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are closely associated with the solar activity over the past 1 thousand years.Over the past 10 thousand years, the North Atlantic cold events and solar activity are closely correlated.Nevertheless,the physical mechanisms of the solar-climate variability and interrelation are not well understood,yet.Notably,a prevailing view recently indicates that galactic cosmic rays may result in climatic cooling through modulating global low cloud cover.However,its process and mechanism need to be further investigated.
基金supported by grants to IGSNRR from China Global Change Research Program of MOST (Grant No. 2010CB950101)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05080100)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41071029)
文摘The general characteristics of climate changes over the past 2000 years in China,regional differences and uncertainties were analyzed based on the recently peer-reviewed high time-resolution climatic reconstructions.The results showed that there exists four warm periods of the temperature variation in China since the Qin Dynasty,including the western and eastern Han Dynasties(200 BC-AD 180),the Sui and Tang dynasties(541-810),the Song and Yuan dynasties(931-1320),and the 20th century,and three cold phases involving the Wei,Jin,and North-South Dynasties(181-540),the late Tang Dynasty(811-930),and the Ming and Qing dynasties(1321-1920).The Song and Yuan warm period is consistent with the Medieval Warm Period over the Northern Hemisphere,and the cold phases of the North-South Dynasties and the Ming and Qing dynasties are paralleled to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age,respectively.The 13th-15th century could be a shift to the wet condition of the climate,and the low precipitation variability is exhibited in western China prior to 1500.In the context of the climate warming,the pattern of the drought in north and flood in south is prevalent over the eastern China.In addition,the published reconstructions have a high level of confidence for the past 500 years,but large uncertainties exist prior to the 16th century.
基金supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2011CB808800)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41172312, 41272372 and 41240016)+2 种基金Geological Survey of China (Grant No. 12120ll120116)Technological Project of Jiangxi (Grant No. GJJ10623)a contribution to "111" Project (B08030)
文摘A Permian-Triassic(P-Tr) boundary section of continuous carbonate facies, which well recorded the biotic and environmental processes through the great P-Tr transition in the shallow non-microbialite carbonate facies, has been studied in Yangou, Leping County, Jiangxi Province. The P-Tr sequence is well correlated with the Meishan section according to the conodont biostratigraphy and the excursion of carbon isotopes. A series of high-resolution thin-sections from the P-Tr boundary carbonate rocks at the Yangou section are studied to explore the interrelation between environmental change and biological evolution during the transitional time. Six microfacies have been identified based upon the observation of the thin-sections under a microscope on the grains and matrix and their interrelation. Combined with the data of fossils and carbon isotopes, Microfacies 4(MF-4), coated-grain-bearing foraminifer oolitic sparitic limestone, and Microfacies 6(MF-6), dark shelly micritic limestone, should be the different responses to the two episodes of mass extinction and environmental events that can be correlated throughout South China and even over the world. The oolitic limestone of MF-4 is the first finding from the latest Permian strata in South China and it might be a proxy of an unusual environmental condition of high pCO2, low sulfate concentration and of microbial blooming in the aftermath of the latest Permian mass extinction. The micritic limestone of MF-6 containing rich micro-gastropods and ostracods probably represents the blooming event of disaster taxa in the earliest Triassic environment. The microfacies analysis at the Yangou section can well reveal the episodic process of the biological evolution and environmental change in the shallow non-microbialite carbonate facies throughout the great P-Tr transition, thus the Yangou section becomes an important complement to the Meishan section.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41406209,41176048)Chinese Polar Environment Comprehensive Investigation & Assessment Programme(Grant No.CHINARE2014-03-02)International Cooperation Project of Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration,SOA(Grant No.IC201309)
文摘A high resolution record of sea-ice concentration on the North Icelandic shelf during the last millennium has been reconstructed using a diatom-based sea-ice transfer function. The reconstructed sea-ice record for the top of sediment core MD99–2275 exhibits a slightly increasing trend over the last 1000 years. Prior to AD 1300 sea-ice abundance was generally below the mean value, suggesting the strong influence of warm waters from the Irminger Current during the Medieval Warm Period. A marked increase of sea-ice concentration indicates an abrupt change to colder conditions after AD 1300, corresponding to the onset of the Little Ice Age. The agreement between the reconstructed sea-ice concentration and IP25 data obtained from the same core, as well as with historical records of Icelandic sea ice, suggests that diatoms may provide a valuable tool for future quantitative reconstructions of past sea-ice variability. In addition, agreement between changes in the reconstructed sea-ice record and variations in the abundance of the major diatom components indicates that sea-ice conditions on the North Icelandic shelf are generally strongly influenced by changes in the strength of two different water masses, the cold Polar water periodically derived from the East Greenland Current and the warm Irminger Current derived from the North Atlantic Current. Our proxy evidence also indicates that variations in solar activity have a considerable impact on ocean dynamics, which in turn affects sea-ice abundance.
基金supported by the Major Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40890052)National Basic Research Progam of China (Grant No. 2007CB815901)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40805036)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS
文摘Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,to investigate the contributions of climate forcings(e.g.solar insolation variability,anomalous volcanic aerosols,greenhouse gas,solar orbital change,land cover changes,and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) to surface air temperature over East China in the past millennium.The simulation of the UVic Model could reproduce the three main characteristic periods(e.g.the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the 20th Century Warming Period(20CWP)) of the northern hemisphere and East China,which were consistent with the corresponding reconstructed air temperatures at century scales.The simulation result reflected that the air temperature anomalies of East China were larger than those of the global air temperature during the MWP and the first half of 20CWP and were lower than those during the LIA.The surface air temperature of East China over the past millennium has been divided into three periods in the MWP,four in the LIA,and one in the 20CWP.The MWP of East China was caused primarily by solar insolation and secondarily by volcanic aerosols.The variation of the LIA was dominated by the individual sizes of the contribution of solar insolation variability,greenhouse gas,and volcano aerosols.Greenhouse gas and volcano aerosols were the main forcings of the third and fourth periods of the LIA,respectively.We examined the nonlinear responses among the natural and anthropogenic forcings in terms of surface air temperature over East China.The nonlinear responses between the solar orbit change and anomalous volcano aerosols and those between the greenhouse gases and land cover change(or anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) all contributed approximately 0.2℃ by the end of 20th century.However,the output of the energy-moisture balance atmospheric model from UVic showed no obvious nonlinear responses between anthropogenic and natural forcings.The nonlinear responses among all the climate forcings(both anthropogenic and natural forcings) contributed to a temperature increase of approximately 0.27℃ at the end of the 20th century,accounting for approximately half of the warming during this period;the remainder was due to the climate forcings themselves.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40572126)Special Project of Seismological Community (Grant No. 200808013)
文摘On the north piedmont of Tianshan Mountains, China, the Kuytun River and Manas River transverse the Dushanzi and Manas folds, resulted in 7-level and 6-level pedestal terraces, respectively, which are the tectonomorphic marks of folding and uplift of the Dushanzi and Manas anticlines since the late Quaternary. We have collected samples from deposits of all terraces for OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) geological dating using the SMAR (single-multiple-aliquot-regeneration) method on fine grains. We have also performed dating using the ~4C method on the samples from the deposit of terrace T1 along the Kuy- tun River. The results show that all these deposits are of the later phase of the late Pleistocene. Comparison of terrace dating and climate change since 200 ka suggests that the terraces TI, T2, T3, T4 and T5 along the Manas River formed in 6, 8.5, 10, 14 and 32 ka, respectively. The incision time of Kuitun River's T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6 and T7 terraces were 1.7, 14, 20, 25, 32 50 and 100 ka years ago, respectively. The terrace T4 along the Manas River and T2 along the Kuytun River were formed dur- ing the late part of the late Pleistocene, i.e., 14 ka. Since 14 ka, the incision of the Manas River has generated three levels of pedestal terraces, while that of the Kuytun River has only produced one level of such terraces. The latest folding and uplift of the Dushanzi anticline took place in 1.7 ka, while that of the Manas anticline occurred in 5 ka. Since 14ka or the later time of the late Pleistocene, the Dushanzi and Manas anticlines have risen by 40 and 95 m, respectively, implying uplift rates 2.7 and 6.8 mm/a for each.