对《基本RBC方法模拟中国经济的数值试验》的评论及其他

在这篇扩展的匿名审稿报告中 ,我们先主要针对原文中标准RBC模型对于中国数据的拟合能力以及原文作者拟合实际经济所采用的方法提出若干不同意见与建议 。

数字经济时代企业人力资源管理创新策略

随着市场经济的快速发展,科技也在不断地进步,各种技术与市场经济相结合,促进了一个数字经济的时代的诞生,并对世界经济的发展产生了新的影响。在新的发展环境下,企业必须加快转变和发展,提高生产效率,改善经营效能,提升开发品质。所以,怎样才能更好地发挥企业的效益,就显得尤为重要。但是,在目前的情况下,企业采用的人力管理方式并不能满足数字化经济时期的发展需要,在发展过程中还存在着许多问题。本文全面分析数字经济时代下企业人力资源管理中存在的问题,针对性提出人力資源管理模式的创新途径,旨在有效推动企业实现管理水平提升。

雄安新区的建立对山西经济的影响分析

伴随着我国经济社会的飞速发展,雄安新区作为国家级新区,它的建立辐射到周边多个区域,集合经济、生态、交通、教育、工业等多个领域,呈现出了强大的发展优势。山西地处太行山之西,位于河北、河南、陕西内蒙古等省区的交界之地,借助雄安新区的发展规划呈现出了新的发展趋势。因此,围绕雄安新区的建立价值及对山西经济的发展特点、影响区域展开探究,供大家借鉴参考。

Measurement of Economic Result in Public Organizations： A Departmental Analysis

The aim of this work is to demonstrate how public university hospital （UH） managers can improve the process of decision-making by using the measurement of economic value added to the society （EVAS） generated by these organizations. Thus, the economic values of the organization and its departments were calculated, according to the theory studied： measurement model of economic result of Slomski （1996）. It was considered the conduction of a case study in a public UH, evaluating its economic performance in a 3-year period. For the interpretation of results, the Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA） which categorized the departments of the hospital studied as efficient or inefficient was used. This study revealed that managers can improve the decision-making process by using the EVAS, since it has been established that this measurement of economic value has sensitivity to identify which of the economic value drivers should be emphasized in the management.

The Challenges of Assessing the Output of EmergentEconomies： The Case of Bahrain

Business analysts worldwide use the standard theories and tools of macroeconomics and finance to determine the investment, trade or production possibilities in foreign markets. These evaluations are generally supported by three sources： estimations of using country-specific macroeconomic data on which they can determine patterns of growth, inflation, unemployment, productivity, income per capita, etc.; timely data on current conditions and developments in production, income and spending; and institutional information on policy makers, business practices and financial markets. This paper focuses on the first two where we examine the publically available macroeconomic data for the Kingdom of Bahrain to determine their reliability. Among our findings are： （1） creating a reliable data base of macroeconomic data is difficult due to data revision and incomplete data gathering; （2） the movement of standard macro-variables is often unusual, leading one to question further the reliability of the data; （3） based on available data it appears that the growth in Bahrain has been driven almost solely by an increase in the number of people working, with little to no apparent rise in productivity; and （4） the growth of GDP will eventually be constrained by physical limits on population growth, and can be improved only if ways can be found to increase the productivity of the workforce.

Utilization of CO2 Injection to Improve Oil Recovery of the Handsworth Bakken Formation

The Bakken formation has become a prominent oil resource for south-east Saskatchewan, especially with the advent of horizontal well technology and new hydraulic fracturing methods. As more wells are drilled, there is a desire to determine whether there is potential for improved oil recovery and to evaluate the economic feasibility. This paper evaluates the benefit of implementing waterflooding, CO2 injection or WAG （water-alternating-gas） recovery methods for improved oil recovery of the Bakken formation. A simulation model resembling the study area was built using CMG-GEM （computer modeling group-generalized equation of state model） reservoir simulation package and a history match of the primary recovery data available was performed. Based on the simulation results, it was concluded that waterflooding had a significant influence on the oil recovery factor, although COz provided the highest increase in crude oil recovery, The capital expenditure for surface facilities and cost of injected fluid was the most economically viable for implementation of waterflooding. The WAG injection simulation results were similar to CO2 injection, except that reservoir pressure was able to be better maintained. Given that high-quality source water is available, waterflooding is the most economically feasible choice according to the simulation results obtained from this study.

Numerical Simulation of a Landfall Typhoon Using a Bogus Data Assimilation Scheme

A typhoon bogus data assimilation scheme (BDA) using dimension-reduced projection four-dimen-sional variational data assimilation (DRP-4-DVar),called DRP-BDA for short,is built in the Advanced Regional Eta Model (AREM).As an adjoint-free approach,DRP-BDA saves time,and only several minutes are taken for the full BDA process.To evaluate its performance,the DRP-BDA is applied to a case study on a landfall ty-phoon,Fengshen (2008),from the Northwestern Pacific Ocean to Guangdong province,in which the bogus sea level pressure (SLP) is assimilated as a kind of observa-tion.The results show that a more realistic typhoon with correct center position,stronger warm core vortex,and more reasonable wind fields is reproduced in the analyzed initial condition through the new approach.Compared with the control run (CTRL) initialized with NCEP Final (FNL) Global Tropospheric Analyses,the DRP-BDA leads to an evidently positive impact on typhoon track forecasting and a small positive impact on typhoon inten-sity forecasting.Furthermore,the forecast landfall time conforms to the observed landfall time,and the forecast track error at the 36th hour is 32 km,which is much less than that of the CTRL (450 km).

How to Measure Sports Brand Equity： A Proposal for Football Industry

As in many other industries, strong brands play an important role in football industry inducing sales for the clubs that own it. Brands financial values are not quantified in balance sheets, so quantifying them provides important financial data. This is the research topic. The research questions are： （i） How is the importance of the brand in the revenues of football clubs and （ii） what is the financial value of the brands Futebol Clube do Porto （FCP）, Sport Lisboa e Benfica （SLB）, and e Sporting Clube de Portugal （SCP）？ This investigation was based on an adaptation of the inter brand equity model. This model considers equity as the economic value generated as net profit of the company, which can be apportioned to the brand. The data was collected from the financial maps of these three clubs between 2005/2006 and 2009/2010 seasons. In order to adapt the model to the football industry, a panel of five experts of professional football club managers was questioned. These experts claim that in football industry, brand management contributes with 16% of the economic value, sport management with 63%, financial management with 16%, and other factors with 5%. The conclusion is that FCP has the most valuable brand, with about 54.5 m , followed by SLB with about 51.6 m , and finally by SCP with about 39.5 m.

A Strategy to Strengthen the US Economy

For decades, the United States＇ competitive position in global manufacturing has steadily declined. Analysts point to increasingly automated manufacturing processes, changing domestic demand factors, outsourcing, and over confidence in service export surplnses. However, Asian and European competitors, undergoing the same pressures, have been able to maintain a healthy percentage of their GDP in manufacturing by growing high techjobs while the United States continues to fall behind, Perhaps the most flmdamental and overlooked contribution to this decline is the lackluster performance of the United States education system. After comparing the performance of US students to that of the other G-8 nations in the critical disciplines of math and science literacy, US students rank last. Furthermore, the most recent PISA test results show US students rank in the bottom half of 30 participating nations in the ability to apply math and science concepts to real world problems. This is particularly troubling when one considers that among the compared nations, the US spends the most on math and science teacher compensation. If the US intends to successfully compete in the global manufacturing arena, significant changes to the education system must be enacted. A new strategy aligning the system with real world demands should begin with a national initiative to increase Pre-K enrollments, a paradigm shift from liberal arts to math, science, problem solving and critical thinking, standardized policies aligning high school graduation requirements with college and work place expectations, and standardized college and career readiness assessment programs. These steps combined with more rigorous secondary education teacher certifications, continued education and involvement with universities and manufacturing f＇mns within the community, should more adeq^tely prepare high school students for further study or to enter the skilled workforce. At the post secondary level, federal and state funding should be targeted to R＆D programs specificly to industrial design, engineering, and alternative energy. Industry investment in such programs should be federally incentivized to foster cooperative relationships between business and academia. Such relationships will ensure faculty spend time focusing on how their discipline relates to manufacturing and instilling the necessary skill sets, knowledge and abilities which graduates will need to compete in the global market. Such a revised system will position the US to create and keep high paying manufacturing positions on its way to sustainable economic growth.

Electricity Consumption and Spillover Effects A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For this purpose, a model is constructed that using a dynamic panel study approach. The model is estimated in a GMM framework in which a dynamic procedure is conducted along the balanced growth path for electricity consumption in each economy. In advance, the long run dynamic behavior of prices, GDP, and trade induced spillover variables is determined. In a further step, the short run dynamic mechanism is pursued by estimating the partial adjustment dynamic coefficient on the target level of electricity consumption. The analysis is conducted for industrial, as well as residential electricity consumption. Alternatively, the same procedure is estimated by the application of a fixed period model. The model provides a benchmark tool for electricity policy decisions and for electricity consumption projections.

航空气象的经济效应

国际航空气象服务的目的是对国际航空的安全、正常和效率作出贡献。过去航空气象把主要任务放在航空的安全、正常上，人们普遍没有意识到其潜在的经济效应。欧美一些国家已经较早地认识到了这一点，并已经为他们创造了巨大的效益，特别是随着数值预报技术的发展，航空气象的经济效应得到了更充分的体现。

Emergy Evaluation of Agro-ecosystem of Shiyang River Basin,Northwestern China

This paper presents an ecological analysis of agricultural systems in arid region of Northwestern China. Emergy analysis, a method for environmental accounting developed by H.T. Odum in the Eighties, is appropriate for this task because of its ability to transform different types of inputs to a common form （solar emergy） in order to allow scientific and objective comparisons across different period and regions. Taking Liangzhou and Minqin oases, located in the middle and lower reaches of the Shiyang River basin in Gansu province as a case study, the detailed structure of the agricultural process, input/output and emergy indicators of the systems are examined and compared for the years 1986 and 2000. Both the total emergy input and the total yield increased in the two oases. In Liangzhou Oasis the emergy of livestock production exceeded the traditional crop production, which still is the dominant production in Minqin Oasis. The emergy investment ratio, EIR, although increased in the investigated period, was less than 0.5 in both Liangzhou and Minqin oases, indicating that purchased materials and services were less than half the value of indigenous emergy sources exploited. As a consequence, the emergy yield ratio, EYR, was very high in both Liangzhou and Minqin oases. However, the increasing environmental loading ratio, ELR, and the decreasing environmental sustainability index, ESI, in the two oases illustrate a weakening sustainability of the two agro-ecosystems, and this tendency was more evident in the downstream Minqin Oasis, calling for more attention to the environmental degradation in the region.

Interplay between strong Allee effect, harvesting and hydra effect of a single population discrete-time system

The dynamics of a single population with non-overlapping generations can be described deterministically by a scalar difference equation in this study. A discrete-time Beverton- Holt stock recruitment model with Allee effect, harvesting and hydra effect is proposed and studied. Model with strong Allee effect results from incorporating mate limitation in the Beverton-Holt model. We show that these simple models exhibit some interesting （and sometimes unexpected） phenomena such as the hydra effect, sudden collapses and essential extinction. Along with this, harvesting is a socio-economie issue to continue any system generation after generation. Different dynamical behaviors for these situations have been illustrated numerically also. The biological implications of our analytical and numerical findings are discussed critically.