关于ENSO本质的进一步研究

基于ENSO是热带太平洋海气相互作用产物的科学观点,一系列的分析研究表明:赤道太平洋次表层海温异常(SOTA)有明显的年际变化(循环),并且与ENSO发生密切相关;ENSO的真正源区在赤道西太平洋暖池,赤道西太平洋暖池正(负)SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传到东大平洋,导致ElNino(La Nina)的爆发;在暖池正(负)SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传的同时,将有负(正)SOTA沿10°N和10°S两个纬度带向西传播,从而构成SOTA的循环;热带太平洋SOTA年际循环的驱动者主要是山异常东亚季风所引起的赤道西太平洋纬向风的异常。进而,可以提出关于ENSO本质的一种新理论,即ENSO实质上主要是由异常东亚季风引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的年际循环。

Representation of the Arctic Oscillation in the CMIP5 Models

The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)simulated in the historical experiment of26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)are evaluated.Spectral analysis of the monthly AO index indicates that 23 out of the 26 CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically significant spectral peak in the historical experiment,as seen in the observations.These models are able to reproduce the AO pattern in the sea level pressure anomaly field during boreal winter,but the intensity of the AO pattern tends to be overestimated in all the models.The zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies associated with the AO is dominated by a meridional dipole in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter,which is well reproduced by only a few models.Most models show significant biases in both strength and location of the dipole compared to the observation.In considering the temporal variability as well as spatial structures in both horizontal and vertical directions,the MPI-ESM-P model reproduces an AO pattern that resembles the observation the best.

Revisiting Asymmetry for the Decaying Phases of El Ni?o and La Ni?a

This study investigated the relationship be- tween the asymmetry in the duration of El Nifio and La Nina and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Nino and La Nina are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Nina in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Nio

E1 Nino events with an eastern Pacific pattern （EP） and central Pacific pattern （CP） were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions （REOF）. Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition （RSVD） analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind （SZW） anomalies and sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A possible physical process for the CP E1 Nifio was proposed. For the EP E1 Nino, strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone （ZCZ） centered on about 165°W. This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator. For the CP E1Nino, westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific, and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific. This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator; however, there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N, which favors the wanning of the north-eastern tropical Pacific. It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water （partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ） is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin, and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP E1 Nifio.

Preliminary analysis of the zonal distribution of ENSO-related SSTA in three CMIP5 coupled models

The simulated sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)over the tropical Pacific during El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is investigated in three representative coupled models:CESM1-CAM5,FGOALS-s2,and FGOALS-g2.It is found that there is a significant westward shift bias in reproducing the zonal distribution(ZD)of the ENSO-related SSTA in CESM1-CAM5 and FGOALS-s2,whereas the SSTA-ZD simulated by FGOALS-g2 is relatively realistic.Through examining the SSTA-ZD during both warm and cold phases of ENSO separately,the authors reveal that the SSTA-ZD simulation bias during the ENSO cycle mainly lies in the bias during the warm phase.It is noted that both the simulated zonal wind stress anomaly(τ’_x)and shortwave heat flux(SW)anomaly exhibit westward shift biases in CESM1-CAM5 and FGOALS-s2,while the counterparts in FGOALS-g2 are relatively reasonable.The westward shift biases in representingτ’_x and the SW anomaly(SWA)are attributed to the westward-shifted precipitation anomaly(PrA).It is suggested that the mean SST cold bias over the cold tongue region is the key factor behind the westward-shift bias in simulating the El Ni?o-related PrA,which leads to the westward-shiftedτ’_x and SWA.Collectively,the aforementioned anomaly fields,including the dynamic part(τ’_x)and thermodynamic part(SWA),contribute to the westward-shift bias in simulating the El Ni?o-related SSTA.This study provides clues for understanding the ZD simulation biases of ENSO-related fields;however,further in-depth investigation with more model simulations,especially the incoming CMIP6 simulations,is still needed to fully understand the ENSO SSTA-ZD simulation bias in coupled models.

Observational Zonal Mean Flow Anomalies:Vacillation or Poleward Propagation?

North-south displacements and meridional vacillations of the eddy-driven jet are widely accepted as the dominant cause of variability of the observational zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies(denoted [u]').In this study,a new idea regarding the primary variability of the observational [u]' in the middle latitude troposphere is presented.It is hypothesized that there are two different classes of primary variability of the observational [u]':the poleward propagation of the [u]'(abbreviated as PP) and meridional vacillations.To validate this hypothesis,one-point correlation maps of [u]' at 200-hPa during the boreal cold season(November-April) of every year from 1957-2002 are used as a criterion.Twelve PP years,in which the PP events are dominant in the variability of [u]',and 15 no_PP years,in which the PP events are recessive and the meridional vacillations are dominant in the variability of [u]',are examined.The results show that the variabilities of [u]' are different in the chosen PP and no_PP years.In the PP years,the PP events dominate the variability of [u]';however,the meridional vacillations are prevalent in the no_PP years.

Relationship between zonal position of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Euro-Atlantic blocking events and its possible effect on the weather over Europe

The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events.

A theoretical investigation of the tropical Indo-Pacific tripole mode

The E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） phenomenon in the tropical Pacific has been a focus of ocean and climate studies in the last few decades. Recently, the short-term climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean has attracted increasingly more attention, especially with the proposition of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） mode. However, these phenomena are often stud- ied separately without much consideration of their interaction. Observations reveal a striking out-of-phase relationship between zonal gradients of sea surface height anomaly （SSHA） and sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Since the two oceans share the ascending branch of the Walker cells over the warm pool, the variation within one of them will affect the other. The accompanied zonal surface wind anomalies are always opposite over the two basins, thus producing a tripole structure with opposite zonal gradients of SSHA/SSTA in the two oceans. This mode of variability has been referred to as Indo-Pacific Tripole （IPT）. Based on observational data analyses and a simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model, this study tries to identify the characteristics and physical mechanism of IPT with a particular emphasis on the rela- tionships among ENSO, IOD, and IPT. The model includes the basic oceanic and atmospheric variables and the feedbacks between them, and takes into account the inter-basin connection through an atmospheric bridge, thus providing a valuable framework for further research on the short-term tropical climate variability.

Responses of zonal wind at -40°N to stratospheric sudden warming events in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere

Based on the data at^40°N at different longitudes during different stratospheric sudden warming(SSW)events,the responses of zonal winds in the stratosphere,mesosphere and lower thermosphere to SSWs are studied in this paper.The variations of zonal wind over Langfang,China(39.4°N,116.7°E)by MF radar and the modern era retrospective-analysis for research and applications(MERRA)wind data during 2010 and 2013 SSW and over Fort Collins,USA(41°N,105°W)by lidar and MERRA wind data during 2009 SSW are compared.Results show that the zonal wind at^40°N indeed respond to the SSWs while different specifics are found in different SSW events or at different locations.The zonal wind has significant anomalies during the SSWs.Over Langfang,before the onset of 2010 and 2013 SSW,the zonal wind reverses from eastward to westward below about 60–70 km and accelerates above this region,while westward wind prevails from 30 to 100 km after the onset of2010 SSW,and westward wind prevails in 30–60 and 85–100 km and eastward wind prevails in 60–85 km after the onset of2013 SSW.Over Fort Collins during 2009 SSW,eastward wind reverses to westward in 20–30 km before the onset while westward wind prevails in 20–30 and 60–97 km and eastward wind prevails in 30–60 and in 97–100 km after the onset.Moreover,simulations by the specified dynamics version of the whole atmosphere community climate model(SD-WACCM)are taken to explain different responding specifics of zonal wind to SSW events.It is found that the modulation of planetary wave(PW)plays the main role.Different phases of PWs would lead to the different zonal wind along with longitudes and the different amplitudes and phases in different SSW events can lead to the different zonal wind responses.