This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with th...This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.展开更多
Market-oriented economic transition since 1978 has led to remarkable economic development in China. In this study, we use the National Economic Research Institute （NERI） Index of Marketization and a panel data model...Market-oriented economic transition since 1978 has led to remarkable economic development in China. In this study, we use the National Economic Research Institute （NERI） Index of Marketization and a panel data model to investigate the quantitative contributions of marketization to China＇s total factor productivity （TFP） and economic growth. Our results indicate that marketization contributed 1.45 percentage points on average to China＇s annual economic growth rate during the period from 1997 to 2007 and accounted for 39.2 percent of the increase in TFP. Marketization significantly improved resource allocation. However, economic transition in China has not yet been completed and sustainability of future growth will depend on further market-oriented reforms.展开更多
This paper has deduced a non-parameter analysis framework that can estimate the sources of economic growth based on provincial data as samples. Result of the estimate indicates that between 1978 and 2010, TFP, labor a...This paper has deduced a non-parameter analysis framework that can estimate the sources of economic growth based on provincial data as samples. Result of the estimate indicates that between 1978 and 2010, TFP, labor and capital contributed to China＇s economic growth by 10.9%, 3.7% and 85.4% respectively. If the impact of global financial crisis is not taken into account, these figures should be 20.70/0, 3.3% and 76.0%. Contribution of labor to economic growth is the smallest, below 8%for most of the years. Share of TFP contribution increased before the 1990s despite wild swings, exceeding 50% in 1992, followed by continuous decline until well below 10% after 2005. Share of capital contribution decreased before 1990s with wild swings and maintained an upward trend after 1992, approaching 90% after 2005.展开更多
There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three dif...There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.展开更多
A comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed,and the entropy weight TOPSIS method isused to measure the optimization level of the digital economy and tourism industry structure of 30 provinces inChina from 2...A comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed,and the entropy weight TOPSIS method isused to measure the optimization level of the digital economy and tourism industry structure of 30 provinces inChina from 2012 to 2021.Moreover,models such as quantile regression and panel threshold are used to explorethe influence of the digital economy(DIG)on the optimization of the tourism industry structure(TIS)as well as itstransmission mechanism.The study reveals that DIG significantly promotes TIS,which remains valid after endogeneity and robustness tests;the impact of DIG on TIS exhibited a“U-shape”effect that first decreases and thenincreases,and its highest significance is at the 90%quartile level.Threshold model tests revealed a nonlinearthreshold effect with DIG and tourism total factor productivity(TTFP)as a single threshold and tourism technological progress index(TECH)as a double threshold,and the second threshold has the largest effect of 0.163.Mechanism analysis found that the mediating impact of the DIG on the TIS was mediated by increasing the TTFP,and the TECH accounted for the highest proportion of 12.15%.Regional analysis revealed that the role of DIG onthe TIS is Central>East>West>Northeast,and the empowering effect is more significant in the high digital economylevel area and the high tourism industry structure optimization area.展开更多
文摘This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.
文摘Market-oriented economic transition since 1978 has led to remarkable economic development in China. In this study, we use the National Economic Research Institute （NERI） Index of Marketization and a panel data model to investigate the quantitative contributions of marketization to China＇s total factor productivity （TFP） and economic growth. Our results indicate that marketization contributed 1.45 percentage points on average to China＇s annual economic growth rate during the period from 1997 to 2007 and accounted for 39.2 percent of the increase in TFP. Marketization significantly improved resource allocation. However, economic transition in China has not yet been completed and sustainability of future growth will depend on further market-oriented reforms.
文摘This paper has deduced a non-parameter analysis framework that can estimate the sources of economic growth based on provincial data as samples. Result of the estimate indicates that between 1978 and 2010, TFP, labor and capital contributed to China＇s economic growth by 10.9%, 3.7% and 85.4% respectively. If the impact of global financial crisis is not taken into account, these figures should be 20.70/0, 3.3% and 76.0%. Contribution of labor to economic growth is the smallest, below 8%for most of the years. Share of TFP contribution increased before the 1990s despite wild swings, exceeding 50% in 1992, followed by continuous decline until well below 10% after 2005. Share of capital contribution decreased before 1990s with wild swings and maintained an upward trend after 1992, approaching 90% after 2005.
文摘There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261042)The Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation(2024JJ7410)The Hunan Provincial Graduate Student Research and Innovation Program(CX20221095)。
文摘A comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed,and the entropy weight TOPSIS method isused to measure the optimization level of the digital economy and tourism industry structure of 30 provinces inChina from 2012 to 2021.Moreover,models such as quantile regression and panel threshold are used to explorethe influence of the digital economy(DIG)on the optimization of the tourism industry structure(TIS)as well as itstransmission mechanism.The study reveals that DIG significantly promotes TIS,which remains valid after endogeneity and robustness tests;the impact of DIG on TIS exhibited a“U-shape”effect that first decreases and thenincreases,and its highest significance is at the 90%quartile level.Threshold model tests revealed a nonlinearthreshold effect with DIG and tourism total factor productivity(TTFP)as a single threshold and tourism technological progress index(TECH)as a double threshold,and the second threshold has the largest effect of 0.163.Mechanism analysis found that the mediating impact of the DIG on the TIS was mediated by increasing the TTFP,and the TECH accounted for the highest proportion of 12.15%.Regional analysis revealed that the role of DIG onthe TIS is Central>East>West>Northeast,and the empowering effect is more significant in the high digital economylevel area and the high tourism industry structure optimization area.
