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中国的经济“自然率”与货币政策规则:基于新凯恩斯动态模型的实证研究
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作者 孙皓 宋平平 《北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版)》 2019年第4期42-55,共14页
现代经济理论中的经济“自然率”可以为更好理解现实经济状态提供判断依据,在货币政策研究与实践中具有较高应用价值。本文首先对国内外经济“自然率”及其货币政策应用的研究动态进行分析。在此基础上,根据新凯恩斯动态模型的基本框架... 现代经济理论中的经济“自然率”可以为更好理解现实经济状态提供判断依据,在货币政策研究与实践中具有较高应用价值。本文首先对国内外经济“自然率”及其货币政策应用的研究动态进行分析。在此基础上,根据新凯恩斯动态模型的基本框架,构建多变量状态空间模型,结合中国数据估计模型参数和不可观测变量,对模型估计结果进行分析。研究结果表明,将Taylor规则中的自然利率、隐性通货膨胀目标等不可观测变量设定为具有时变性质,能够捕捉到我国货币政策操作中的更多信息。通货膨胀缺口和实际利率缺口是货币政策态势的有效指示变量,需要进一步提升经济“自然率”在中国货币政策研究与实践中的应用价值。 展开更多
关键词 经济“自然率” 自然 隐性通货膨胀目标 货币政策规则 新凯恩斯动态模型
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Examination of Resource Curse Hypothesis: Mineral Resources Exploitation and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Autonomous Region 被引量:2
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作者 Zhang Xinhua Gu Shuzhong +3 位作者 Wang Xingjie Wu Hong Zhou Hong Hu Yongjun 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2011年第1期63-70,共8页
The mineral resources exploitation stage and the economic growth rate are various in different regions of Xinjiang Autonomous region. Using the method of location quotient, this paper identifies and classifies the int... The mineral resources exploitation stage and the economic growth rate are various in different regions of Xinjiang Autonomous region. Using the method of location quotient, this paper identifies and classifies the intensive regions of three types of mineral resources, known as coal, oil and natural gas, respectively. The intensive regions of economic growth were also identified, according to the rate of per capita GDP growth at prefecture, autonomous prefecture and city. The relationships between different mineral resources and economic growth are different, for example, the relationship between economic growth and coal resource is positive, while the relationship between economic growth and oil resource, or natural gas resource is negative. This study empirically examines the effects of natural resources on economic growth of Xinjiang. The results show that whilst natural resources have a positive impact on growth, and can make a negative impact on growth through the transmission channels, such as investment, manufacture, human capital, and scientific and technologic innovation. Moreover, it studies the transmission channels, that is, the effect of natural resources on the other explanatory variables, and calculates the indirect effect of natural resources on growth for each transmission channel, and comprehensive effects of natural resources on growth. The calculated result of comprehensive effects indicates that the positive direct effects of natural resources on growth are shown to outweigh the negative indirect effect of Xinjiang autonomous region. 展开更多
关键词 mineral resources exploitation economics growth EFFECTS resource curse XINJIANG
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中国总供给曲线的估计及动态性检验
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作者 孙皓 石柱鲜 《现代财经(天津财经大学学报)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第7期86-93,共8页
本文应用时变经济"自然率"条件下的新凯恩斯模型对我国总供给曲线进行估计,并且对其动态性进行实证分析。研究结果表明,总供给曲线所描述的通货膨胀率与产出缺口变动关系与我国宏观经济态势的发展相吻合;产出缺口是通货膨胀... 本文应用时变经济"自然率"条件下的新凯恩斯模型对我国总供给曲线进行估计,并且对其动态性进行实证分析。研究结果表明,总供给曲线所描述的通货膨胀率与产出缺口变动关系与我国宏观经济态势的发展相吻合;产出缺口是通货膨胀率变动的Granger原因,并且产出缺口对通货膨胀率的影响具有时变性和非对称性特征;总供给曲线作用下的月度环比和同比通货膨胀率适度水平分别近似为0.35%和4.28%。 展开更多
关键词 总供给曲线 经济“自然率” 新凯恩斯模型
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