东营消费需求萎缩的原因及对策

消费需求对经济的拉动作用是近几年经济领域乃至社会各界非常关注的热点问题之一。为了较全面地分析东营市当前消费需求方面存在的问题和原因 ,找到改进的措施和办法 ,本文从城乡居民的生活收入。

A Study of Resource Curse Effect of Chinese Provinces Based on Human Developing Index

Traditional opinion considers that natural resources play an important positive role in economic development, while resource curse theory holds that natural resources usually obstruct economic increase. This debate needs further exploration. In most of empirical studies on resource curse theory, the economic development of an area is mainly evaluated by the Gross Domestic Product(GDP), however, the social and cultural contents of economic development are seldom considered. Thus, the Human Developing Index(HDI) was chosen to describe the comprehensive developing situation of an area in our study. Based on the panel data from the year of 2000 to 2011, the relationship between Human Developing Index and resource exploitation degree(RED) of 30 provinces in China(Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao were not included because of the restriction of data acquisition) was investigated by correlation coefficient analysis and regression analysis. We found that resource curse did exist over the entire country and its effect on 30 provinces were not exactly the same. According to the effects of resource curse, these provinces could be classified into four types: no resource curse provinces, slight resource curse provinces, severe resource curse provinces, and extreme resource curse provinces. Testing from two short time periods 2000–2005, and 2006–2011, the resource curse effect was not prominent. However, testing from the entire period of 2000–2011, the effect was obvious among each province.

The Role of China's High-Tech Zones in Its Regional Economic Development

National high-tech industrial development zones represent a major strategy of the Chinese government in developing high-tech industries and spurring regional economic growth. The effect of this policy is yet to be proven. Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities between 1984 and 2012, this paper investigates the effect of high-tech zones on regional economic development. Empirical results suggest that first, national hightech zones have remarkably enhanced regional GDP and per capita GDP growth, and this conclusion still holds true after multiple rounds of robustness test; second, the economic effect of national high-tech zones is subject to diminishing marginal return and compared with higher-tier cities, lower-tier cities benefited more from the creation of national hightech zones. This paper concludes that national high-tech zones where special policies are experimented and offered not only drive economic development but, if properly distributed across regions, may help reduce regional economic disparities as well. The results of this study provide important implications for the future distribution of national high-tech zones and the creation of other relevant policies.

Regional Difference in Social Capital and Its Impact on Regional Economic Growth in China

Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development.China is a country with high stocks of social capital.Using several different indicators of social capital,this study tries to research the regional disparities in social capital and the influence of social capital on economic growth of China in 1978-2004.Measuring social capital with indicators of associations,charities and blood donation rates,this study finds significant regional disparities in social capital at provincial level in China.Those indicators for social capital are highly correlated with regional economic performance.Statistical analysis shows that social capital has a significant and positive effect on a long-term provincial economic growth.This relationship exists after controlling policy,macro location factors,and per capita GDP in the initial year.The empirical findings indicate that institutions,culture and social relations are critical for regional development in China.Therefore,the creation and support of social capital should be paid more attention to when making regional policy.

‘Middle-Income Trap’ and ‘High-Income Waft＇： Challenges and Opportunities to China

The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.

Don＇t Overlook GDP and Investment： An Analysis of China＇s Current Economic Trend

In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.

China＇s Sovereign Balance Sheet and Its Risk Assessment

Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.

The Convergence Analysis on the Economic Growth and Energy Intensity Gap between Regional Sectors

In this paper,the authors have analyzed the relationship between energy intensity gap and GDP per worker gap of China's western and eastern provinces over the period 1997-2006.Using panel data model with lag adjustment,taking the above provinces and six industrial sectors (agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,industry,construction industry,transport,storage and post & telecommunications,wholesale and retail trades & catering industry,and other sectors of tertiary industry.) as the investigated subjects,the authors have conducted empirical study on the convergence of GDP per worker gap and the convergence of energy intensity gap with respect to the variation of GDP per worker gap,and have concluded that:First,the GDP per worker gap of the six industrial sectors and provinces are convergent,and of this,the convergence rate of GDP per worker gap of Construction Industry is the fastest,while that of Industry is the slowest.Second,the overall energy intensity gap between eastern and western provinces is convergent,that is,with the narrowing of GDP per worker gap between eastern and western provinces,the energy intensity gap converges,but its convergence rate is slower than that of GDP per worker gap.Third,energy intensity gap between various industrial sectors of the east and the west is either convergent or divergent,and there are differences.The energy intensity gap of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fisheries,industry,and construction industry is convergent,while that of the other three industrial sectors is divergent.Fourth,the convergence of the overall energy intensity of the western provinces is not in conformity with the convergence of the various industrial sectors,and there are significant differences,indicating that the western provinces and autonomous regions should take measures to more effectively improve their overall energy utilization efficiency at the industrial sector level.

A Study of the Awareness Level of Takaful Products Among Micro Enterprises in Malaysia

The small- and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs） play a vital role in the development of the Malaysian economy through its contribution of 32% of the country＇s growth domestic product （GDP）. However, the recent global financial crisis has exposed these enterprises to plausible risks that have resulted in some businesses being shuttered. Such predicament shows how crucial it is for SMEs to be prepared with some form of protection or Takaful to mitigate impending risks. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which micro enterprises are aware of Takaful and the benefits of its products. The study was conducted on respondents who fall into micro enterprise category located in Johor, Malaysia, and the research process involves a case study method which is in-depth interviews. The results of the current study provide an insight into how Takaful is regarded among SMEs and the need for these enterprises to be protected.

Collective Bargaining During the Crisis： The Portuguese Case

Following a period of significant development at the end of the 1990s, with economic growth rates greater than those of the European Union, the Portuguese economy stagnated in 2002 and even declined in 2003. The current context of international crisis has just interrupted the fragile growth trend initiated in 2004： In fact, real GDP, which increased by 1.9 percent in 2007, had a growth rate of zero in 2008 and declined by 2.9 percent in 2009. The crisis has abruptly increased the closure of companies and unemployment jumped from 7.3% in the second haft of 2008 to 10.1% in the forth quarter of 2009. Notwithstanding, social dialog was resilient to this situation of economic crisis, as shown by the number of collective agreements negotiated by the social partners, the number of workers covered by collective agreements and the observed increase in real wages. Additionally, social partners have agreed on a reform of the Labour Code. Are this data enough evidence of social concentration on crisis management？ This paper will analyze this issue, giving particular attention to collective bargaining in Portugal and the crisis impact on the industrial relations system and their actors

Technological Content of the Import of Services and the Transformation of Growth Patterns of China's Industrial Economy

Based on the latest approach for measuring technology content of import of services and with the contribution of total factor productivity(TFP) to gross industrial output as the indicator for measuring the growth pattern of China's industrial economy,this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of import technology content of trade in services on the development pattern of China's industrial economy between 2004 and2011.Result of econometric test reveals that the technology content of import of services has a significant positive effect on transforming the growth pattern of China's industrial economy.Moreover,import of new types of trade in services with high technology such as computer and information services has a much stronger positive effect compared with import of traditional trade in services with relatively low technology content such as transport.In terms of different industrial sectors,technology content of import of services has the greatest effect on transforming the development pattern of China's technologyintensive industrial sectors,followed by capital-intensive,resource-intensive and laborintensive sectors respectively.Transformation of the development pattern of China's industrial economy cannot be isolated from the system of global division of work.Against the backdrop of global service sector fragmentation,China should take the important opportunities in the development of global trade in services and give more attention to improving the quality of import of services in the interest of transforming the development pattern of its industrial economy.

Empirical Test of Wagner＇s law in New Public Management Countries＇ Tax Revenue

The essence of empirical test of Wagner characteristic in new public management countries＇ tax revenue is to test the influence of economic growth on tax growth since new public management movement. Under IMF statistical framework, by using E-G two-step method in co-integration test and Granger causality test and empirically testing of the gross tax revenue and classified tax revenue in Australian, Canada, France, America, Britain these five countries, we can find that most indicators in most countries do not confirm to Wagner＇ s law. With the growth of GDP, tax revenue as a percentage of GDP rises periodically but not permanently. This period can be called the validity period of Wagner＇ s law in financial scale.

The effects of local government investment on economic growth and employment: evidence from transitional China

Based on the panel data of 28 provinces in the year of 1987-2001, this paper examines the effects of the local government investment on economic growth and employment. The empirical result shows that the local government investment plays a significant positive role in economic growth and employment. However, while the proportion of local government investment to GDP had a remarkable rise after 1998, the elasticity of local government investment on economic growth declined, which shows that there is a big room for raising the efficiency of local government investment. Moreover. the empirieal examination shows that although local government investment had positive effect on employment, the elasticity had a decrease after 1994 when the tax-sharing system reform was put into practice. This shows that the positive role of local government investment on employment is also limited This paper argues that the role of local governments as investors must be weakened, and local governments of different levels should lessen direct economic intervention and concentrate on public regulation.

The impact of financial sector development on the economic growth of emerging countries： An empirical study for E-7 countries

Globalization, financial liberalization, financial integration, financial sector, and economic growth have been significant issues for many researchers. The studies have investigated the effects of the above issues to the economic growth of countries both theoretically and empirically. Since there has been conducted an enormous body of work, each of them may be grouped and studied separately. This paper focuses on the impact of financial sector development to economic growth and empirically studies the potential effect on the emerging E-7 countries, consisting of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and Turkey. The study employs panel regression methodology and the data set for modeling Gross Domestic Product （GDP） comprises annual data over 2001-2007, using basic variables which resemble financial sector development, namely market capitalization of listed companies （stock market capitalization）, bank capital to asset ratio, stocks traded, total debt service, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, real interest rates, and claims on private sector. The analysis indicates that the GDP may be modeled using the above stated macroeconomic variables with considerably high explanatory power, except for the real interest rates and bank capital to asset ratios.

SPECIAL ISSUE： DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME IN A TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY Changes in the labor share of GDP： a U-shaped curve

In this paper, we try to find some general rules and the structural factors that cause a fall in labor economic growth in countries all over the world, the by a U-shaped curve in which the tuming point is for labor share in primary distribution share. We show that, in the process of evolution of labor share is characterized $6,000 per capita GDP （in PPP, 2000）. We develop a model to explain this phenomenon that provides an in-depth explanation for Kuznets＇ inverted U hypothesis. Our findings indicate that the evolution of China＇s labor share is basically consistent with the model we have constructed. In addition, sectoral composition and the relative bargaining power of labor are also factors influencing labor share. These findings imply that labor share of primary distribution in China may enter an upward trajectory over the next two years. This process may be accelerated by the central government＇s policies for dealing with global financial crisis and by structural adjustment.

Health and Economic Growth in Ghana： An Empirical Investigation

In this paper, the growth effect of health in Ghana is examined for the period 1982-2012. Life expectancy at birth is used as proxy for health, and real per capita gross domestic product （GDP） for economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag （ARDL） bounds test approach to cointegration is used to estimate the short- and long-run effects of health on economic growth. The results show that good health significantly promotes economic growth, both in the short-run and long- run. Development policy should, therefore, aim at raising health sector investment to improve health conditions of the population.