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不确定性下直升机可修件监测系统经济性量化
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作者 黄天翔 王樱桥 +2 位作者 孙建红 陆中 金小强 《工业工程与管理》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期101-108,共8页
结构健康监测系统能够连续收集结构信息,有助于工程师采取适当的维修决策,确保结构安全,减少失效的风险成本。但结构健康监测系统在国内直升机方面的应用仍处于初步阶段,原因之一是监测信息和结构状态存在不确定性,导致其经济效益在投... 结构健康监测系统能够连续收集结构信息,有助于工程师采取适当的维修决策,确保结构安全,减少失效的风险成本。但结构健康监测系统在国内直升机方面的应用仍处于初步阶段,原因之一是监测信息和结构状态存在不确定性,导致其经济效益在投入前难以衡量,并且该系统非常昂贵,使得很难确定收集这些信息是否值得,从而阻碍了其使用和发展。因此,定量化不确定性下结构健康监测系统的潜在效益,对推动该技术的在国内直升机上的应用和发展具有重要意义。本文针对直升机可修件提出了一种基于贝叶斯决策的监测信息价值量化方法,利用振动信息与贝叶斯理论对结构状态进行概率化表征与更新,建立了不确定性下状态概率模型、损伤成本函数和监测不确定模型及其基础数据获取方法,实现了监测系统经济性量化。以贝尔427桨叶为例,对基于振动的直升机监测系统的经济性进行了量化。 展开更多
关键词 信息价值 结构健康监测 经济性量化 贝叶斯决策理论 视情维修
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基于风险综合评判的设备状态检修决策优化 被引量:99
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作者 潘乐真 鲁国起 +2 位作者 张焰 俞国勤 祝达康 《电力系统自动化》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2010年第11期28-32,66,共6页
针对目前在设备状态检修决策中尚未将设备状况与电网运行情况综合考虑的问题,提出一种计及设备故障风险及电网运行风险的输变电设备状态检修决策优化模型,以"综合风险费用最小"为优化目标,以同时检修、互斥检修、检修资源、... 针对目前在设备状态检修决策中尚未将设备状况与电网运行情况综合考虑的问题,提出一种计及设备故障风险及电网运行风险的输变电设备状态检修决策优化模型,以"综合风险费用最小"为优化目标,以同时检修、互斥检修、检修资源、电网安全等限制条件为约束。在充分考虑设备状态检修前后故障概率变化情况的基础上,采用禁忌搜索算法求解所建立的优化模型,通过风险经济性量化实现设备与电网运行风险的综合评判,得到技术经济综合最优的状态检修决策方案。对华东某地区电网的算例分析表明了所提出的优化模型及算法的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 状态检修 决策优化 设备故障风险 电网运行风险 风险经济性量化 禁忌搜索算法
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Identification of Quality Characteristics of Sun-cured Tobacco Leaves
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作者 柴家荣 王毅 +4 位作者 谢丽华 屈生彬 张晨东 钱颖颖 董华 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2013年第4期577-581,共5页
[Objective] The aim was to explore tobacco varieties which satisfy tobacco formula and is suitable to be grown in ecotopes simultaneously. [Method] Interior and exterior qualities of tobacco were compared and identifi... [Objective] The aim was to explore tobacco varieties which satisfy tobacco formula and is suitable to be grown in ecotopes simultaneously. [Method] Interior and exterior qualities of tobacco were compared and identified based on agronomic and economic characters of tobacco in fields. [Result] Yunshai No.1 was better in both agronomic and economic characters. Specifically, the fragrance was dominated by empyreumatique and aroma; the highly-qualified variety is fragrant and sweet, with little irritation, which gives the tobacco smoke a light, mild flavor. As for Virgini- a934, economic characters were better, but agronomic characters were just ordinary. Similar to Yunshai No.l, dominated by empyreumatique and aroma, the variety was with distinctive resin and herbaceous fragrance. What's more, it tasted good with high quality and usability. Cunsanpi was ordinary in agronomic characters, and poor in economic characters, with coordinated quality and chemical composition. It is fra- grant and the smoke is clean. However, the quality was not so high and it tasted not so good. Tengruan No.2 was good in agronomic characters, but poor in eco- nomic characters, which gives delicate fragrance, but not clean enough. Waiweiba and Mijie Qinggeng neither taste well nor smell sweet, performing ordinary in agro- nomic and economic characters. Hence, the two varieties seem bad in quality and ranks poorly. [Conclusion] In terms of sensory quality, the varieties from high to low were Yunshai No.1, Virginia 934, Cunsanpi, Tengruan No.2, Waiweiba and Mijie Qinggeng. 展开更多
关键词 Variety of sun-cured tobacco Economic characters Appearance and quality Chemical composition Sensory quality
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Failure of the Business Cycle Theory and Call for a New Theory 被引量:1
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作者 张金昌 《China Economist》 2017年第4期92-109,共18页
The US economy has emerged from the recent financial crisis and embarked on a path of recovery. A key response of the US government to the crisis was to restore the health of crisis-ridden financial institutions throu... The US economy has emerged from the recent financial crisis and embarked on a path of recovery. A key response of the US government to the crisis was to restore the health of crisis-ridden financial institutions through direct fiscal relief and continuous quantitative easing and pumping sufficient liquidity into the financial markets. Fortunately, this process did not give rise to widely feared vicious inflation or post-crisis depression. Does this suggest that as long as the central bank offers unlimited loans or economic assistance to crisis-ridden entities to restore their health, a crisis can be averted? If this conclusion holds true, does this mean that the theory of cyclical economic crisis has failed? What is the new theoretical methodology to avoid economic crises? The answers to these questions will guide us in preventing and responding to financial or economic crises in the future. 展开更多
关键词 economic crisis monetary policy cyclical crisis quantitative easing
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Conceptualizing and Measuring Economic Resilience of Resource-based Cities: Case Study of Northeast China 被引量:31
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作者 TAN Juntao ZHANG Pingyu +2 位作者 LO Kevin LI Jing LIU Shiwei 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第3期471-481,共11页
This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptat... This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Nineteen resource-based cities in Northeast China were analyzed using the indicator system. The results showed that Liaoning and Jilin provinces had higher economic resilience than Heilongjiang Province. Panjin, Benxi, and Anshan in Liaoning Province were the top three cities, while Shuangyashan and other coal-based cities in Heilongjiang Province ranked last. Metals-and petroleum-based cities had significantly higher resilience than coal-based cities. The differences in persistence, adaptability, transformation, and resilience among resource-based cities decreased since the introduction of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy in 2003. Forestry-based cities improved the most in terms of resilience, followed by metals-based and multiple-resource cities; however, resilience dropped for coal-based cities, and petroleum-based cities falling the most. The findings illustrate the importance and the way to develop a differentiated approach to improve resilience among resource-based cities. 展开更多
关键词 resource-based cities economic resilience Northeast China
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